After a week of amazing tennis from the top women’s players in the world, we have finally made it to the knockout stage of the WTA Finals. Unlike the Round Robin Group Stage, a single loss will now send you home with no chance of redemption. These final 2 elimination rounds will determine who gets to hold the trophy. Will Elina Svitolina join a legendary group of back-to-back winners or will a 1st-time champion emerge from the Group of 4?
WTA Finals Semifinal Predictions
Ashleigh Barty vs Karolina Pliskova
Head-to-Head: Ashleigh Barty 3, Karolina Pliskova 2
Ashleigh Barty looks to cap her Year-End #1 crown with her first title at the WTA Finals. Barty began her Shenzhen run with a meeting with 7th-seed Belinda Bencic. She dropped the first set to Bencic 7-5, but rallied to cruise in the 2nd and 3rd sets 6-1 and 6-2 respectively. After Naomi Osaka dropped out, Barty faced alternate Kiki Bertens. Barty was unable to avoid the upset as Bertens won 3-6, 6-3, 6-4. It was one of Ashleigh Barty’s worst serving performances of the year. She was only able to get 46.8% of her first serves in play. Even when she did get her first serve in, she struggled to win points. Barty won just 56.8% of her first serve points and aced Bertens on just 4.3% of her service points. All of these marks are well short of Barty’s usual 2019 service statistics. The World #1 bounced back with her strongest performance of the tournament in a win over Petra Kvitova. Barty beat #6 Petra Kvitova 6-4, 6-2 in routine fashion. Her first serve returned to normal as she won 79.5% of her 1st serve points and got 62.0% of her first serves in.
Karolina Pliskova is in the midst of a great career. She’s been to a Grand Slam final, gotten to #1 in the world, and won multiple Fed Cups with the Czech Republic National team. However, Pliskova has never been to the championship match of the WTA Finals. She hopes to change that tomorrow with a win over Ashleigh Barty. Her 2019 WTA Finals campaign opened with a tough loss to Elina Svitolina. Pliskova and Svitolina battled in the first set with Svitolina coming out on top 7-6 by way of a 14-12 tiebreak. Svitolina then beat Pliskova 6-4 in the 2nd set. Pliskova’s 2nd match was a quick one vs. Bianca Andreescu. Pliskova won the first set 6-3 before Andreescu retired from the match due to injury. Karolina Pliskova and Simona Halep then faced off to determine who would finish 2nd in the Purple Group and advance to the semis. Pliskova came out on fire, bageling Simona Halep with a 6-0 first set thrashing. Simona then won 8 of the next 10 games, winning the 2nd set 6-2 and going up 2-0 in the 2nd. Karolina pulled it together winning the next 4 games and taking control of the match. Karolina Pliskova won 6-0, 2-6, 6-4 to clinch her spot into the knockout round.
I’m going to take Ashleigh Barty in this semifinal. She has earned the #1 ranking in the world by developing her game into one of the world’s most diverse. Barty is comfortable playing any style and she has great shot variety. Among top 50 players, Barty is 2nd in % of service points won (63.6%). She’s also 5th in % of 1st serve return points won, winning 39.4% of her opponent’s 1st serve points. As long as she’s not having the type of service performance that she did against Kiki Bertens, Barty should win this match. Karolina Pliskova’s huge serve will give Barty trouble, because it gives everybody a tough time. Pliskova is 2nd among top 50 players in ace percentage (10.1%) and 3rd in % of 1st serve points won (72.7%). She leads the tour in aces, as she usually does. However, Ashleigh Barty is the more complete player and I expect her all-court game to end Pliskova’s title hopes.
Prediction: Ashleigh Barty wins in 3.
Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic
Head-To-Head: Bencic 2, Svitolina 1
Elina Svitolina would enter rare air if she’s able to win this WTA Finals. She would join legends Evert, Navratilova, Graf, Seles, Clijsters, Henin, and S. Williams as the only players to win back-to-back WTA Finals. Last year, she won the title by beating Sloane Stephens in the final 3-6, 6-2, 6-2. She also beat Petra Kvitova, Karolina Pliskova, Caroline Wozniacki, and Kiki Bertens on the way. This year, she hasn’t dropped a set going 3-0 in the round robin stage. The Purple Group winner beat Karolina Pliskova 7-6 (12), 6-4 and Simona Halep 7-5, 6-3. In total, she has won her last 8 WTA Finals matches. To win her 8th, she needed to fend off a challenge from feisty alternate Sofia Kenin. Kenin went a break up in both the 1st and 2nd sets. In the 1st, Kenin was up 5-3 before Svitolina won 4 straight games to win the set 7-5. In the 2nd, Svitolina was down 5-4 until she broke Kenin and played her way into a tiebreak. Kenin saved 4 match points before Svitolina eventually won the tie break 12-10.
Belinda Bencic secured her spot into the WTA Finals semis by finishing 2nd place in the Red Group. Bencic entered the tournament in solid form, having just won Moscow a couple of weeks ago. She beat Polona Hercog, Kirsten Flipkens, Kristina Mladenovic, and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova en route to the Moscow title. Her momentum carried into the WTA Finals, taking the first set off of the #1 player in the world, Ashleigh Barty, before running out of gas in sets 2 and 3. In her 2nd match, she was able to beat Petra Kvitova despite getting outplayed for large portions of the match. Her dominance ratio was only 0.93 and she only won 48.7% of the total points played. However, she won 6-3, 1-6, 6-4 by taking 70.0% of Kvitova’s 2nd serve points. Bencic’s final match of the Round Robin stage was a short one. With Belinda Bencic up 7-5 1-0, Kiki Bertens was forced to retire. Kiki went up a break early, but Bencic was able to turn the tide late in the 1st set.
This is going to be a fun match with 2 evenly-matched competitors. I lean Svitolina here because of how well she’s playing. I’ve been especially impressed with the way Svitolina has been returning. Elina won 67.6% of Pliskova’s 2nd serve points in her WTA Finals opener. She won 42.4% of Halep’s 1st serve points in her 2nd WTA Finals match. I’ve also been surprised by the mental toughness she has shown so far. She has been able to dig deep in these matches, winning the 1st set tiebreak over Pliskova 14-12 and the 2nd set tiebreak with Kenin 12-10. Bencic is a formidable foe, but her form has not been as strong. She got 1 victory by retirement and another by beating a Petra Kvitova who was off her game. I think Bencic’s run ends tomorrow.
Prediction: Elina Svitolina wins in 3.
