LWOS Bowl Projections Week 12

Our LWOS Bowl Projections Week 12 looks at which teams are most likely to go to each of the bowl games in the College Football post-season line up.
LWOS Bowl Projections Week 12

With “Rivalry Week” upon us we have a huge game in Columbus this weekend. Michigan plays archrival Ohio State in what is shaping up to be a national quarter-final. There is one weekend of true regular season action remaining, so here are the LastWordOnCollegeFootball Bowl Projections Week 12.

College Football Playoff

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
CFP Semifinal
#1 Alabama vs. #4 Wisconsin

Fiesta Bowl
CFP Semifinal
#2 Ohio State vs. #3 Clemson

National Championship Game
#1 Alabama vs. #2 Ohio State

No change up top for me, or the CFP Committee. If Ohio State beats Michigan, I think they are in no matter who wins the Big Ten.

Oklahoma can make a playoff case if they win Bedlam over Oklahoma State.

Washington and Colorado will have a shot if one of them wins the Pac-12.

Penn State will make for an interesting scenario if they win the Big Ten. Wisconsin’s overall body of work seems more playoff friendly. Either team winning arguably the best conference will make the committee’s job much harder.

Ohio State and Clemson will be the best one-loss teams if they win out.

There will be one spot for three conference champions from the Big Ten, Pac-12 and Big 12, provided my theory that Ohio State is in even without a Big Ten title.

New Years Six Bowls

Rose Bowl
Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Michigan vs. Colorado

Sugar Bowl
Big 12 vs. SEC
Oklahoma vs. Tennessee

Capital One Orange Bowl
ACC vs. Big Ten
Louisville vs. Penn State

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
At Large vs. At Large
Washington vs. Western Michigan

Explanation

Colorado took care of Washington State, and gets reeling Utah at home this week. The Buffaloes can clinch a Pac-12 title game appearance.

Either team from the Pac-12 North may be favored on a neutral field, but Colorado’s momentum, a hungry (well traveling) fan base, and the confidence in having beaten Washington State will propel them to the Rose Bowl as the true Pac-12 champ.

A rematch with Michigan with a healthy Sefo Liufao at quarterback will be quite the draw in Pasadena.

Florida has locked up the SEC East and gets Alabama in the conference championship game.

The Gators may hurt their cause for the Sugar Bowl if they are blown out by the Tide. Tennessee can finish with a better record than Florida if the Gators lose their last two at Florida State and versus Alabama.

Bowl Season Projections

Outback Bowl
Big Ten vs. SEC
Nebraska vs. Texas A&M

TaxSlayer Bowl
SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten/Notre Dame
Arkansas vs. Georgia Tech           

Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl
SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten/Notre Dame
Auburn vs. Florida State

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC
Iowa vs. Florida

Hyundai Sun Bowl
ACC/Notre Dame vs. Pac-12
UNC vs. Utah

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Big 12 vs. SEC
Kansas State vs. Georgia

Arizona Bowl
Mountain West vs. Sun Belt
New Mexico vs. Idaho

Valero Alamo Bowl
Big 12 vs. Pac-12
Oklahoma State vs. USC

Belk Bowl
ACC vs. SEC
Wake Forest vs. Kentucky

Birmingham Bowl
AAC vs. SEC
Tulsa vs. Ole Miss

AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl
Big 12 vs. SEC
TCU vs. LSU

Foster Farms Bowl
Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Indiana vs. Stanford

Russell Athletic Bowl
ACC vs. Big 12
Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia

New Era Pinstripe Bowl
ACC/Notre Dame vs. Big Ten
Pitt vs. Northwestern

Cactus Bowl
Big 12 vs. Pac-12
Baylor vs. Colorado State *

Holiday Bowl
Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Minnesota vs. Washington State

Military Bowl
AAC vs. ACC
Memphis vs. Miami (FL)

Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl
Big Ten vs. C-USA
Vanderbilt ** vs. UT San Antonio

Camping World Independence Bowl
ACC vs. SEC
Boston College ** vs. South Carolina

Quick Lane Bowl
ACC vs. Big Ten
Army * vs. Maryland

St. Petersburg Bowl
AAC vs. ACC
South Florida vs. North Texas **

Hawai’i Bowl
C-USA vs. Mountain West
Old Dominion vs. Hawai’i

Dollar General Bowl
MAC vs. Sun Belt
Toledo vs. Troy

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
AAC vs. Big 12
Navy vs. Texas **

Popeyes Bahamas Bowl
C-USA vs. MAC
Southern Mississippi vs. Ohio

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
MAC vs. Mountain West
Central Michigan vs. Wyoming

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
BYU vs. Mountain West
BYU vs. Air Force

Marmot Boca Raton Bowl
AAC vs. C-USA
Temple vs. Western Kentucky

Miami Beach Bowl
AAC vs. MAC
Houston vs. Eastern Michigan

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
C-USA vs. Sun Belt
Middle Tennessee vs. Appalachian State

AutoNation Cure Bowl
AAC vs. Sun Belt
Central Florida vs. South Alabama

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
MAC vs. Sun Belt
Miami (OH) vs. Arkansas State

Las Vegas Bowl
Mountain West vs. Pac-12
San Diego State vs. Arizona State

Gildan New Mexico Bowl
C-USA vs. Mountain West
Louisiana Tech vs. Boise State

* = Replacement team
** = APR (Academic Progress Rate) waiver

Explanation

Six-win Army and Hawai’i will be in ahead of the 5-7 APR teams. Army has two FCS wins, but will likely finish 6-6 after the Army-Navy Game, as they currently sit at 6-5.

Hawai’i looks headed for 6-7. With a win in their finale versus Massachusetts, the Warriors would get that sixth win. The Mountain West will want Hawai’i in their de facto home bowl game to face Conference USA.

Boston College and Texas will slide in at the bottom of the ACC and Big 12, respectively. Texas was on track for a traditional bowl game, but their stunning loss to Kansas puts them on track for a 5-7 finish.

North Texas and Vanderbilt fill in the APR teams. Ideally these teams would switch spots for more competitive bowl games.

The Heart of Dallas Bowl will not want to match up two teams from C-USA, so Vanderbilt replaces the Big Ten. The Mean Green will head to St. Petersburg.

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