Elena Rybakina claimed her first WTA title of the 2024 season in Brisbane, defeating Aryna Sabalenka 6-0 6-3 on Sunday. In a rematch of the 2023 Australian Open final, Rybakina won the match in just 72 minutes, winning her sixth career title in the process. Neither player had dropped a set in Brisbane going into the final, indicating that this match would be neck and neck.
But it didn’t turn out that way with with Rybakina taking advantage of 71 percent of break-point opportunities to control the match and firing seven aces to Sabalenka’s three as she stormed to victory for the loss of only three games.
Rybakina, who will rise to #3 in the rankings on Monday, whilst for Sabalenka, the result ended a 15-match win streak in Australia, a run that included a title in Adelaide and a maiden Grand Slam in Melbourne last season. Ulitmately, unforced errors cost Sabalenka in the match, as she hit 20 errors compared to just eight from Rybakina.
“I don’t know where to start,” Sabalenka said post-match, laughing. “Thank you for those three games at least. We made it look like a fight.”
Rybakina – Australian Open Favourite?
Rybakina’s victory will garner attention throughout the WTA tour, as the Australian Open begins in just a week. Although still the third favourite to win the Australian Open according to the bookmakers, her win over Sabalenka may soon make her the favourite for the title in Melbourne. She plays some of her best tennis on fast hard courts and has the experience of playing the Australian Open final last year.
During last year’s Australian Open, Rybakina was seeded just 22nd, though that was slightly artificial given she had won the title at Wimbledon six months earlier but received no ranking points for her efforts after the WTA and ATP stripped the Championships of ranking points in response to a ban on Russian and Belarusian players.
As a result of her relatively lowly seeding, she had to take on world #1 Iga Swiatek in the fourth round. In a blockbuster matchup that felt more like a final, Rybakina stunned the Pole 6-4 6-4. Rybakina would continue to have Swiatek’s number in 2023. The Pole could not claim a victory over Rybakina throughout the entire season, with Rybakina also winning in Indian Wells and Rome.
That suggests that Rybakina could very well claim another victory over Swiatek at the Australian Open if the two meet at Melbourne Park in a fortnight’s time. They could meet in the semifinals or final, depending on the draw.
Meanwhile, Rybakina’s Brisbane victory over Sabalenka may mean the Kazakh may have the edge should they meet again. The Belarusian will also be facing the pressure of trying to defend her Australian Open crown.
It is rather rare on the WTA tour that a player defends their maiden Grand Slam title. In fact, only one player on the WTA tour has defended a Grand Slam title in the last 28 Grand Slam tournaments with Swiatek the lone player to do so, winning last year’s French Open.
Rybakina’s final major threat is the formidable 19-year-old Coco Gauff. While Gauff played great tennis to win her seventh WTA title in Auckland, she’ll also face adversity going into her first Grand Slam since her 2023 US Open triumph. However, Rybakina is yet to win against Gauff, with their last meeting coming at the 2022 Canadian Open. Gauff won that match 6-4 6-7 (8) 7-6 (3).
As of Sunday, Rybakina is still scheduled to play another tune-up event in Adelaide. Another WTA 500 title in Adelaide could boost her title chances even more at the Australian Open.
Main photo credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
