Week 5 features three top 10 matchups on the College Football schedule, that starts tonight with Stanford traveling to face Washington. Wisconsin will travel to the Big House, as they look to upset Michigan, and Louisville-Clemson should decide the best team in the ACC. Additionally, the SEC East could be decided by Tennessee vs. Georgia, and a Big 12 battle between early season underperformers Oklahoma and TCU takes place. Our panel of Steen Kirby, Yesh Ginsburg, John Bava, and Mike Loveall are on hand to offer their previews and predictions.
Tailgate Pick ‘Em Week 5 College Football Predictions Including Louisville-Clemson
#7 Stanford at #10 Washington (Friday 9:00 P.M.)
Line: Washington by 3.5
Steen: Stanford has 2 conference wins in this still young season and once again looks to be the unified, and physical team that everyone is used to from the Cardinal. They aren’t flashy, but they do have the best player in the conference, Christian McCaffrey, and can pick up yards on the ground. Washington has plenty of talent and is very well coached, but they don’t have the track record in big games that Stanford has. This is the biggest game in Seattle in years, and the first big test for the Huskies. Washington has more offense, and if their defense can get stops, I think hold field advantage gives them an edge. Washington 28, Stanford 24
Yesh: I trust Chris Petersen. A lot. He’s a tremendous coach who has already revamped the talent in the Washington program. This is his first real test at Washington as a national contender. I don’t know if he’s ready for the big time yet, but I have faith. Washington 21, Stanford 16
John: The power base in Pac-12 football has certainly shifted northward in 2016 and this inter-conference matchup between top ten teams is a perfect example. But both Stanford and Washington escaped upsets last week. The Cardinal needed a 13-0 fourth quarter run to beat UCLA 22-13, while the Huskies were taken to overtime by Arizona before escaping with a 35-28 win.
Whoever does a better job defending the run should be well-positioned to win this one. The pre-game talk will inevitably be centered on Stanford’s Christian McCaffery. And why not? His 145.33 rushing yards per game leads the Pac-12. But UW has a dynamic run game as well. The two-pronged attack of Myles Gaskin and Lavon Coleman has been a key cog in the Huskies 4-0 start.
Enthusiasts of old school smash mouth football should enjoy this one. Ultimately, Stanford’s recent experience in games with championship implications sees them through. Stanford, 20, Washington 17
Mike: This is a pivotal game in the Pac-12 North, with the winner having the inside track to the Division championship. It’s also a matchup between two of the conference’s three ranked teams. So, the winner is the clear favorite for the conference championship and a New Year’s Six Bowl, at a minimum. Both teams look strong on paper, but neither have overly impressed on the field. Stanford has wins over Kansas State, a shaky USC, and UCLA, where they squeaked one out late. They are clearly the better tested team. Washington needed overtime last week in their first real test against Arizona. The line here will entice people to go with the road underdog, but Washington presents a similar test to Stanford as UCLA, with a more solid offensive line. Every metric says go with the Cardinal. Which is why I’m on a limb with a Huskies win. Washington 31, Stanford 24
#8 Wisconsin at #4 Michigan (Saturday 3:30 P.M.)
Line: Michigan by 11
Steen: Playing in the Big House has not yielded much success for Wisconsin, but they come off a dominant win over Michigan State and just might be this year’s Iowa in the Big 10. The Badgers get yards on the ground, and play tough defense. Michigan has much the same formula, a run heavy attack, and a strong defense. The Wolverines have scored 40+ in four straight wins and with better athletes on both sides of the ball they should have an edge. Wisconsin is the best team Michigan will play until the last game of regular the season against Ohio State, but the Wolverines should prevail. Michigan 38, Wisconsin 21
Yesh: Look, Michigan is a really good team. Probably one of the best in the country. Wisconsin is an enigma, but the Badgers have been incredible when given a chance to shine. This should be a great game. I think Wisconsin is a much better team now with Hornibrook at quarterback. Both defenses are the strengths in this game, so this should be a battle throughout. Wisconsin 21, Michigan 20
John: This wasn’t expected to be a tussle between teams in the top ten before the season started. Then Wisconsin surprised LSU in week one and walloped Michigan State on the road last week. Suddenly, it looks like this might not be the last time the Badgers and Wolverines play this season. It’s possible they could meet again in the Big Ten Title game.
