With their victory over Purdue in Week 10, Minnesota continues to have a shot at winning the Big Ten West. The Gophers’ 7-2 record puts them in a three-way tie with Nebraska and Wisconsin. (Wisconsin would have the tiebreaker over Nebraska, having beaten the ‘Huskers two weeks ago). A victory in Lincoln this weekend would go a long way toward the Gophers earning a trip to Indianapolis next month. It would also allow them to re-take possession of the Broken Bits of Chair Trophy. (Not familiar with this particular trophy game? The Daily Gopher summarizes its origins here).
In some ways, Minnesota got very lucky with their schedule this season. Their Big Ten East opponents don’t include Michigan or Ohio State. (At the beginning of the season, I would have included Michigan State in that group; at this point, though, I think the Gophers would have a very real chance to beat Sparty). However, they have a very tough stretch of divisional games to end the season: at Nebraska, home against a resurgent Northwestern, and then a trip to Madison to face the Badgers. For now, let’s focus on this weekend’s match-up.
Keys to the Offense
Shannon Brooks missed last weekend’s game with an undisclosed injury, revealed only about 90 minutes before the game. In his absence, Rodney Smith rushed for 153 yards and three touchdowns. Both are listed on the position chart for this week, so presumably both will be active. It’s crucial that at least one of them has a big game, because the passing game has been anemic at best. The Gophers have just six passing touchdowns all season and rank 108th nationally. Receiver Brian Smith having been dismissed from the team doesn’t help. Unless one of the running backs gets hot and has a career day, or something suddenly sparks the passing game, winning this game will rest with the defense.
Keys to the Defense
The good news for the defense is that they may get to face a backup quarterback. Starter Tommy Armstrong suffered a scary injury last week against Ohio State. He appears to be okay, but coach Mike Riley hasn’t named a starter for this weekend. My guess is that the decision will come fairly late, possibly not until Saturday. Right now, it sounds as though senior Ryker Fyfe will start. Expect Nebraska to lean on the run game and Terrell Newby. Fortunately, Minnesota’s front four have been very good against the run this season.
The bad news for the Gopher Defense is that they’re getting thin at linebacker. Junior Cody Poock needs season-ending shoulder surgery and his expected replacement, Nick Rallis, was ejected for targeting in the second half against Purdue. (Side note: this was a horrendous call and I cannot believe it was upheld after review). Rallis, therefore, won’t be available for the first half. Additionally, the secondary needs to play well after a week in which they allowed four passing touchdowns to 3-6 Purdue.
Special Teams
Nebraska kicker Drew Brown has only missed two field goal attempts this season, both from over 40 yards. Minnesota’s Emmit Carpenter was named the Big Ten Special Teams Player of the Week after making field goals of 28, 52, and 53 yards against Purdue. His previous career long was 46 yards.
Bottom Line
This is going to be the toughest game the Gophers have played to this point. They have to be able to run the ball successfully, and the passing game has to be better. The defense has to do a better job in pass coverage, especially if Armstrong is able to play. Nebraska was clobbered by Ohio State a week ago and I expect them to come out fired up. Minnesota cannot afford to play from behind and will have to match their energy from the start.
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