Entering Week 5, with a full weekend of important games on deck, here are the LWOS Bowl Projections for Week 4. All rankings reflect the Last Word on College Football Top 25.
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
College Football Playoff Semifinal
CFP #1 Alabama vs. CFP #4 Washington
Fiesta Bowl
College Football Playoff Semifinal
CFP #2 Ohio State vs. CFP #3 Louisville
National Championship Game
#1 Alabama vs. #2 Ohio State
While the very top of the rankings took care of business in Week 4, the Wisconsin Badgers entered the Top 10 after stymieing then number 8 Michigan State, 30 – 6.
My CFP picks remain the same from a week ago, with the games looming in Week 5 holding a ton of relevancy in determining who will play in the New Year’s Six.
The weekend slate is highlighted by two Top 10 matchups: (3) Louisville at (5) Clemson, and (8) Wisconsin at (4) Michigan.
Friday night we get (7) Stanford traveling to (11) Washington to put the Huskies to the test in a game that will provide a front-runner for the Pac-12 North.
New Years Six Bowls
Rose Bowl
Wisconsin vs. Stanford
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M
Capital One Orange Bowl
Florida State vs. Michigan
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
Clemson vs. Houston
The games in Ann Arbor, Clemson, and Seattle will give the three winners a signature win in their respective campaigns to reach conference title games. I have all six teams involved: Louisville, Clemson, Wisconsin, Michigan, Stanford, and Washington in my top tier bowl projections.
Whatever the outcome in these games, I don’t see their places at the top in danger (barring a blowout). I can see some re-positioning, especially in the Pac-12, once we get a clearer picture in conference pecking order.
Bowl Season Projections
Outback Bowl
Big Ten vs. SEC
Michigan State vs. Tennessee
TaxSlayer Bowl
SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten/Notre Dame
Ole Miss vs. Virginia Tech
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl
SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten/Notre Dame
Florida vs. Nebraska
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC
Penn State vs. Arkansas
Hyundai Sun Bowl
ACC/Notre Dame vs. PAC-12
Pitt vs. Utah
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Big 12 vs. SEC
Oklahoma State vs. Georgia
Arizona Bowl
Mountain West vs. Sun Belt
Nevada vs. Bowling Green *
Valero Alamo Bowl
Big 12 vs. PAC-12
Texas vs. UCLA
Belk Bowl
ACC vs. SEC
North Carolina vs. Auburn
Birmingham Bowl
AAC vs. SEC
Tulsa vs. Missouri
AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl
Big 12 vs. SEC
TCU vs. LSU
Foster Farms Bowl
Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Indiana vs. Oregon
Russell Athletic Bowl
ACC vs. Big 12
Miami (FL) vs. Baylor
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
ACC/Notre Dame vs. Big Ten
Notre Dame vs. Minnesota
Cactus Bowl
Big 12 vs. Pac-12
Kansas State vs. Colorado
Holiday Bowl
Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Iowa vs. USC
Military Bowl
AAC vs. ACC
UConn vs. NC State
Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl
Big Ten vs. C-USA
Texas Tech * vs. Western Kentucky
Camping World Independence Bowl
ACC vs. SEC
Georgia Tech vs. South Carolina
Quick Lane Bowl
ACC vs. Big Ten
Army * vs. Maryland
St. Petersburg Bowl
AAC vs. ACC
USF vs. Wake Forest
Hawai’i Bowl
C-USA vs. Mountain West
Old Dominion vs. Air Force
Dollar General Bowl
MAC vs. Sun Belt
Western Michigan vs. Georgia Southern
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
AAC vs. Big 12
Navy vs. West Virginia
Popeyes Bahamas Bowl
C-USA vs. MAC
Southern Mississippi vs. Ohio
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
MAC vs. Mountain West
Toledo vs. Utah State
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
BYU vs. Mountain West
BYU vs. San Diego State
Marmot Boca Raton Bowl
AAC vs. C-USA
Cincinnati vs. Marshall
Miami Beach Bowl
AAC vs. MAC
Temple vs. Northern Illinois
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
C-USA vs. Sun Belt
Middle Tennessee vs. Appalachian State
AutoNation Cure Bowl
AAC vs. Sun Belt
Memphis vs. Troy
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
MAC vs. Sun Belt
Central Michigan vs. South Alabama
Las Vegas Bowl
Mountain West vs. Pac-12
Boise State vs. Arizona State
Gildan New Mexico Bowl
C-USA vs. Mountain West
UTEP vs. UNLV
Explanation
Adios California, welcome to the party Colorado. The Buffaloes went into Autzen Stadium and beat the Oregon Ducks 41–38 to move to 3–1 on the season. Colorado is just three wins away from their first bowl since 2007.
Cal took a step back by giving up 31 points in the fourth quarter to drop a crucial game 51-41 at Arizona State. The Sun Devils move to 4–0 on the season and go to The Coliseum to take on USC this weekend.
Defending Sun Belt champions Arkansas State have finally exited this week. After dropping their first four games, the Red Wolves do not look like the team that went 9-4 a year ago. The defense has never been the strong suite of Arkansas State, but with the offense not making up for its deficiencies, there may not be a bowl game in their future, which is a rarity for the team from Jonesboro.
Toledo has quietly moved itself into contention in the MAC. After losing coach Matt Campbell to Iowa State, the Rockets have shown no signs of letting up. Toledo is off to a 3-0, and have outscored their opponents 128-30.
Still tumbling are the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Their “ACC schedule” is looking more and more dire as the weeks go by. Duke went into South Bend and won a thriller 38-35. Notre Dame responded by firing defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder. The Irish have a couple (likely) gimmes left on the slate with Syracuse, Army, and NC State.
On the road at Syracuse will be the true test if Notre Dame will go down as the one of the biggest letdowns in recent memory. After contending for the playoff a year ago, the Irish will be fighting for any bowl game come December.
* = Replacement team
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