The semifinal for the top half of the WTA draw in Miami is set. Elena Rybakina may be hot off her title in Indian Wells but she’ll face her sternest test at the Miami Open in Jessica Pegula. The American has beaten the reigning Wimbledon champion in both of their previous meetings and will be keen to make it three times on the bounce. As always at LWOT, we’ve tried to predict the outcome of this enticing match-up.
WTA Miami Semifinal Prediction
Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula
Head-to-head: Pegula 2-0 Rybakina
Jessica Pegula consistently gets to the latter stages of tournaments. She’s reached the quarterfinals or better in 10 of her last 11 events, delivering flat steady balls with impeccable timing over and over again. You can rely on her to bring a sturdy base level to every match she plays. Her problem lies in pushing herself beyond that base level. Pegula has lost 14 of her last 17 matches against Top 5 opponents and, though Elena Rybakina isn’t technically in that ranking bracket, it’s safe to say her level and her absent Wimbledon points make her worthy of that status.
How did Pegula step up in her last meeting with Rybakina? In high altitude, Guadalajara rewards variety, a huge serve, ability to absorb pace and steadiness. Though Rybakina kept herself alive with her serve, Pegula outplayed Rybakina in the other three departments, saving match points to collapse over the finish line and go on to win the title.
Unfortunately for the World #3, the conditions in Miami are more likely than Guadalajara to reward early strike tennis. This time round, Rybakina trumps Pegula in the shots that matter most–her serve is more likely to win her free points than the American’s and her returning has been stellar since the beginning on 2023. There’s just too much going right for Rybakina whilst Pegula’s history against the best in the world suggests there’s a peak she’s unlikely to reach.
Prediction: Rybakina in 2.
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
