The field at the Next Gen ATP Finals is set. With Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner and Holger Rune elsewhere, the field is led by Lorenzo Musetti. Despite the relatively high-average ranking of the players (the highest ever for an edition of the Next Gen ATP Finals), with Musetti and two other Italians in the mix, the crowd will be guaranteed to bring the energy for every match. There’s a lot to look forward to and, as always, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match on day one.
Next Gen ATP Finals Day 1 Predictions
Jiri Lehecka vs Francesco Passaro
Head-to-head: first meeting
Francesco Passaro has had some great results this year winning a Challenger and making three other finals (two were lost to Musetti and Rune). But the Italian has had little experience indoors though or even on hard-courts for that matter so he remains a bit of an unknown quantity.
Jiri Lehecka has made impressive strides on hard court over the course of his short career, wins against Denis Shapovalov, Grigor Dimitrov, Botic van de Zandschulp and Musetti amongst those on resume. Still, it feels as though this could be very even. Passaro has shown quality against great opponents, his opportunities have just been few and far between, plus Lehecka has not been at his best recently. Lehecka might once again be just a little too erratic in the pressure moments.
Prediction: Passaro in 3
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Brandon Nakashima vs Matteo Arnaldi
Head-to-head: first meeting
Where Lehecka’s recent form could be considered indifferent, Brandon Nakashima is in the best shape of his life. His game is looking more polished than ever, tons and tons of work on every facet of his tennis finally paying off. His game feels worthy of the top-50, requiring something special from his opponents to defeat him. Just take a look at his last three losses – Evans in three sets, Wawrinka in three sets and Auger-Aliassime (who was on a remarkable streak indoors) in two.
It’s also worth nothing that these losses followed his first ATP title in San Diego. Nakashima will give Matteo Arnaldi very few cheap points. Arnaldi has shown quality this year too but the gap between Nakashima’s love for hard-courts and Arnaldi’s preference for clay will be rather bigger than in the match between Lehecka and Passaro.
Prediction: Nakashima in 2
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Jack Draper vs Dominic Stricker
Head-to-head: first meeting
Dominic Stricker isn’t quite a household name yet but make no mistake, he will be soon. His huge game is made for indoor hard courts and he showed how dangerous he can be with his straight-set wins over Maxime Cressy and van de Zandschulp over the last couple of weeks. Still, if you’ve been sleeping on Jack Draper, it’s time to wake up. Draper’s lefty game is fairly similar to Stricker’s with just a little more pop in all departments. Whilst Stricker certainly suits indoor hard-courts, Draper was almost born to play on them. Don’t underrate Stricker but two tight sets should fall the way of the Briton.
Prediction: Draper in 2
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Lorenzo Musetti vs Tseng Chun-hsin
Head-to-head: first meeting
Tseng Chun-hsin has quality in his game for sure, however it feels as though there’s a lot of untapped potential there. He can still be overpowered by quality ATP-level opponents as he continues to search for his first top-50 win (see convincing losses to Nick Kyrgios, Cameron Norrie and even Oscar Otte this year). His game still comes across a little underdeveloped, with work to do on the serve and aggressive opportunities sometimes missed in lieu of consistency.
A year ago, this is the sort of match-up that could have driven Lorenzo Musetti crazy as Tseng’s speed around the court may have overheated the Italian’s groundstrokes. Nowadays though, the improvements to Musetti’s game should leave him excited. His forehand is suited to faster courts now and his one-handed backhand can produce moments of magic, even if it is still a work in progress. With Musetti sure to be backed to the hilt by the crowd too, the Taiwanese will struggle to find somewhere to hide.
Prediction: Musetti in 2
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