The divide between college football’s contenders and pretenders is starting to sort itself out, and week 4 will go a long way towards setting up which teams will be in contention for conference titles in the power 5 conferences. Clemson travels to Georgia Tech for a Thursday night game in Atlanta, Georgia and Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Arkansas, and Florida and Tennessee will square off in critical SEC matchups, Stanford faces UCLA in the PAC-12, and in the BIG 10 all eyes will be on Wisconsin vs. Michigan State this Saturday. Our panel of Steen Kirby, Yesh Ginsburg, John Bava, and Mike Loveall are back to preview and predict the best of week 4. See below for a look at how our panelists are doing this season.
Tailgate Pick ‘Em Week 4 College Football Predictions Including Wisconsin-Michigan State
#5 Clemson at Georgia Tech (Thursday 7:30 P.M.)
Line: Clemson by 9.5
Steen: Clemson is just traveling down the road to Atlanta, but this is still a tough short week road game against a team in Georgia Tech with everything to play for, and nothing to lose. The Tigers have looked like a team afraid to lose, and let loose, early this season, perhaps the pressure of being a top 5 team is weighing on them, as they haven’t gotten many headlines for their early play. Georgia Tech knocked off FSU in Atlanta last year, and ended the Seminoles playoff hopes, the Yellow Jackets will hope to do the same to Clemson by controlling the ball, and the clock with their running game. I don’t expect Clemson to win big, but their talent on both sides of the ball should be enough. Clemson 24, Georgia Tech 17
Yesh: This game feels weird this year. The Yellow Jackets are very under the radar after a disappointing (to say the least) 2015, while Clemson looks to be unable to live up to their super-high expectations early, especially on offense. Facing a triple option offense on a short week is usually a bad idea, but it’s not like Clemson spent real time studying South Carolina State film for last week. This feels like a close one with Thursday night craziness, but probably no outright upset. Clemson 27, Georgia Tech 24
John: Georgia Tech might be the quietest undefeated team in college football. At 3-0, they’ve already matched last year’s win total. But those three wins have come against Boston College, Mercer and Vanderbilt – hardly juggernauts by any stretch. Clemson will provide a much stiffer challenge even with the Tigers coming to Bobby Dodd Stadium.
But despite the preseason hype around Clemson considering the players who returned from their CFP runner-up campaign, it’s been a less than impressive start for the Tigers. After beating Auburn and Troy by six points each, they suddenly find themselves fifth in the AP poll after starting second. With a Thursday road game looming, could they be due for an upset?
As long as Clemson’s top-20 rush defense comes to play, they should avert such an outcome and shut down GT’s triple option. But Deshaun Watson and Wayne Gallman will have to step up their game on offense as well. Clemson 38, Georgia Tech 23
Mike: There’s nothing worse for a Top 25 team than traveling on a short week and playing a triple option offense. That’s the test that Clemson faces this week when they travel to Atlanta to play a resurgent Georgia Tech. Clemson had a slow start to the season, but final started looking like a title contender last week, albeit against an FCS team. Georgia Tech is trying to erase the painful memory of 2015. They’re much healthier this year and looked solid on both sides of the ball against Vanderbilt last week. This will be another ugly win for Clemson. Clemson 21, Georgia Tech 17
#12 Georgia at #23 Ole Miss (Saturday 12:00 P.M.)
Line: Ole Miss by 7
Steen: Georgia hasn’t looked sharp since they beat UNC at the Georgia Dome, and traveling to Oxford for a tough road game may not be easy for freshman QB Jacob Eason. Georgia has a good running game, and a good enough defense, but it will all come down to how well Eason can handle the Ole Miss defense on passing downs. Chad Kelly and the Rebels have proven they can score, putting up points in both of their losses this year to FSU and Alabama, but the defense is much more of a question mark. I’m surprised a 1-2 team is the favorite, even if they are at home, and I’m not convinced Ole Miss is as good as projected. For once I trust Georgia to win a big game. Georgia 38, Ole Miss 31
Yesh: I have no idea what to do with Georgia. The Bulldogs looked solid against North Carolina but have really been pretty awful the last two weeks. Which Georgia team will show up against Ole Miss? I’m not sure it matters, because Ole Miss won’t be squandering another 21-point lead. Ole Miss 41, Georgia 24
John: Georgia comes into Saturday’s matchup in Oxford boasting a ten-game winning streak against the Rebels. But the two programs haven’t met since 2012, Hugh Freeze’s second year as Ole Miss head coach. Since then, the program has emerged as a force in the SEC West and are heavy favorites against the Bulldogs this weekend.
This is despite the fact UGA are undefeated while Ole Miss have dropped two of their first three. But the manner in which both teams have won and lost their games has played a part. The Dawgs narrowly won their last two games against Nicholls State and Missouri. Meanwhile, the Rebels had 20+ point leads against both Florida State and Alabama only to come out on the losing end when all was set and done.
