{"id":86735,"date":"2025-07-12T00:32:38","date_gmt":"2025-07-12T04:32:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/?p=86735"},"modified":"2025-09-04T22:47:51","modified_gmt":"2025-09-05T02:47:51","slug":"atp-wimbledon-final-best-bets-including-sinner-vs-alcaraz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/2025\/07\/12\/atp-wimbledon-final-best-bets-including-sinner-vs-alcaraz\/","title":{"rendered":"ATP Wimbledon Final Best Bets Including Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz"},"content":{"rendered":"

The 2025 ATP Wimbledon Open Final is here. Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz will meet for the 15th time in their careers, and their second time at Wimbledon, but their first Final. Here are my best bets for the match, as well as my overall prediction. Drop your predictions in the comments.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

ATP Wimbledon Open Final<\/b><\/h2>\n

Sinner \u2013 Alcaraz: Time 17:00<\/b><\/h4>\n

H2H: 5-9<\/b><\/p>\n

Carlos Alcaraz enters as a two-time defending champion at Wimbledon, but this will only be his second match against Sinner, having lost in four sets in the round of 16 at the 2022 Wimbledon Open. When the two meet in a Major, it tends to go more than three sets, and often the full five. Sinner is 1-3 against Alcaraz at a Major. Sinner’s last victory against Alcaraz in a competitive match came in 2023 in Beijing. Alcaraz has largely dominated this rivalry, and he’s 10-0 in his last ten matches. In fact, the last time Alcaraz lost was April 20th in a final at Barcelona. He’s 24-0 since that loss. Sinner is 8-2 in his last ten, and 1-2 vs Alcaraz this year, though this is their third Major final of the year.<\/p>\n

Best Bet to Make for Sinner<\/b><\/p>\n

If you’re running with Sinner, the best way to play this is straight. Sinner has enough value at 2.14 to make a profit without having to risk making a more narrow prediction. Sinner has a victory over Alcaraz at Wimbledon, and that should count for something since it’s their only match on grass. If this were on clay, Alcaraz would be a much larger favorite. Was Sinner able to learn enough from his loss to Alcaraz in the French Open? If there’s another thing that stands out for Sinner, it would be the competition he’s beaten at Wimbledon already. I’m not saying Alcaraz has faced chicken feed, but Taylor Fritz took Alcaraz to the limit in the semifinal while Sinner cruised past Djokovic.<\/p>\n

That being said, Sinner <\/b><\/span>winning is a value bet for sure.<\/b><\/p>\n

Value bet\/ the best odds: Sinner winning @2.14 @1xBetfair<\/b><\/p>\n

Best Bet to Make for Alcaraz<\/b><\/p>\n

Alcaraz is the best player in the world right now, and it’s not very close. Aside from having won Wimbledon the last two years in a row, Alcaraz has five tournament victories, one major this year, and five Majors overall. When you compare his overall record to Sinner’s, it’s not particularly close either. He’s got nearly double the wins, but only two more losses. At 48-5 on the year, Alcaraz has all the confidence in the world. He’s also 11-0 on grass this year, and Sinner is 7-1 on grass. Alcaraz should win, but expect this one to go the distance.<\/p>\n

That being said,\u00a0 <\/span>Alcaraz winning is a value bet for sure.<\/b><\/p>\n

Value bet\/ the best odds: Alcaraz winning @1.83 @Bet365<\/b><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Best Bet to Make\/My Pick<\/b><\/p>\n

I have yet to make a really odd pick on the year, and I don’t think the pick I’m making here is odd so much as the odds on my pick are odd. I think Alcaraz is going to win this, but it’s going to go five sets. They’ve only played one Major against each other without going five sets, and that one went four. Part of me wants to run with a correct score of 3:2, which is literally the same thing as picking over 4.5 in context, but people would scoff if I said a 5.5 bet would be wise. If you feel like I’m right about the number of sets, and you wanna run 3:2 on Alcaraz, maybe throw down $20-$50 on each and see what happens.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

That being said, Over 4.5 sets <\/strong><\/span>is a value bet for sure.<\/b><\/p>\n

Value bet\/ the best odds:\u00a0 Over 4.5 sets <\/strong><\/span> @3.00 @Unibet<\/b><\/p>\n

Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The 2025 ATP Wimbledon Open Final is here. Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz will meet for the 15th time in their careers, and their second time at Wimbledon, but their first Final. Here are my best bets for the match, as well as my overall prediction. Drop your predictions in the comments.\u00a0\u00a0 ATP Wimbledon Open […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5481,"featured_media":84868,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[17400],"tags":[43062,43085,43076,17399,42624,5862],"class_list":["post-86735","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-best-bets","tag-2025-wimbledon","tag-2025-wimbledon-open","tag-atp-wimbledon","tag-best-bets","tag-carlos-alacaraz","tag-jannik-sinner"],"modified_by":"Yesh Ginsburg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86735","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5481"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=86735"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86735\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":86910,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86735\/revisions\/86910"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/84868"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=86735"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=86735"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=86735"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}