After a supposed “down week” in competition this past weekend, ranked teams had scares against presumptive pushovers. Arkansas was the week’s big winner over TCU, while Georgia and Clemson showed they need improvement before their conference slates begin. With a big week ahead, here are my 2016-17 bowl projections after Week 2.
College Football Playoff
Peach Bowl
#1 Alabama vs. #4 Michigan
Fiesta Bowl
#2 Florida State vs. #3 Ohio State
National Championship Game
#1 Alabama vs. #2 Florida State
My CFP picks all held sway this week, so I’m leaving those alone.
The Big 12 did itself no favors with the big loser being TCU. The Horned Frogs lost a wild one at home to Arkansas.
With that big time win, Arkansas got the SEC back on track after their opening week sputter.
Oklahoma State lost in Stillwater to Central Michigan on a controversial Hail Mary hook and ladder touchdown with no time on the clock.
Oklahoma, Texas, and Baylor won in blowouts to give the presumptive top four of the Big 12 a 3-1 record on the weekend, with TCU the lone loss.
This coming week’s Ohio State at Oklahoma contest will set the tone for the rest of the season for the Big 12’s perception. The Sooners can erase some of the sting from their loss to Houston if they knock off the Buckeyes.
I still see the Big 12 and Pac-12 being left out of the playoff this year. Washington continues to mash lesser competition. Stanford’s visit to Seattle in Week 5 will go a long way in determining the PAC-12 North winner.
Arizona State survived a wild shoot out at home over Texas Tech and could be a factor in the PAC-12 South, though all their opponents won’t be as kind defensively as the Red Raiders.
New Years Six Bowls
Rose Bowl
Iowa vs. Washington
Sugar Bowl
Oklahoma vs. Tennessee
Orange Bowl
Louisville vs. Notre Dame
Cotton Bowl
LSU vs. Houston
I had high hopes for Clemson in the preseason. The Tigers have gone from my CFP projections down to the Orange and now out of the New Year’s Six altogether.
It may be a knee-jerk reaction, but Clemson has looked sluggish in its first two games versus Auburn and Troy. I can forgive an opening road game against Auburn, but a home struggle with Troy has me second guessing how far Deshaun Watson and company can go.
I have Louisville in the top non-CFP Bowl for the ACC, replacing Clemson. If Louisville can upset Florida State at home this coming Saturday, the Cardinals will vault into the playoff conversation, led by early Heisman candidate quarterback Lamar Jackson.
Bowl Season Projections
Outback Bowl: Big Ten vs. SEC
Michigan State vs. Texas A&M
TaxSlayer Bowl: SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten/Notre Dame
Ole Miss vs. Miami (FL)
Citrus Bowl: SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten/Notre Dame
Florida vs. Wisconsin
Music City Bowl: ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC
Nebraska vs. Arkansas
Hyundai Sun Bowl: ACC/Notre Dame vs. PAC-12
Virginia Tech vs. USC
AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Big 12 vs. SEC
Oklahoma State vs. Missouri
Arizona Bowl: Mountain West vs. Sun Belt
Nevada vs. Troy
Valero Alamo Bowl: Big 12 vs. PAC-12
Texas vs. UCLA
Belk Bowl: ACC vs. SEC
UNC vs. Auburn
Birmingham Bowl: AAC vs. SEC
Tulsa vs. Texas Tech *
Texas Bowl: Big 12 vs. SEC
Baylor vs. Georgia
Foster Farms Bowl: Big Ten vs. PAC-12
Indiana vs. Oregon
Russell Athletic Bowl: ACC vs. Big 12
Clemson vs. TCU
Pinstripe Bowl: ACC vs. Big Ten
Pitt vs. Minnesota
Cactus Bowl: Big 12 vs. PAC-12
Kansas State vs. Arizona State
Holiday Bowl: Big Ten vs. PAC-12
Penn State vs. Stanford
Military Bowl: AAC vs. ACC
UConn vs. Georgia Tech
Heart of Dallas Bowl: Big Ten vs. C-USA
Maryland vs. Western Kentucky
Independence Bowl: ACC vs. SEC
NC State vs. UL-Lafayette *
Quick Lane Bowl: ACC vs. Big Ten
Army * vs. Northwestern
St. Petersburg Bowl: AAC vs. ACC
South Florida vs. Wake Forest
Hawai’i Bowl: C-USA vs. Mountain West
Old Dominion vs. Air Force
Dollar General Bowl: MAC vs. Sun Belt
Western Michigan vs. Arkansas State
Armed Forces Bowl: Navy vs. Big 12
Navy vs. West Virginia
Popeyes Bahamas Bowl: C-USA vs. MAC
Southern Miss vs. Ohio
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: MAC vs. Mountain West
Bowling Green vs. Utah State
Poinsettia Bowl: BYU vs. Mountain West
BYU vs. San Diego State
Boca Raton Bowl: AAC vs. C-USA
Cincinnati vs. Marshall
Miami Beach Bowl: AAC vs. MAC
Temple vs. Northern Illinois
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: C-USA vs. Sun Belt
Middle Tennessee vs. Appalachian State
AutoNation Cure Bowl: AAC vs. Sun Belt
Memphis vs. South Alabama
Camellia Bowl: MAC vs. Sun Belt
Central Michigan vs. Georgia Southern
Las Vegas Bowl: Mountain West vs. PAC-12
Boise State vs. Utah
Gildan New Mexico Bowl: C-USA vs. Mountain West
UTEP vs. UNLV
Explanation
I welcome Wake Forest back to my projections this week, as they won at Duke 24-14. The Demon Deacons are 2-0, right where I have them in my season scenario. A win at home next week versus Delaware would have Wake half way to bowl eligibility.
Arkansas’ win in Fort Worth over TCU moves them up my SEC pecking order, and closer to a top-tier bowl.
Washington State and New Mexico also left my projections this week. The Cougars lost their opener to FCS team Eastern Washington, but could not bounce back on the road at Boise State. I do not see Washington State competing in the PAC-12 this year unless they get a run game going to complement Luke Falk’s air raid.
New Mexico lost to in-state rival New Mexico State 32-31. The Lobos were favored by double digits but squandered a nine-point lead in the fourth quarter. UNM faces Boise State and Air Force in divisional play, so their margin for error has decreased drastically.
* = Replacement team
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