The 2017 US Open moves on to day 6, as the round of 16 will be finalized on the women’s side of the draw. Our panel of Steen Kirby, Yesh Ginsburg, and Finn Ransom offer up their previews and predictions for the big matches of the day.
Madison Keys vs. Elena Vesnina
Steen: Vesnina has found form but Keys is in great form since earlier in the Summer and has a 2-0 h2h, look for the American to continue on without dropping a set. Keys in 2
Yesh: This should be one of the better matches of the day. It’s tough to pick a winner, as both are in solid form and there is not much to separate the two. I’ll go with the American in front of a home crowd. Keys in 3
Finn: Her wrist trouble apparently behind her following surgery in June, Keys has put in some imperious performances lately. Confidence is high after triumphing over an elite field in Stanford; whereas in the past anything short of her best tennis has rocked her, she has downed two tricky opponents in straight sets in Elise Mertens and Tatjana Maria when far from firing on all cylinders. Whilst Vesnina showed her hard court pedigree with victory at the Indian Wells Masters in March, it feels like her year has been a downward spiral since that apotheosis. From the back, she simply does not have the weapons to hit through such a powerful, fearless baseliner as Keys. The 15th seed’s heavy kick serve makes for a formidable prospect on the US Open’s high-bouncing DecoTurf surface, and will enable Keys to dictate baseline exchanges from the off. A straight-sets victory for the 22-year-old – but make no mistake, she will have to raise her level from her previous two matches. 80 unforced errors across just four sets is cause for concern. Keys in 2
Elana Svitolina vs. Shelby Rogers
Steen: A nice run for Rogers but Svitolina leads the h2h and is simply better at this point in their careers. I don’t see an upset in the cards. Svitolina in 2
Yesh: Shelby Rogers has made an impressive run so far, and Svitolina looks a bit vulnerable. I don’t think the American has another upset in her right now, though. Svitolina in 2
Finn: Having just competed in the longest women’s match in US Open history (a staggering 3 hour 36 minute win over Daria Gavrilova), I struggle to see Rogers battling through this one. Her fitness has always been a weakness, and while Svitolina doesn’t have the mobility of Kerber or Halep, she has the counterpunching firepower to repel Rogers’ big serve and groundstrokes. The Ukrainian’s first serve percentage – 53 across her two matches – must improve though, otherwise Rogers could have some joy pushing up the court on those kick serves. Expect a closely-fought first set before the 4th seed pulls away. Svitolina is still in contention for the #1 spot; she will be up for the battle.
Svitolina in 2
Agnieszka Radwanska vs. Coco Vandeweghe
Steen: Radwanska dominates the h2h and American fans will probably leave this match less than happy. Radwanska in 2
Yesh: Vandeweghe is in great form and Radwanska has struggled all year. The Pole is so talented, though. She has to turn it around eventually. I don’t know if this match is the time, though. Vandeweghe in 3
Finn: Radwanska leads 5-1 in the head to head, and recently delivered a crushing 6-3 6-2 defeat to Vandeweghe in Toronto. Although the Pole is not the force she once was, she is still a supremely awkward opponent, and deprives ball-strikers like Vandeweghe the fast, waist-high shots they thrive on. Still, there is the small matter of the raucous New York crowd and while Vandeweghe has historically lacked the guile to put away Radwanska, her net play has significantly improved over the past few months under Pat Cash. That could be crucial in changing the landscape of this rivalry. Radwanska will edge it, but I don’t say that with much confidence. Radwanska in 3
Karolina Pliskova vs. Shuai Zhang
Steen: 4-0 h2h in favor of Pliskova, Zhang is playing well but Pliskova has her eye on world #1. Pliskova in 2
Yesh: Pliskova played her worst set of the tournament against Nicole Gibbs, which makes this match suddenly interesting. I can’t see her playing that poorly again, though. Pliskova in 2
Finn: Pliskova looked far from her best against Gibbs. But then this is perhaps one of the best third round matches she could have hoped for. The Czech has a 100% win record against Zhang, a psychological boost that will surely calm any nerves. The diminutive Chinese player is solid, but does not have the weapons to expose Pliskova’s invariably poor movement. In contrast, the world #1 has that imperious first delivery to earn her some cheap points. Another streaky performance, but expect no upset here. Pliskova in 3
Kaia Kanepi vs. Naomi Osaka
Steen: Kanepi is on an improbably 10 match win streak but Osaka has won six of her last seven and is a big talent. Osaka should slip past the veteran. Osaka in 3
Yesh: This is finally Osaka’s big breakthrough tournament. She’s not going to lose here against Kanepi. Osaka in 2
Finn: Osaka has looked immensely impressive – not just in sweeping past defending champion Angelique Kerber, but in having the mental fortitude to back such a remarkable performance up. While Kanepi is a canny operator, possessing far more experience than her 19-year-old opponent (it will be her 82nd Grand Slam match, and just Osaka’s 18th), it is a pretty good match-up for the Japanese player. Kanepi hits the ball extremely flat, suited to Osaka’s similarly hard strokes and short backswing, and will not bring anything unorthodox that will upset the youngster’s rhythm. Osaka’s main weakness is the lack of angle to her shots, but then Kanepi also tends to hit very centrally. The Estonian only returned from a long injury break in June, and this one might just be a step too far. Another challenge for Osaka, but that Ostapenko-like precocious fight will bring her through. Osaka in 3
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