Ole Miss will need to be better against the run than they’ve been thus far. They gave up 334 yards rushing in last week’s loss to Alabama. If they can slow down running back Nick Chubb while getting another prolific passing performance from Chad Kelly, they should emerge victorious. Ole Miss 41, Georgia 27
Mike: It’s Week 4 and it’s already the 2016 last stand for Ole Miss. Sitting at 1-2, with crushing disappointments against FSU and Alabama, the Rebels will have to be mentally resilient and bounce back against Georgia or this season might go south quickly. They still have talent across the board, especially at quarterback. Can they get the run game going? Can they get to the freshman phenom on the other side of the ball? After starting strong, Georgia escaped a nightmare by slipping past Nicholls State in the last minute and needed a game winning drive from Jacob Eason to get out of Missouri with a win. The Grove won’t be as accommodating as Ole Miss plays with a chip on its shoulder. Ole Miss 31, Georgia 20
#11 Wisconsin at #8 Michigan State (Saturday 12:00 P.M.)
Line: Michigan State by 5.5
Steen: Michigan State comes off a big win against Notre Dame, as once again this year have surprised experts by playing better than their level of talent would suggest. The Spartans aren’t a flashy team with a lot of starpower, but they may upset the apple cart and win the Big 10 against the odds. A win at home vs. Wisconsin is essential towards that goal, and the Badgers know how to play stifling defense, as evidenced by their win over LSU where they contained Leonard Fournette, one of the best players in CFB. Wisconsin looked awful last week against lowlights Georgia State, and that alone gives me pause against picking them. This won’t be a blowout, but Sparty should win. Michigan State 24, Wisconsin 14
Yesh: How good is Wisconsin? That really depends on how good LSU is, which seems impossible to gauge. I think the Michigan State offense will find real purchase against this stout defense and make this potential great game pretty one-sided. Michigan State 35, Wisconsin 21
John: The perception of these two programs has been all over the place since the season started. After starting unranked, Wisconsin vaulted into the top 15 after a week one upset of LSU. Michigan State, meanwhile, looked less than impressive against Furman in their opening game.
Then the Badgers struggled at home against Georgia State and the Spartans thoroughly dominated Notre Dame in South Bend for most of the game last week. Suddenly, it appears MSU has the advantage when they welcome Wisconsin to East Lansing Saturday.
Further reinforcing this notion is the uncertainty at quarterback for Wisconsin. It appears that redshirt freshman Alex Hornibrook has wrested the starting job away from Bart Houston after the latter was benched in the second half last week. Ultimately, this game will come down to how well the Big Ten’s two highest ranked rushing defenses can limit their opponent’s effectiveness on the ground. Michigan State 27, Wisconsin 19
Mike: This is a case where the schedule might help the underdog. Wisconsin scored a big win over LSU in Week 1 and has had two tune up games to prepare for their conference opener. Michigan State is coming off the emotional win against Notre Dame. It will be interesting to see how much energy they have remaining in the tank. The last three between these have been decided by 6 points or less. One of those was in overtime and the and the last game in East Lansing ended on a successful Spartan Hail Mary play. Wisconsin with the upset. Wisconsin 21, Michigan State 14
#19 Florida at #14 Tennessee (Saturday 3:30 P.M.)
Line: Tennessee by 6.5
Steen: Florida has a great defense again this year, but they still haven’t figured out the formula at offense, and with a backup QB who couldn’t cut it at Purdue, it’s unlikely the Gators will be able to score that much in Knoxville. Tennessee is missing some defensive starters though, including star CB Cam Sutton, so perhaps that will help even the scales a bit. The Vols haven’t been able to get their offense going this year, Josh Dobbs has had a sputtering year at QB, and Tennessee has to get Jalen Hurd involved early and often in this game if they are going to get a win. Despite being Gatorbit by Florida for multiple seasons in a row, I think Tennessee has to be the favorite. Tennessee 13, Florida 6
Yesh: I have no idea what to think about Tennessee, either. The Vols looked like world-beaters against Virginia Tech (during the final three quarters, anyway) but had real trouble between the trenches against two Group of 5 teams. Florida has the athletes on defense to live in the Tennessee backfield all night, but it’s not like the Florida offense will move the ball at all either. Expect this to be a low-scoring affair, and not a particularly pretty one. Florida 10, Tennessee 7
John: If this is the year that Tennessee football is well and truly back as an SEC contender, Saturday’s game against Florida is a must-win. The Gators have won 11 straight over the Vols, the longest winning streak for either program in the history of a series dating back to 1916. Reversing that trend would be a huge confidence builder going into a gauntlet of a three-game stretch. It includes consecutive road games against Georgia and Texas A&M followed by Alabama making their way to Neyland Stadium.
