Andrey Rublev has spent most of the last four years inside the Top 10 as one of the elite players on the ATP Tour. However, despite his immense talent, he has never made it past the quarterfinals at any of the four Majors. He took a significant step forward in 2023 by winning his first Masters 1000 title in Monte Carlo. Winning a Masters 1000 against the top players in the game shows that he has the game to compete for a Major title. With no Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros and a newfound confidence, this is a real chance for Rublev to compete for the French Open title.
Can Andrey Rublev win the French Open?
Current Form
Rublev started strong on the clay with his title in Monte Carlo. He faced a tough draw, including Karen Khachanov and Jan-Lennard Struff, both of whom he dispatched in straight sets. He then faced Taylor Fritz in the semifinals, who he came back and pulled away from after dropping the first set. Playing his third Masters 1000 final and second in Monte Carlo, he pulled out a gritty victory over Holger Rune. Rublev, who can get frustrated on the court, kept his focus after losing the first set then falling 1-4 30-40 down in the deciding set. He fought through a physical match to take the title on the clay.
Rublev continued playing well with a final in his next event at the Serbian Open before struggling at the next two Masters events. He fell to Khachanov in the Round of 16 in Madrid and lost again in the Round of 16 in Rome. He did score a strong straight sets win over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in Rome that should help his confidence going forward. While the last few events have been disappointing, Rublev showed he can hold his nerves in a big final and can beat the best players in the world.
Draw Analysis
One challenge for Rublev will be his place in the more difficult top half of the tournament’s draw. His likely road to the title will include matches against Karen Khachanov, Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, and in the final likely Daniil Medvedev or Holger Rune. This will certainly present its challenges but Rublev does have a shot. Khachanov in the fourth round will be difficult since he beat Rublev on clay this year. However, Rublev also beat his countryman in Monte Carlo so he will have confidence he can do it again.
Djokovic will naturally present a massive challenge as the only player in the field with multiple French Open titles. Though Djokovic is always a danger at a Major, he has not been in top form and has dealt with an elbow injury, giving Rublev an excellent opportunity to pull off an upset as he did against him in Belgrade last year.
Alcaraz in the semifinal is by far the biggest roadblock for Rublev. Rublev did beat Alcaraz in an exhibition in Abu Dhabi last year in their only meeting, though it was on hard court and Alcaraz has improved drastically since then. Alcaraz looked nearly unbeatable through 2023 but had a disappointing loss in Rome that could affect him coming into Roland Garros. Rublev will certainly hope that Alcaraz is upset before the semifinal, but his loss in Rome gives Rublev and others a glimmer of hope that they otherwise would not have had. The final actually lines up better for Rublev if he can get there. He knows that he can beat Rune if the Dane makes it, and Rublev is stronger physically in a best of five match. Medvedev has a strong record against Rublev, but they have yet to play on clay, which gives Rublev an advantage.
Can he win?
Even with his abilities and confidence, it is pretty unlikely Rublev will win the French Open. The tournament seems like Alcaraz’s to lose, and any player he plays, including Rublev, will be a significant underdog. He has the ability to beat every other player in his draw but with the difficult draw he has winning those last four matches in a row will be a big hurdle. It is certainly not impossible and there is a sure path to the title for Andrey Rublev, and this seems like it may be his best chance so far for a Grand Slam title. He will have a big mountain to climb so while it is possible, it is hard to expect him winning this year’s French Open.
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
