{"id":94737,"date":"2025-12-30T07:45:05","date_gmt":"2025-12-30T12:45:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/?p=94737"},"modified":"2025-12-24T14:40:52","modified_gmt":"2025-12-24T19:40:52","slug":"5-atp-players-for-whom-2026-could-be-make-or-break","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/2025\/12\/30\/5-atp-players-for-whom-2026-could-be-make-or-break\/","title":{"rendered":"5 ATP Players for Whom 2026 Could Be &#8220;Make or Break&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Predicting anything in tennis is a dangerous game. Throughout its long history, the sport has delivered every conceivable narrative arc. Early breakouts followed by fizzling out? Check. Slow starts transformed into late-bloomer glory? That too. If it could happen, it probably already has, so nothing should really surprise us anymore.<\/p>\n<p>That said, some troubling trends suggest that 2026 will be a defining year for certain players. It doesn&#8217;t mean their careers are doomed if things don&#8217;t go well, but we&#8217;re talking about the present moment and what needs to happen now. Here are five players who have everything to prove this season.<\/p>\n<h2><b>Taylor Fritz<\/b><\/h2>\n<p>Taylor Fritz is a veteran at this point. At 28, he&#8217;s neither a next-gen prospect nor an emerging talent. He&#8217;s smack in the middle of his prime. What he accomplishes now will likely define the peak of his career. So why is 2026 so crucial?<\/p>\n<p>Because he&#8217;s at a crossroads. Either he takes the next step and becomes a legitimate contender, or he continues hovering just <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/2025\/11\/18\/taylor-fritz-2025-season-recap\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_self\">below that elite<\/a> tier, occasionally winning titles but never seriously threatening at the biggest events.<\/p>\n<p>On paper, his 2025 season looked solid: 55 wins, 25 losses. The problem? It was essentially the same as 2024. No real progression, and in some ways, a step backward. In 2024, Fritz reached five finals, including the US Open and ATP Finals, winning two titles. In 2025, he made just three finals and won two. That&#8217;s not an improvement. If anything, that&#8217;s stagnation.<\/p>\n<p>More talented players are rising through the ranks, and if Fritz doesn&#8217;t elevate his game now, he risks becoming another Tomas Berdych: very good, but never quite good enough to challenge the elite. There&#8217;s certainly another level he can reach. Maybe he won&#8217;t become a Grand Slam contender, but he could absolutely become a regular Masters 1000 threat, something he hasn&#8217;t achieved yet.<\/p>\n<p>The direction of his career will be determined in 2026. It&#8217;s now or never.<\/p>\n<h2><b>Daniil Medvedev<\/b><\/h2>\n<p>In many ways, Medvedev has already accomplished more than enough. He&#8217;s won a Grand Slam, had legitimate shots at several others, reached world No. 1, and dominated the sport for stretches. He won&#8217;t be remembered as one of the all-time greats, but he&#8217;ll certainly be remembered as a great player who, at his peak, was a force.<\/p>\n<p>So what does he have to prove? Simple: whether he&#8217;s still relevant.<\/p>\n<div class=\"getty embed image\" style=\"background-color: #fff; display: inline-block; font-family: Roboto,sans-serif; color: #a7a7a7; font-size: 11px; width: 100%; max-width: 594px;\">\n<div style=\"padding: 0; margin: 0; text-align: left;\"><a style=\"color: #a7a7a7; text-decoration: none; font-weight: normal !important; border: none; display: inline-block;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gettyimages.com\/detail\/1195360521\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Embed from Getty Images<\/a><\/div>\n<div style=\"overflow: hidden; position: relative; height: 0; padding: 66.66667% 0 0 0; width: 100%;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" style=\"display: inline-block; position: absolute; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; margin: 0;\" src=\"\/\/embed.gettyimages.com\/embed\/1195360521?et=Gl43GfadTTZebyublA2ulw&amp;tld=com&amp;sig=PEtjCFBxq29uhLFVtXxBAGwxBBat1f_Bek-3Qnt087k=&amp;caption=true&amp;ver=1\" width=\"594\" height=\"396\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>We&#8217;ve seen the dominant version of Medvedev, and <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/2025\/10\/20\/daniil-medvedev-revival-from-us-open-collapse-to-almaty-champion\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_self\">at his best<\/a>, he&#8217;s still capable of that level. But we haven&#8217;t seen it consistently in a while. Let&#8217;s look at the numbers. In 2023, he won 66 matches, the most in his career. In 2024, that dropped to 46, a year many considered disappointing. <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/2025\/12\/05\/daniil-medvedev-2025-season\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_self\">In 2025, he won even fewer<\/a> (42), making it his least impressive season in years.