Wisconsin’s only hope at an upset might be in forcing turnovers. That will be easier said than done considering Michigan quarterback Wilton Speight has thrown just a single interception all year. And the Badgers defensive backs will be conceding a lot of height to players such as Amara Darboh and Jehu Chesson.
The Badgers have won just twice at the Big House since 1994. With Michigan riding a ton of momentum in Jim Harbaugh’s second year as head coach, they’ll be hard pressed to get a third this season. Michigan 41, Wisconsin 24
Mike: Wisconsin continues to prove people wrong. Michigan just keeps on winning. Wisconsin has impressive wins against LSU and Michigan State, but Michigan has thumped Colorado and Penn State in consecutive weeks. As much as it pains his many detractors, Jim Harbaugh looks to have the Wolverines in contention for a spot in the College Playoffs. Michigan shows the difference between the Big Ten East, and the Big Ten West. Michigan 35, Wisconsin 17
#11 Tennessee at #25 Georgia (Saturday 3:30 PM.)
Line: Tennessee by 3.5
Steen: Jacob Eason got no help last Saturday and the Bulldogs were rocked by a high scoring Ole Miss team. Tennessee aren’t quite as strong on offense as the Rebels, but their defense might be better, and unless UGA finds more playmakers on offense this game could get away from them quickly. Star running back Nick Chubb is out, and that puts a further dent in Georgia hopes. Tennessee came back against a Florida team with an anemic offense, as Josh Dobbs found the range he was needing all season. The Vols haven’t put all the pieces together yet to be an SEC title contender, but they are simply better than Georgia right now. Tennessee 35, Georgia 21
Yesh: Georgia was exposed last week while Tennessee finally got the Florida monkey off its back. If Tennessee plays like against Appalachian State and Ohio, this game would be close. But if the Volunteers are their Florida and Virginia Tech selves, this game will be a blowout. Tennessee 41, Georgia 14
John: For the first time this season, Tennessee is playing a true road game. And it’s quite the challenge as the undefeated Vols go “between the hedges” to take on a Georgia team looking to rebound after a 45-14 blowout loss to Ole Miss. UT hasn’t won in Athens since 2006.
If they want to escape Athens with a win, Tennessee needs to avoid the slow starts which have dogged them for much of the season. The latest example was in week four against Florida, when they trailed 21-3 at one point before outscoring the Gators 35-7 en route to a 38-28 win. Falling behind early on the road is not a recipe for success.
Bulldogs running back Nick Chubb might not be at 100 percent for this one. He was fairly limited due to an ankle injury last week and it showed in his final stats of 12 carries for 57 yards. It may be up to Brian Herrien and Sony Michel to shoulder an increased work load in the run game.
Ultimately, the dual-threat dynamo that is Joshua Dobbs gets things done and helps the Vols move to 5-0. Tennessee 34, Georgia 24
Mike: These two teams meet going in different directions. Georgia started off the season with an impressive win over North Carolina, where Nick Chubb returned from injury and rushed for over 200 yards. Since then, he’s tallied a total of 200 yards against Nicholls State, Missouri, and Ole Miss. Georgia escaped with wins against Nicholls State and Missouri, and was thrashed by Ole Miss last week. Meanwhile, the Vols opened the season with an overtime win against G5 Appalachian State. Since that close call, they’ve throttled Virginia Tech, handled Ohio, and had a program-defining win against Florida last week. If Tennessee can handle their success, they should be able to control the line of scrimmage between the hedges. Tennessee 41, Georgia 20
Oklahoma at #21 TCU (Saturday 5:00 P.M.)
Line: Oklahoma by 3.5
Steen: Oklahoma was disappointing against both Ohio State and Houston. Yes those were tough games, but the Sooners should expect to be at the level of those programs, not losing by multiple scores. Any way you slice it, Bob Stoop’s men have looked disorganized this season. TCU doesn’t have much of a defense compared to OU, but they have improved it seems after a rocky start through the first two weeks. Kenny Hill is a gun slinger, and the Horned Frogs will score, but OU has something to prove, and if they are going to contend for the Big 12 title they simply must win this game. Oklahoma 48, TCU 41
Yesh: I’ve been saying that TCU is very overrated since the first game of the season. The defense has major problems and the offense just can’t keep up with a lot of the teams it faces. Oklahoma is just too good, regardless of being outclassed against Houston and Ohio State. Oklahoma is going to roll in this one. Oklahoma 52, TCU 14
John: It could be argued that Oklahoma’s non-conference schedule was the toughest in the nation. The fact that Houston and Ohio State are now both in the AP top six lends credence to that notion. That partly explains why the Sooners are road favorites against TCU despite a 1-2 record.
