The first Masters 1000 event of the season is in full swing as the world’s best have descended upon Indian Wells, California, looking to hoist one of the most prestigious trophies in the sport. Day 5 of the BNP Paribas Open features some intriguing Third Round matchups, including No. 3 seed Casper Ruud taking on 2022 Wimbledon quarterfinalist Cristian Garin. We at LWOT have the preview and prediction for that match and all other happenings around the grounds of Indian Wells. But who will advance?
ATP Indian Wells Day 5 Predictions
Andrey Rublev vs Ugo Humbert
Head-to-Head: Rublev 2-1 Humbert
Andrey Rublev has had an up-and-down start to the 2023 season but seemed to turn a corner when he reached the Dubai final two weeks ago. The 25-year-old made the semis in Indian Wells last year and favors the conditions of the desert. He gets a tricky Third Round matchup against Frenchman Ugo Humbert. Humbert dispatched Denis Shapovalov 7-5 6-4 in Round Two and has won six of his last seven matches. The 24-year-old Frenchman has a tricky style of play that could give Rublev trouble. I expect Humbert to hang around in this match, but the No. 6 seed should raise his level when it matters most.
Prediction: Rublev in 2
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Emil Ruusuvuori vs Alexander Zverev
Head-to-Head: Ruusuvuori 1-0 Zverev
Alexander Zverev continues to work back from the ankle injury he suffered at Roland Garros in 2022. Two weeks ago in Dubai, the 25-year-old reached his first semifinal since the injury. He looks to continue his progression against 23-year-old Emil Ruusuvuori. The Fin took down Roberto Bautista Agut in Round Two and has a game tailored for the desert courts. He will look to draw out each point, keeping the German on the court for as long as possible. Ruusuvuori should find success in the longer rallies, but Zverev’s first-strike tennis over the last two events is getting close to his pre-injury form. I’ll take the German in two tight sets.
Prediction: Zverev in 2
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Frances Tiafoe vs Jason Kubler
Head-to-Head: Tiafoe 1-0 Kubler
Frances Tiafoe and Jason Kubler battled at the 2022 US Open, with the American besting the Aussie 7-6 7-5 7-6. I expect another close match between two players who achieved career-high rankings last month. Kubler has picked up wins over Lorenzo Sonego and Grigor Dimitrov this week and is playing with more confidence than ever. He and Tiafoe will trade powerful forehands all match long, but who will break first? I give a slight advantage to the American. Tiafoe is more consistent from the baseline and will have the home crowd to lean on when things get tough.
Prediction: Tiafoe in 3
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Cristian Garin vs Casper Ruud
Head-to-Head: Garin 2-1 Ruud
No. 3 seed Casper Ruud is looking to right his early season struggles in Indian Wells. He is just 4-4 this season and has not beaten a player ranked inside the top 35. Ruud gets a tough Third Round match against 2022 Wimbledon quarterfinalist Cristian Garin. The 26-year-old Chilean worked his way through qualifying and is coming off a dominant 6-4 6-0 win over Yoshihito Nishioka. The desert conditions play into Garin’s game. He will be able to dig balls all match long against Ruud. I expect Garin to push Ruud to a third set, but trust the No. 3 seed to raise his level when it matters most.
Prediction: Ruud in 3
Main Photo Credit: Jay Calderon/The Desert Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK
