{"id":108833,"date":"2026-07-20T21:00:42","date_gmt":"2026-07-21T01:00:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/?p=108833"},"modified":"2026-07-20T19:44:30","modified_gmt":"2026-07-20T23:44:30","slug":"atp-estoril-best-bets-gaubas-carreno-busta","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/2026\/07\/20\/atp-estoril-best-bets-gaubas-carreno-busta\/","title":{"rendered":"ATP Estoril Best Bets Featuring Vilius Gaubas Vs Pablo Carreno-Busta"},"content":{"rendered":"

The ATP Estoril event<\/a> is part of the very brief post-Wimbledon clay swing in Europe. The tournament used to be held in April, but it recently got moved into the post-Wimbledon slot as a summer clay showcase. There are plenty of Portuguese players in the field, trying to make a successful showing at their home-nation tournament. This is a popular, well-attended event despite its relatively small place within the larger tour structure. It is arguably the best and most enthusiastically supported ATP 250 event on the whole tour, so the athletes participating know they won’t be playing before quiet, uninvolved crowds. The 2026 ATP Estoril<\/a> drama should be a fascinating tournament to watch, with the first round continuing on Tuesday.\u00a0LWOS has our best bets for three matches. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.<\/span><\/p>\n

ATP Estoril<\/b><\/h2>\n

Gonzalo Bueno \u2013 Tiago Pereira: 7:00 EST<\/b><\/h4>\n

H2H: 0-0<\/b><\/p>\n

Gonzalo Bueno is the much higher-ranked player of the two, checking in at No. 180 compared to Tiago Pereira’s No. 371 ranking. You can see why there is a pronounced differential in the rankings, with Bueno having a 22-18 clay record in 2026 while Pereira is 8-8 on the surface. Also, Bueno has played more regular tour events. Pereira has played challenger and futures events as part of his last 10 matches. It’s a first-round main-draw match, but that doesn’t mean neither player is familiar with the playing surface and conditions. Pereira comes in without having played a match in Estoril, but Bueno just won two matches in the quallies earn this spot. He has familiarized himself with how the court plays. Obviously, the sportsbooks have Bueno as a hefty favorite.<\/p>\n

Best Bet to Make<\/b><\/p>\n

Welcome to our best bet section. You\u2019re going to get a collection of bets to consider, also a confidence level which should guide how much you should invest in this match.<\/span><\/p>\n

Parlay options: Bueno moneyline at 1.34 at @WilliamHill, Pereira plus 4.5 games at 1.81 at @unibet<\/span><\/p>\n

Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 4 – don’t bet more than half a unit on this match.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Bueno is clearly the better player and therefore likely to win, maybe even comfortably. Splitting the two parlay pieces (one on each side) and then arriving at a main best bet on Bueno makes plenty of logical sense. However, it’s a first-round match at this ATP Estoril event, so you can never fully know what to expect. Second, although you might feel confident in fading Pereira, it’s not as though Bueno is some sort of elite giant. He’s still a player ranked outside the top 150. That’s not the kind of player you want to trust with a really huge bet, so that’s why our confidence rating is not all that high.<\/p>\n

That being said, <\/span>betting on Bueno winning 2:0 is the best bet you can make. \u00a0 <\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Value bet\/ the best odds: Bueno winning 2:0 at 1.85 @1xbet<\/b><\/p>\n

Vilius Gaubas \u2013 Pablo Carreno-Busta: 7:00 EST<\/b><\/h4>\n

H2H: 0-1<\/b><\/p>\n

Vilius Gaubas has played a lot of clay tennis this year, but he hasn’t been particularly successful. He is 14-17 on the surface in 2026 as he arrives at the ATP Estoril tournament. He is familiar with clay tennis, but hasn’t been as consistent as he would like. It has been a different story for Pablo Carreno-Busta, the tour veteran who is 18-7 on clay this year and who made the Round of 16 at Roland-Garros a month and a half ago. Carreno-Busta has been around for a long time, and he is showing this year he can still compete at a high level. Both men are trying to boost their overall rankings on clay, a surface they know well, before the summer hardcourt season begins next week.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Best Bet to Make<\/b><\/p>\n

Parlay options: Carreno-Busta moneyline at 1.46 at @pinnacle, Gaubas +4.5 games at 1.47 @betsson<\/span><\/p>\n

Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 6 – You can bet three-fourths of a unit on this match.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pablo Carreno-Busta has had a much better 2026 season than Vilius Gaubas, very much including on clay. The gap between the two players’ performances and results is noticeable. It’s not tiny. Therefore, making a bet in favor of Carreno-Busta makes sense. Straight sets is a bread-and-butter kind of bet. We’re not assigning a maximum confidence rating, however, just because it’s a new tournament in which players, even veterans such as Carreno-Busta, might be unsettled or bothered to a small degree by the bounce of the ball or the speed of the court. Even seasoned pros might need to get used to the conditions at the ATP Estoril event in Portugal.<\/p>\n

That being said, <\/span>betting on Carreno-Busta winning 2:0 is the best bet you can make<\/b><\/p>\n

Value bet\/ the best odds: Carreno-Busta winning 2:0 @2.15 @10bet<\/b><\/p>\n

Jan Choinski \u2013 Jesper De Jong: 7:00 EST<\/b><\/h4>\n

H2H: 1-1<\/b><\/p>\n

These players have played a lot on clay and won a lot on clay in 2026. Choinski is 19-13, while De Jong is 20-12. They have both played 32 clay matches and have similar records. Choinski recently won a clay challenger event while De Jong played higher-level tournaments. That might give bettors reason to think the quality of each player’s clay win-loss record in 2026 is not exactly the same. That point aside, these players aren’t that far apart in the ATP world rankings. They are both in the 90s, with only eight ranking spots separating them. On paper, there isn’t a lot separating them, but De Jong is the sportsbooks’ favorite by a modest margin going into Tuesday’s match.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Best Bet to Make<\/b><\/p>\n

Parlay options: Choinski +1.5 sets at 1.43 @interwetten<\/span><\/p>\n

Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 4 – You should not bet more than half a unit on this match.<\/span><\/p>\n

Keep it simple here. Choinski beefed up his overall 2026 clay tennis record with a challenger tour win. That’s a minor-league result which offers no real indication he’s ready to beat De Jong, who hasn’t played as much tennis in recent weeks and should be fresher. De Jong moneyline combined with a Choinski set or game parlay makes sense, but because these players aren’t that far apart from each other, no one should be rushing to bet a large amount of money on this ATP Estoril match from any direction.<\/p>\n

That being said, <\/span>betting on De Jong moneyline is the best bet you can make.<\/b><\/p>\n

Value bet\/ the best odds: De Jong moneyline @1.79 @pinnacle<\/b><\/p>\n

Main Photo Credit: Markus Tobisch-Getty Images<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The ATP Estoril event is part of the very brief post-Wimbledon clay swing in Europe. The tournament used to be held in April, but it recently got moved into the post-Wimbledon slot as a summer clay showcase. There are plenty of Portuguese players in the field, trying to make a successful showing at their home-nation […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5903,"featured_media":47461,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[17400],"tags":[43958,2849,41825,18292,16099,91,43954,42020],"class_list":["post-108833","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-best-bets","tag-2026-atp-estoril","tag-atp-estoril","tag-gonzalo-bueno","tag-jan-choinski","tag-jesper-de-jong","tag-pablo-carreno-busta","tag-tiago-pereira","tag-vilius-gaubas"],"modified_by":"Matt Zemek","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108833","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5903"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=108833"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108833\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":108838,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108833\/revisions\/108838"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47461"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=108833"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=108833"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=108833"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}