After the “Biggest Opening Weekend Ever,” we have a shakeup near the top of the polls. The Houston Cougars made the most noise by beating Oklahoma, and have vaulted themselves into the national title picture. With a week under our belts, here are my Week 1 Bowl Projections.
College Football Playoff
Peach Bowl
#1 Alabama vs. #4 Michigan
Fiesta Bowl
#2 Florida State vs. #3 Ohio State
National Championship Game
#1 Alabama vs. #2 Florida State
Yes, I am projecting the first conference to get two teams into the College Football Playoff to be the Big Ten. Not only from the Big Ten, but the Big Ten East, to be exact.
Our former format of determining a National Champion, the Bowl Championship Series, set such a precedent in the 2012 BCS Title Game when fellow SEC West members Alabama and LSU met for the title.
While we now have a committee instead of polls and computers, I still see one or two losses total between rivals Ohio State and Michigan.
From my initial projections a week ago, I have left Alabama and Michigan in the final four. I switched Florida State for Clemson, and dropped my darkhorse UCLA Bruins out of the New Year’s Six completely.
The Bruins were a long shot guess, and were on thin ice to begin with. Their valiant 31-24 OT loss at Texas A&M puts them on pace to lose just enough games to be on the outside looking in.
New Years Six Bowls
Rose Bowl
Iowa vs. Washington
Sugar Bowl
Oklahoma vs. Tennessee
Orange Bowl
Clemson vs. Notre Dame
Cotton Bowl
TCU vs. Houston
Houston made a strong case to be in the playoff conversation, and I have them right up there with the elite in the country. For the Cougars to make the playoff, they will need to go unbeaten.
It’s possible that Houston passed their toughest test right out of the gate with a win over Oklahoma. Still to come are some sneaky road games in the AAC this season. Houston’s conference road games are at Cincinnati, Navy, SMU, and Memphis. The real game I see knocking Houston out of contention is the home game versus Louisville in their penultimate regular season game.
Iowa gets a second consecutive Rose Bowl berth by losing the Big Ten title, yet being the best option with the league’s top two teams going to the CFP.
I see Washington beating UCLA in the Pac-12 title game, but having two losses at the least.
I mentioned the CFP Committee’s emphasis on conference championships last week in this piece, and we shall see how much they value those if Ohio State and Michigan are at or near the top of the heap once the season is over.
The Big 12 may beat itself into mediocrity, along with the Pac-12. Oklahoma, TCU, Texas, and Baylor will be the class of the conference, but can any of them hold their losses to one?
My scenario calls for a one-loss Big Ten team, who won’t play for their own conference title to make the leap to the CFP. Will the committee give the Wolverines and Buckeyes a second chance (that they didn’t get in 2007)? Will they also follow the BCS era’s lead and value teams they believe to the best no matter what conference?
The “Best opening weekend ever” lived up to the billing, and now the next several weeks of college football have big shoes to fill.
Bowl Season Projections
Outback Bowl: Big Ten vs. SEC
Michigan State vs. Texas A&M
TaxSlayer Bowl: SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten/Notre Dame
LSU vs. Miami (FL)
Citrus Bowl: SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten/Notre Dame
Georgia vs. Wisconsin
Music City Bowl: ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC
Northwestern vs. Arkansas
Hyundai Sun Bowl: ACC/Notre Dame vs. PAC-12
Virginia Tech vs. USC
AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Big 12 vs. SEC
Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss
Arizona Bowl: Mountain West vs. Sun Belt
Nevada vs. Troy
Valero Alamo Bowl: Big 12 vs. PAC-12
Texas vs. UCLA
Belk Bowl: ACC vs. SEC
UNC vs. Auburn
Birmingham Bowl: AAC vs. SEC
Tulsa vs. Missouri
Texas Bowl: Big 12 vs. SEC
Baylor vs. Florida
Foster Farms Bowl: Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Indiana vs. Oregon
Russell Athletic Bowl: ACC vs. Big 12
Louisville vs. Oklahoma St
Pinstripe Bowl: ACC vs. Big Ten
Pitt vs. Minnesota
Cactus Bowl: Big 12 vs. Pac-12
Kansas State vs. Arizona State
Holiday Bowl: Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Penn State vs. Stanford
Military Bowl: AAC vs. ACC
UConn vs. NC State
Heart of Dallas Bowl: Big Ten vs. C-USA
Washington State * vs. Western Kentucky
Independence Bowl: ACC vs. SEC
Georgia Tech vs. UL-Lafayette *
Quick Lane Bowl: ACC vs. Big Ten
Army * vs. UNLV *
St. Petersburg Bowl: AAC vs. ACC
South Florida vs. Toledo *
Hawai’i Bowl: C-USA vs. Mountain West
Old Dominion vs. Air Force
Dollar General Bowl: MAC vs. Sun Belt
Western Michigan vs. Arkansas State
Armed Forces Bowl: Navy vs. Big 12
Navy vs. West Virginia
Popeyes Bahamas Bowl: C-USA vs. MAC
Southern Miss vs. Ohio
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: MAC vs. Mountain West
Bowling Green vs. Utah State
Poinsettia Bowl: BYU vs. Mountain West
BYU vs. San Diego State
Boca Raton Bowl: AAC vs. C-USA
Cincinnati vs. Marshall
Miami Beach Bowl: AAC vs. MAC
Temple vs. Northern Illinois
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: C-USA vs. Sun Belt
Middle Tennessee vs. Appalachian State
AutoNation Cure Bowl: AAC vs. Sun Belt
Memphis vs. South Alabama
Camellia Bowl: MAC vs. Sun Belt
Central Michigan vs. Georgia Southern
Las Vegas Bowl: Mountain West vs. Pac-12
Boise State vs. Utah
Gildan New Mexico Bowl: C-USA vs. Mountain West
UTEP vs. New Mexico
Explanation
I dropped Wake Forest and Boston College from last week’s projections, leaving open spots in the ACC’s bottom tier bowls.
I moved Army and UNLV into the bowl mix, facing each other in the Quick Lane Bowl. I had Army on the fringe of bowl eligibility, and that was without a win at Temple in my season predictions.
The Black Knights haven’t been to a bowl since 2010. If they reach six wins, and there are not enough bowl-eligible teams, they will be an attractive option to replace a team.
* = Replacement team
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