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Jasmine Paolini in action ahead of the WTA Merida.
February 28, 2026 By  Tennis Predictions

WTA Merida Semifinal Predictions Including Jasmine Paolini vs Cristina Bucsa

It should be an entertaining day of tennis at the WTA Merida Open with two intriguing semifinals on the slate in  Mexico. As always, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for both semifinals, as well as the action at the WTA Austin Open. But who will secure their spot in Sunday’s final? 

WTA Merida Semifinal Predictions 

Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zhang

Head-to-head: Zhang 2-1 Frech 

Zhang Shuai started her week at the WTA Merida Open in the qualifying with a solid 6-3 6-4 win over Katarzyna Piter and has not looked back. The Chinese has looked very sharp all week, with the highlight so far her straight-sets win over second seed Emma Navarro in the second round – a victory that will surely have given her real confidence heading into the weekend. As will the fact that she has beaten Magdalena Frech in two of their three previous meetings, including their most recent. 

But Frech should not be underestimated. The Pole has beaten two seeds – Jessica Bouzas Maneiro and Marie Bouzkova – en route to the last four and has generally been playing better tennis than the veteran Zhang, which is reflected by her higher ranking. But when the 37-year-old Zhang is at her best – as she has been so far this week – she is a very difficult opponent to face. Expect her court-craft and guile to see her past Frech and into the final in Merida. 

Prediction: Zhang in 2 

Jasmine Paolini vs Cristina Bucsa 

Head-to-head: Paolini 2-1 Bucsa 

Jasmine Paolini made a late decision to enter the WTA Merida Open, but so far it looks like it was the right choice for the Italian. She could use some momentum heading into the Sunshine Double and has set about building some in Merida with wins over Patricia Hon (for the loss of only two games) and Katie Boulter. She did lose the first set to Boulter to love which will be a slight cause for  concern, but  the more important point is that Paolini rallied to win in three. 

Cristina Bucsa, who is also still in contention in the doubles draw this week, has won all three matches she has played in the singles draw in straight sets and has clearly enjoyed the conditions in Merida. That said, the Spaniard has not yet come up against an opponent with Paolini’s quality. She has beaten the Italian before, but Paolini has the edge in their head-to-head and it wouldn’t be a great surprise if she extended that advantage here – provided she can avoid any major lulls in concentration. 

Prediction: Paolini in 3 

 Main photo credit: Cara Owsley/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

About Jim Smith

Jim is a sports fan and writer, who graduated from the University of Warwick with a Masters in Global and Comparative History in September, 2019. Site manager at Last Word on Cricket and deputy site manager at Last Word on Tennis, Jim is never happier than when at his laptop, watching and writing on sports.