This game has all the makings of a shootout. The two quarterbacks, OU’s Baker Mayfield and TCU’s Kenny Hill, have demonstrated their ability to sling the ball around the field. Hill’s 371.8 passing yards per game is currently sixth in FBS. Mayfield is tied for 15th nationally in yards per pass (9.3).
Oklahoma’s inability to force mistakes out of the opposition could become an issue. They currently rank 109th in turnover margin and still have yet to tally an interception on the year. But with their backs against the wall given their record, the Sooners somehow find a way to win. Oklahoma 38, TCU 34
Mike: Oklahoma had a desperately needed bye week after a rough start of the season, losing to Houston and Ohio State. A preseason CFP pick, Oklahoma finds themselves unranked after Week 4. TCU is one of the teams trying to fill a possible vacuum in the Big 12 with a high-powered offense. The national narrative is that Oklahoma is down and out, but they still have far more talent than TCU. And Oklahoma also has as a defense. Oklahoma’s CFP hopes may be over, but they still have a conference championship to play for. Oklahoma 42, TCU 31
#3 Louisville at #5 Clemson (Saturday 8:00 P.M.)
Line: Louisville by 1.5
Steen: If you’re just looking at this season’s body of work, Louisville should be favored by more. The Cards have scored nearly 60+ points in all four of their games and dominated a Florida State team, that at least recruiting wise, is one of the best two in the ACC. Lamar Jackson is a beast at QB, and while he’s been putting together a highlight reel, the rest of the offense and defensive have been posting national championship level performances.
Clemson has the big game pedigree and the traditional resume, but I sense a sophomore slump in these Tigers. They simply haven’t seemed as loose and free as Louisville, and with both teams playing the spread offense, I have to go with Louisville in this game, again based on body of work. Unless Clemson finds a way to slow down Jackson they will lose by multiple scores. Louisville 42, Clemson 24
Yesh: This is by far the game of the week. Clemson and Louisville are two Playoff contenders and the winner of this game will have an inside track towards the CFP. Clemson has honestly underwhelmed me so far, good showing against Georgia Tech notwithstanding. I think the Louisville O-line can create enough space to get Lamar Jackson running room, and he is untouchable once he gets in the open field. Louisville 42, Clemson 31
John: Saturday night’s marquee matchup takes place in Death Valley as Clemson welcomes a high-flying Louisville team to town. In a mere four weeks, the Cardinals have gone from potential ACC dark horse to legitimate CFP contenders. This became evident after Louisville’s week three blowout of Florida State.
It’s hard to put into words what Cards quarterback Lamar Jackson is putting together this season. The dynamic sophomore signal caller has amassed a total of 1,856 combined yards (1,330 passing, 526 rushing) though four games. His 25 total touchdowns is more than Alabama (24) and Ohio State (23) have scored as a team.
But the homestanding Tigers might have the formula to slow Jackson down. Their 125.8 passing yards allowed per game is third best in the nation. Only five schools have more interceptions than Clemson’s seven. And their pass rush is equally fearsome, having forced 13 sacks so far. Jackson will likely be facing his steepest test yet against a ball-hawking defense in front of what should be a raucous crowd. Clemson 45, Louisville 42
Mike: I am officially on the Lamar Jackson and Louisville train. Louisville comes into this game with all the momentum and almost nothing to lose. A preseason third-place team in their Division, they deconstructed Florida State two weeks ago and have a chance to take absolute control of the ACC this week. Clemson, on the other hand, has to be thinking that their time might be slipping by. After making it to the championship game last season, they expected to be the prohibitive favorite this season. They haven’t fared well against top opponents yet this season. Lamar Jackson and Louisville will close Clemson’s championship window and assert themselves as ACC favorites on Saturday. Louisville 41, Clemson 31
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