<\/p>\n<p>He&#8217;s been noticeably more irritable and frustrated lately, which suggests something is bothering him. And why wouldn&#8217;t it? He&#8217;s only 29, nowhere near retirement, yet the decline is undeniable.<\/p>\n<p>That makes 2026 a test. Will he continue sliding into irrelevance, or will he recapture some of that former glory? Currently sitting at No. 13, he&#8217;s already in danger of losing key seeding positions, which means tougher draws, which could lead to earlier losses. It&#8217;s a snowball effect, and it&#8217;s picking up speed.<\/p>\n<h2><b>Andrey Rublev<\/b><\/h2>\n<div class=\"getty embed image\" style=\"background-color: #fff; display: inline-block; font-family: Roboto,sans-serif; color: #a7a7a7; font-size: 11px; width: 100%; max-width: 594px;\">\n<div style=\"padding: 0; margin: 0; text-align: left;\"><a style=\"color: #a7a7a7; text-decoration: none; font-weight: normal !important; border: none; display: inline-block;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gettyimages.com\/detail\/2169769079\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Embed from Getty Images<\/a><\/div>\n<div style=\"overflow: hidden; position: relative; height: 0; padding: 66.66667% 0 0 0; width: 100%;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" style=\"display: inline-block; position: absolute; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; margin: 0;\" src=\"\/\/embed.gettyimages.com\/embed\/2169769079?et=YH7RvTs8QolsIX52irW37Q&amp;tld=com&amp;sig=2FbF4DI96vRyLMzyU8boqQytZ0gqdhqvQv7wiUriNYg=&amp;caption=true&amp;ver=1\" width=\"594\" height=\"396\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Another Russian once touted as a future Grand Slam champion is Andrey Rublev. Unlike Medvedev, though, Rublev never hit those same peaks. He&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/2025\/11\/29\/andrey-rublev-2025-season\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_self\">won plenty of titles<\/a>, made a fortune, beat top players, and might end up in the Hall of Fame. But the big ones? Especially Grand Slams? That&#8217;s where the story gets bleak.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s been eight years since Rublev made his first Grand Slam quarterfinal at the 2017 US Open. Since then, he&#8217;s added nine more quarterfinal appearances. But here&#8217;s the kicker: <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/2025\/09\/04\/quarterfinal-curse-andrey-rublev-and-alex-de-minaur-struggle-to-break-grand-slam-barrier\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_self\">not a single semifinal<\/a>. He&#8217;s 0-10 in Grand Slam quarterfinals. For a 28-year-old who isn&#8217;t getting any younger, that&#8217;s a damning statistic.<\/p>\n<p>What&#8217;s gone wrong? It&#8217;s hard to say. He&#8217;s beaten top players before, but something doesn&#8217;t click at the majors. Whether it&#8217;s pressure or mental fragility, he hasn&#8217;t cracked the code. And 2026 is pivotal, especially considering he failed to reach a single Grand Slam quarterfinal in 2025, dropping him out of the Top 10 and dangerously close to falling out of the Top 20 entirely.<\/p>\n<p>This season is massive for Rublev. Winning a Grand Slam feels like a distant dream at this point, but will he even return to being a consistent Top 10 player? The talent is there, but talent alone won&#8217;t cut it.<\/p>\n<p>The big question is whether Marat Safin, now working with Rublev, can mold that raw ability into something less self-destructive and more focused. Safin managed it for himself, albeit briefly. If Rublev could capture even one of those magical Safin years, it would completely redefine his legacy.<\/p>\n<h2><b>Alexander Zverev<\/b><\/h2>\n<p>The poster child for &#8220;not having done enough&#8221; is, without question, Alexander Zverev. He was billed not just as a future Grand Slam winner, but as a multiple-time champion. That hasn&#8217;t happened. He still hasn&#8217;t won a major, and with each passing year, <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/2025\/12\/02\/alexander-zverev-2025-season\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_self\">more people question<\/a> whether he ever will.<\/p>\n<p>He remains a fantastic player. Even after his devastating ankle injury, he&#8217;s proven himself to be the third or fourth best player in the modern game. But the big one keeps eluding him. Every time he has a real chance, he falls short, proving he&#8217;s just <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/2025\/10\/05\/jannik-sinner-carlos-alcaraz-mentally-stronger\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_self\">not quite at the level<\/a> required.