ATP Murray River Open Final Prediction: Dan Evans vs Felix Auger-Aliassime

ATP Murray River Open Final Prediction

Dan Evans vs Felix Auger-Aliassime

Head-to-head: first meeting

Evans has played excellent tennis this week. He hasn’t dropped a set in any of the four matches he’s played this tournament. In the semifinals against Jeremy Chardy, Evans had no issues in a 6-2 6-2 win. Evans won 100% of his first serve points and didn’t face a break point all match. On return, he tore apart the Chardy second serve. The Frenchman won only 33% of his second serve points.

Auger-Aliassime is getting better-and-better as the week has gone on. Auger-Aliassime destroyed Corentin Moutet 6-1 6-2 to reach the final against Evans. Auger-Aliassime’s first serve was firing, as he hit eight aces and won 93% of his first serve points.

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These two have never played before. Both enjoy playing on hard courts and there’s no surface advantage here. Evans has lost the only two ATP Tour finals he’s played, while Auger-Aliassime’s lost all six ATP Tour finals he’s played in. But there is potentially a big difference in the mental toll of only losing a couple tour-level finals versus is losing six. If the match is tight, Evans should have the mental edge.

Game-wise, this will be a contrast in styles. Auger-Aliassime likes to play very aggressive tennis. After his big serve, he wants to get on top of the points and finish them early on. Evans, on the other hand, is very adept at playing longer rallies and utilizing the variety he has in his toolbox. Whether that be his touch volleys, nasty backhand slice, or angles, Evans loves his cat-and-mouse points.

This style will work well to frustrate Auger-Aliassime. The fact that Evans served so well against Chardy is just a bonus for his game, not something he really relies on to win. Auger-Aliassime struggles when the ball is out of his strike zone and that will really hurt him here.