It’s that time of year again- the week when my Twitter feed is full of “Better Dead Than Red”, and Goldy Gopher mocking Bucky Badger for not wearing pants (which, if you think about it, is kind of weird). Yes, this is Hate Week, also known as The Battle For Paul Bunyon’s Axe. To the blissfully uninitiated, it’s known simply as Minnesota versus Wisconsin.
Minnesota is coming off one of their best games of the year, a 29-12 victory over Northwestern. The offense got off to a great start with probably their best opening drive of the year, and the defense was stellar throughout, taking down quarterback Clayton Thorson seven times. Sophomore linebacker Blake Cashman had nine solo tackles and two sacks and was named Big Ten Defensive Player of the Week. Defensive tackle Steven Richardson, who’s having a fantastic season, played a great game as well. Dominating Northwestern is one thing, though; beating Wisconsin will be quite another.
Keys to the Offense
First and foremost, the Gophers cannot turn the ball over. Giving Wisconsin extra possessions will likely give them the game. Secondly, they need to be disciplined. If they back themselves up and get into third-and-long situations, the weakness of the passing game will bite them. Finally, they need to get the run game going. Normally this is no problem for Minnesota, but they haven’t faced anything like the fifth-ranked run defense in the country. For comparison, Nebraska‘s run defense is ranked 25th, and they held the Gophers to 85 yards. Wisconsin is particularly strong at linebacker, even with the season-ending injury to Jack Cichy, so establishing the run will be both crucial and difficult.
Keys to the Defense
The Badgers are deep at both running back and receiver. Corey Clement is by far the leading rusher with 1,040 yards and 11 touchdowns, but Dare Ogunbowale (451 yards, two TDs) and Bradrick Shaw (375 yards, five TDs) are capable backups who see their share of carries. The passing game has been inconsistent, but Jazz Peavy has emerged as the number one target. Tight end Troy Fumigalli and receiver Rob Wheelwright are second and third in yardage, while Alec Ingold and Kyle Penniston are tied for second in receiving touchdowns with two apiece.
Quarterback is the question mark for the Badgers. After Bart Houston got off to a lackluster start, Alex Hornibrook replaced him under center. Houston has seen a handful of snaps in each of the last five games and will likely do the same this weekend. Hornibrook, however, will presumably see the bulk of the action. He’s thrown for 1,214 yards, completing 58.5% of his passes and throwing eight touchdowns and seven picks.
I expect a great battle between the Gophers’ front four and the Badgers’ offensive line. Minnesota needs to get pressure on the quarterback, make him rush his throws, and build on last week’s seven-sack effort. As if that’s not enough, they need to hold the run game well under their average of 200 yards. It’s a tall order, but the defense has played very well the last several weeks. I’m not going to be the one to say they can’t do it.
Special Teams
Wisconsin kicker Andrew Endicott is 24 of 26 on PATs and 10 of 15 on field goals since taking over for the injured Rafael Gaglianone. That’s something to keep an eye on: might the Badgers be more likely to go for it on fourth and short rather than attempt a long field goal?
Bottom Line
As much as Minnesota has improved over the course of the season, I can’t see them taking down Wisconsin. I think the game will be closer than a lot of people are predicting, but Paul Bunyon’s Axe is likely to reside in Madison for another year.
Disappointed with my prediction? Here’s a video of Goldy Gopher and Bucky Badger on the giant slide at the Minnesota State Fair.
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