But to do so, UT must figure out a way to move the ball against a Florida defense that leads the nation in total yards allowed per game (129.7) and points per game conceded (4.7). As impressive as those numbers are, they did come against overmatched opponents. UF’s Sagarin strength of schedule rating is 157th compared to Tennessee’s 50th. Expect a close game with the home team finally exorcising the “Curse of the Gator.” Tennessee 20, Florida 17
Mike: I’m a Tennessee guy, so naturally I have no idea how this is going to go. GameDay is in town, which doesn’t bode well for Tennessee. Neither does the uniform selection, the fan initiative, or playing a Florida back-up. The Gators won in 2013 and 2014 with lesser talent and a backup quarterback. Florida will be missing their top receiver along their quarterback, but the defense has been outstanding so far this season. I suppose the eleven year streak has to end at some point, right? Tennessee 23, Florida 20
#7 Stanford at UCLA (Saturday 8:00 P.M.)
Line: Stanford by 3
Steen: UCLA has been a disappointing team this year, and despite playing at home, a physical Stanford team looks set to march into LA and come out with a big win. Last week they defeated the other LA team, USC, as start RB Christian McCaffery controlled precedings. Look for UCLA to continue to muddle along, and Stanford to grind out a convincing win. Stanford 31, UCLA 14
Yesh: This UCLA team is basically built to beat Stanford–at least, that’s what Bruins coach Jim Mora planned on doing. Stanford is just more talented across the board and I see no reason why Mora would have been able to draw up a way to contain Christian McCaffrey when no one else has. Stanford 31, UCLA 17
John: Stanford has won eight in a row against the Bruins and are a slight road favorite for Saturday’s tilt at the Rose Bowl. Of course, the big story heading into this one is can UCLA slow down the Cardinal’s Heisman hopeful running back Christian McCaffery. Not surprisingly, he leads the nation with 235 all-purpose yards per game.
Bruins quarterback Josh Rosen has certainly shown the ability to sling it around the world. His 305.7 yards per game is 18th in the nation. But he’s also thrown four interceptions and is facing a Stanford defense that has forced three picks in their first two games. Ultimately, UCLA keeps it close with the Cardinal pulling away down the stretch. Stanford 26, UCLA 16
Mike: UCLA is a hard team to figure out this season. They have a better defense than most people give them credit for and a great quarterback. They are one play from being 3-0 and this being a Top 15 matchup at least. Stanford, on the other hand, just keeps chugging along in their business-like manner. I’m tempted to take UCLA in this game, but my stats guy says Stanford continues to march towards a Pac 12 North title. Something just seems to be missing in Westwood. Stanford 24, UCLA 17
#17 Arkansas vs. #10 Texas A&M (Saturday 9:00 P.M.)
Line: Texas A&M by 5.5
Steen: Arkansas can play really well when their balanced run and pass attack works its magic, but the Hogs have also been vulnerable this season, and Texas A&M can score, and rush the passer with a tremendous front 7. Trevor Knight has been a great fit for the Aggies, and Kevin Sumlin is starting to move himself off the hotseat. A win in Arlington would firmly cement Texas A&M in a two way race with Alabama for the SEC west title. Look for that to happen. Texas A&M 38, Arkansas 24
Yesh: This game is being hyped up as a potential thriller in the SEC West, but I’m not buying it. Texas A&M looks strong so far this year. Arkansas hype is based solely on the win over TCU, which I don’t think is a particularly good team this year. This is the same Arkansas squad that probably should have lost to Louisiana Tech. Texas A&M 37, Arkansas 10
John: This matchup between unlikely top 20 teams takes place at “JerryWorld” for the third straight year. Texas A&M won the previous two (both by a touchdown) and enjoys a four-game winning streak against the Hogs. These old Southwest Conference rivals first faced off all the way back in 1903.
A&M’s Trevor Knight and Arkansas’ Austin Allen are third and fifth in the SEC respectively in passing yards. And both teams are average at best defending the pass. As such, expect this game to come down to who can limit the big plays through the air. The fact the Aggies are more balanced on offense and average 237 rushing yards per game could tilt this game in their favor. Texas A&M 38, Arkansas 30
Mike: The two biggest surprises in the SEC this year meet in the Southwest Classic. They’ll be playing in front of almost 100,000 in AT&T Stadium, home of the NFL’s Dallas Cowboys. Expect some long distance plays with the Aggies uber-talented wide receiver trio. That’ll be assisted by Trevor Knight’s mobility. Arkansas will dial up a steady dose of the vaunted Razorback rushing attack with some Austin Allen passing to go along with it. Texas A&M’s overall talent, and Arkansas’ game film against TCU, allows the Aggies to take this one for the fifth straight year (although the last two have went to overtime). Texas A&M 31, Arkansas 24
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