After an unprecedented Saturday of upsets at the top of the polls, the playoff picture has shifted… slightly. One conference appears to be on the path to landing two teams in the College football Playoff. Which conference will be determined over the next few weeks. Here’s how I see it playing out with the LWOS Bowl Projections Week 11.
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
CFP Semifinal
#1 Alabama vs. #4 Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl
CFP Semifinal
#2 Ohio State vs. #3 Clemson
National Championship Game
#1 Alabama vs. #2 Ohio State
Ohio State benefitted from the chaos up top in the rankings last week. The Buckeyes can win out, yet not win their own division. Penn State can potentially meet Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game.
That’s where Wisconsin enters the playoff picture. Ohio State can stay ahead of the Badgers given that they already beat Wisconsin on the road.
Ohio State’s playoff resume would be boosted with a win over Michigan. The Buckeyes are up to number two in the new CFP Poll. They have some leeway beneath them, with two spots separating them from the CFP and a New Year’s Six Bowl.
The CFP committee must continue to show they value conference championships. Which is why Clemson is in, as I see them winning the ACC title over whoever comes out of the Coastal Division.
If Clemson falls, Louisville slides right in as another one-loss, second place division team.
Alabama is in, no matter what.
New Years Six Bowls
Rose Bowl
Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Michigan vs. USC
Sugar Bowl
Big 12 vs. SEC
Oklahoma vs. Tennessee
Capital One Orange Bowl
ACC vs. Big Ten
Louisville vs. Penn State
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
At Large vs. At Large
Washington vs. Western Michigan
Explanation
I see USC winning the Pac-12 outright over Washington State, earning a Rose Bowl bid. This would mean Washington State took the Apple Cup from Washington, leaving the Huskies with two losses and no conference title game.
At 10 – 2, Washington would be a good candidate to land an at large berth in the Cotton Bowl.
Their opponent will be the Group of Five champion who finishes highest in the CFP poll. I still project MAC champ Western Michigan, who lands in at 13 – 0.
Currently, Boise State ranks ahead of Western Michigan. If WMU can actually go undefeated, they will likely jump a one-loss Boise State.
South Florida, Troy, and San Diego State must also be in contention for the Group of Five slot in the New Year’s Six. Troy’s loss to Clemson is shaping up to be a quality showing for the presumptive Sun Belt champions.
If one conference does produce two playoff teams, Oklahoma will settle for a Sugar Bowl appearance. The Sooners can finish 10 – 2, but won’t have a signature Big 12 title game win. Clemson and Wisconsin would have this notch in their belt that Oklahoma lacks.
Bowl Season Projections
Outback Bowl
Big Ten vs. SEC
Nebraska vs. Texas A&M
TaxSlayer Bowl
SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten/Notre Dame
Arkansas vs. Georgia Tech
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl
SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten/Notre Dame
Auburn vs. Florida State
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC
Iowa vs. Florida
Hyundai Sun Bowl
ACC/Notre Dame vs. Pac-12
UNC vs. Utah
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Big 12 vs. SEC
TCU vs. Georgia
Arizona Bowl
Mountain West vs. Sun Belt
New Mexico vs. Idaho
Valero Alamo Bowl
Big 12 vs. Pac-12
Oklahoma State vs. Washington State
Belk Bowl
ACC vs. SEC
Wake Forest vs. Kentucky
Birmingham Bowl
AAC vs. SEC
Tulsa vs. Ole Miss
AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl
Big 12 vs. SEC
Texas vs. LSU
Foster Farms Bowl
Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Indiana vs. Stanford
Russell Athletic Bowl
ACC vs. Big 12
Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
ACC/Notre Dame vs. Big Ten
Pitt vs. Northwestern
Cactus Bowl
Big 12 vs. Pac-12
Baylor vs. California
Holiday Bowl
Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Minnesota vs. Colorado
Military Bowl
AAC vs. ACC
Memphis vs. Miami (FL)
Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl
Big Ten vs. C-USA
Texas Tech * vs. UT San Antonio
Camping World Independence Bowl
ACC vs. SEC
Boston College ** vs. South Carolina
Quick Lane Bowl
ACC vs. Big Ten
Army * (**) vs. Maryland
St. Petersburg Bowl
AAC vs. ACC
South Florida vs. Duke **
Hawai’i Bowl
C-USA vs. Mountain West
Old Dominion vs. Air Force
Dollar General Bowl
MAC vs. Sun Belt
Toledo vs. Troy
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
AAC vs. Big 12
Navy vs. Kansas State
Popeyes Bahamas Bowl
C-USA vs. MAC
Southern Mississippi vs. Ohio
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
MAC vs. Mountain West
Central Michigan vs. Wyoming
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
BYU vs. Mountain West
BYU vs. Colorado State
Marmot Boca Raton Bowl
AAC vs. C-USA
Temple vs. Western Kentucky
Miami Beach Bowl
AAC vs. MAC
Houston vs. Eastern Michigan
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
C-USA vs. Sun Belt
Middle Tennessee vs. Appalachian State
AutoNation Cure Bowl
AAC vs. Sun Belt
Central Florida vs. South Alabama
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
MAC vs. Sun Belt
Miami (OH) vs. Arkansas State
Las Vegas Bowl
Mountain West vs. Pac-12
San Diego State vs. Arizona State
Gildan New Mexico Bowl
C-USA vs. Mountain West
Louisiana Tech vs. Boise State
Explanation
There may be more ACC Academic Progress Rate (APR) bids with Duke. If they can scratch out a 5th win at Pitt or at Miami, their APR can give them a bowl bid.
If the ACC gets two teams into the playoff, they will lack teams for their bottom tier bowls. For now, I have 5 – 7 teams in both bowls due to APR.
If Clemson and Louisville are in the playoff, Florida State will slide into the Orange. This would bump all the teams up a notch, with a 5 – 7 MAC or AAC school taking their place if no more .500 teams are available.
* = Replacement team
** = APR waiver