<\/p>\n<p>With Sinner and Alcaraz continuing to improve and younger players emerging, Zverev&#8217;s window is shrinking fast. Still, 2026 offers four fresh opportunities at the majors, assuming he stays healthy. That alone makes it a make-or-break year.<\/p>\n<p>At this stage of his career, there are only two things missing from his resume: a Grand Slam title and the world No. 1 ranking. Those two accomplishments could go hand in hand if he finally breaks through. Keep a close eye on Zverev this year. The spotlight will be on him constantly, and the pressure will be immense.<\/p>\n<h2><b>Stefanos Tsitsipas<\/b><\/h2>\n<div class=\"getty embed image\" style=\"background-color: #fff; display: inline-block; font-family: Roboto,sans-serif; color: #a7a7a7; font-size: 11px; width: 100%; max-width: 594px;\">\n<div style=\"padding: 0; margin: 0; text-align: left;\"><a style=\"color: #a7a7a7; text-decoration: none; font-weight: normal !important; border: none; display: inline-block;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gettyimages.com\/detail\/1198042748\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Embed from Getty Images<\/a><\/div>\n<div style=\"overflow: hidden; position: relative; height: 0; padding: 65.82491% 0 0 0; width: 100%;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" style=\"display: inline-block; position: absolute; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; margin: 0;\" src=\"\/\/embed.gettyimages.com\/embed\/1198042748?et=zELys5wMQnNgzEj6nfF31Q&amp;tld=com&amp;sig=W4Y6bnas7qgTZ-UFEz2GjOqd4v7gbiHYxHnyJcyqCaI=&amp;caption=true&amp;ver=1\" width=\"594\" height=\"391\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>You can&#8217;t make this kind of list without mentioning Stefanos Tsitsipas. The Greek star is 27 now, entering what might be the final stretch of his athletic prime. And yet, he&#8217;s nowhere near where he once was. Currently ranked No. 36 after a dismal season, the fall has been steep.<\/p>\n<p>He&#8217;s been playing <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/2025\/07\/04\/goran-ivanisevic-on-stefanos-tsitsipas-ive-never-seen-a-player-so-poorly-prepared-in-my-life\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_self\">lackluster tennis<\/a> for a while now, and the decline has shocked some but not others. It&#8217;s not all about what happens on court, either. There&#8217;s been plenty of off-court drama that&#8217;s affected his focus. He remains a polarizing figure whose potential never fully materialized, which is genuinely disappointing. He had Grand Slam-winning talent in his hands, but he never got it done.<\/p>\n<p>Still, 2026 offers a shot at redemption. You&#8217;d expect a strong push from him. Whether he can return to something resembling his glory days remains uncertain, but it&#8217;s hard to imagine him repeating the <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/2025\/12\/18\/stefanos-tsitsipas-2025-worst-season\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_self\">disaster that was 2025<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>If he does? Then 2026 will be remembered as the year Tsitsipas faded into irrelevance. Let&#8217;s hope it doesn&#8217;t come to that. Either way, it&#8217;s time for Stefanos. Make or break.<\/p>\n<p>Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Predicting anything in tennis is a dangerous game. Throughout its long history, the sport has delivered every conceivable narrative arc. Early breakouts followed by fizzling out? Check. Slow starts transformed into late-bloomer glory? That too. If it could happen, it probably already has, so nothing should really surprise us anymore. That said, some troubling trends [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5393,"featured_media":58339,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3,2,15913],"tags":[85,511,18,259,498,304,347],"class_list":["post-94737","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-atp","category-featured","category-opinion","tag-alexander-zverev","tag-andrey-rublev","tag-atp","tag-atp-tour","tag-daniil-medvedev","tag-stefanos-tsitsipas","tag-taylor-fritz"],"modified_by":"Steen Kirby","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94737","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5393"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=94737"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94737\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":94755,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94737\/revisions\/94755"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/58339"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=94737"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=94737"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=94737"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}