We have reached the business end of the second week in Flushing, New York, and have a blockbuster women’s semifinal on the docket. No. 1 seed Aryna Sabalenka squares off against No. 4 seed Jessica Pegula in a rematch of the 2024 US Open final. As always, we at LWOT offer our preview and prediction. Offering their insights are Jordan Reynolds, Zain Mustafa, Tope Oke, and Shane Black. But who will advance to the US Open final?<\/p>\n
Head-to-Head<\/strong>: Sabalenka 7-2 Pegula<\/p>\n Jordan<\/strong> Zain<\/strong> For Pegula to truly test the World No. 1, she will need to change her approach, serve with more aggression, and hope that Sabalenka\u2019s tendency to overhit in big matches reappears. Should those errors come, Pegula must seize every opportunity without hesitation. Yet, these remain significant \u201cifs.\u201d While the American has enjoyed a strong tournament run, Sabalenka\u2019s firepower and confidence may once again prove to be a step too far.
\nPegula has lost her last three matches without dropping a set against Sabalenka, including the 2024 US Open final, but four of those sets finished 5-7. Expectations were not overly high for the American before the tournament, but going under the radar has suited her. I have a feeling that Pegula will pull off an upset. Sabalenka receiving a walkover from Marketa Vondrousova in the quarterfinal may disrupt her rhythm, and I think Pegula can catch the world No. 1 cold with her relentless baseline consistency. Sabalenka will have lost to a different American at all four Grand Slams this season if Pegula prevails.
\nPrediction: Pegula in 3<\/em><\/p>\n
\nAryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula are set to face off at the US Open once again, this time in the semifinals, marking a rematch of last year\u2019s final. Sabalenka won that encounter in straight sets, 7-5, 7-5, and enters this match as the firm favorite once more. She has dominated their head-to-head record, leading 7-2, and her ability to dictate play with power and precision has consistently given her the edge. Sabalenka\u2019s aggressive baseline game, big serve, and relentless ball-striking have often overwhelmed Pegula. Pegula thrives as a counterpuncher, relying on her ability to stay on the baseline, maneuver opponents, and absorb pace. However, against the sheer speed and weight of Sabalenka\u2019s shots, that task becomes an enormous challenge.<\/p>\n
\nPrediction: Sabalenka in 2<\/em><\/p>\n