By week five of the college football season, we are able to hone in one who teams are. In many cases, we can go to the former college and NFL coach, the late Dennis Green and remember “They are who we thought they were.” Since we are talking about schools though, instead of Green’s Sociology lesson, we are going to stick to the numbers this week. The numbers will tell us what we need to know for the Week 5 Preview:
College Football Preview; Week 5
USC (4-0) @Washington State 4-0); Fri., 10:30pm EDT ESPN
The Palouse can be a real stumbling ground for visiting teams, but that is usually when it is mid-November and 30 degrees outside. With it being late September, we are looking for two quarterbacks, Sam Darnold and Luke Falk, to put up big numbers. Beyond the win over Stanford, USC has yet to play a consistent game from beginning to end this season. Darnold is the epitome of that. He is throwing at a 67% completion rate but is second in the country with seven interceptions. Washington State is 4-0 for the first time since 2001. Falk is besting Darnold by throwing for a 77% completion rate. But he is “only” throwing about 42 passes per game. He is overdue for one of those “chuck it up 60 times” games. After missing the Cal game with an injury, Trojans wide receiver Steven Mitchell is listed as a game time decision. Darnold needs every weapon he can get in a numbers shootout. USC is 59-9-4 all time in the series.
Indiana (2-1) @ Penn State (4-0); Sat., 3:30pm EDT Big Ten Network
Indiana played respectably in its season opening loss to Ohio State and then hammered Virginia and Georgia Southern. That means we still have a little left in our Hoosiers learning curve. They cannot afford to go 0-2 right out of the box in the Big 10 race. Quarterback Richard Lagow is not quite living up to last season, but the numbers are not far off. He is completing 58% of his passes again, but he is still throwing too many interceptions to touchdowns, (four touchdowns, 3 interceptions). The ability is there every game though. Here is where the numbers get tough for Indiana. Penn State is the only FBS team to have not allowed a touchdown in the opening drive of any half this season. Here are some more numbers. Sixty-six carries, 518 yards, four touchdowns. Those are the numbers for Nittany Lions running back Saquon Barkley, despite barely playing in the blowout win over Georgia State. And now he faces an Indiana team that has had a hard time shutting down the run this season. Last numbers on this one. The two teams have met 20 times since Penn State joined the conference in 1993. Indiana has won once.
Georgia (4-0) @ Tennessee (3-1); Sat., 3:30pm EDT CBS
The records make this look like a very even match-up. It could be. But don’t let numbers fool you. Georgia is coming off a beatdown of then-top 20 Mississippi State. The Vols are also coming off a win, but it was a too-close-for-comfort 17-13 over UMass the week after the heartbreak loss in Gainesville. Head coach Butch Jones may be 3-1 right now, but it probably feels more like 1-3. Tennessee’s offense has been consistently inconsistent this season. Putting together back-to-back quarters feels like it is asking for a lot. Starting quarterback Quinten Dormady is emblematic of this. His stats are decent enough, (861 yards and six touchdowns), but he can’t put together back-to-back drives. The best move for the Vols would be a steady diet of running back John Kelly. He is the most consistent player on offense with 450 yards and six touchdowns. The offensive numbers for Georgia are what you would expect for an undefeated team. Quarterback Jake Fromm has filled in quite nicely for the injured Jacob Eason. He has seven touchdowns and only one interception to go with his 650 yards. The running back trio of Nick Chubb, Sony Michel, and D’Andre Swift is averaging nearly 200 yards per game.
Mississippi State (3-1) @ Auburn (3-1); Sat., 6pm EDT ESPN
This is a game of big numbers. Big as in Mississippi State upset LSU 37-7 and then the next week got shellacked by Georgia 31-3. Big as in the only loss on Auburn’s schedule is to defending national champion Clemson. Granted, playing Georgia Southern and Mercer helps that cause. Here is something that is going to keep Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen awake at night. Against Clemson, the Auburn defense gave up only 96 yards rushing. Against Missouri, they gave up 124, but much of that was in the fourth quarter of a blowout win. They also have 33 tackles for loss. That means Mississippi State is going to have to have some big production from quarterback Nick Fitzgerald. To this point, that means 626 yards passing with seven touchdowns and three interceptions. He also has 287 yards rushing with another five touchdowns on the ground. Call him a one-man balanced attack. The real number is going to be in the standings. Whichever team loses has a real uphill fight the rest of the way in the SEC.
Clemson (4-0) @ Virginia Tech (4-0); Sat., 8pm EDT ABC
This is the highlight of the day. Virginia Tech is significantly better than most expected this season. Everyone knew Clemson would be good, but after losing vast amounts of offensive production from last year’s national championship team, they may be a little better than what some of us thought. What makes the Hokies eye-opening is freshman quarterback Josh Jackson. Apparently, he needed very little growth to be ready for major college football. He has completed 75 of 115 passes for 1,127 yards and 11 touchdowns against only one interception. He has also rushed for 144 yards and another touchdown. The downside of that is the Virginia Tech running game is so average that Jackson is the third leading rusher on the team. Clemson is coming off a pretty flat win over Boston College. The offense scored only seven points through the first three quarters of the game. It is the defense that has put the title talk back in Death Valley. The Tigers have given up less than 10 points per game on average over the first four games of the season, and they have not been playing Creampuff Tech. A road game in Blacksburg, with a quarterback who can sling the ball around the field may be enough for Clemson’s number to be up.
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