{"id":661,"date":"2016-09-16T02:22:14","date_gmt":"2016-09-16T06:22:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsoccer.com\/?p=661"},"modified":"2016-09-16T02:22:55","modified_gmt":"2016-09-16T06:22:55","slug":"nycfc-and-the-playoffs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/soccer\/2016\/09\/16\/nycfc-and-the-playoffs\/","title":{"rendered":"Five Leaves Left: NYCFC and the Playoffs"},"content":{"rendered":"

Including Saturday\u2019s match against FC Dallas<\/strong>, New York City Football Club<\/strong> have five opportunities to solidify their position in the playoffs. So I did little \u201cback of the envelope\u201d calculating, looking at who NYCFC were playing and who everyone else in the conference were playing, in order to get a little clarity about NYCFC and the playoffs \u2013 if for no other reason than to make me slightly less nervous about the ramifications of Saturday\u2019s match.<\/p>\n

Now I realize that my prognostication skills are barely the equivalent of, say, a coke-addled bonobo, but is accuracy really all that important? We\u2019re all just looking into a crystal ball and guessing, right? Except, of course, some of us are looking with their eyes open and using logic and reason, while I\u2019m just using, um, well a laptop and a bottle of whiskey. But hey, you dance with the girl that brung ya, right?<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s start with the current standings <\/strong><\/h3>\n

As of this writing, September 14th<\/sup>, the Eastern Conference looks like this:<\/p>\n

Toronto FC<\/strong> \u2013 46 points<\/p>\n

New York Red Bulls<\/strong> \u2013 44 points<\/p>\n

New York City FC<\/strong> \u2013 44 points<\/p>\n

Philadelphia Union<\/strong> \u2013 41 points<\/p>\n

Impact de Montreal<\/strong> \u2013 38 points<\/p>\n

Orlando City SC<\/strong> \u2013 34 points<\/p>\n

New England Revolution<\/strong> \u2013 33 points<\/p>\n

D.C. United<\/strong> \u2013 33 points<\/p>\n

Chicago Fire<\/strong> \u2013 26 points<\/p>\n

Columbus Crew<\/strong> \u2013 26 points<\/p>\n

And also as of today, here\u2019s how many fixtures everyone has left:<\/p>\n

Toronto FC \u2013 6<\/p>\n

New York Red Bulls \u2013 5<\/p>\n

New York City FC \u2013 5<\/p>\n

Philadelphia Union \u2013 5<\/p>\n

Impact de Montreal \u2013 6<\/p>\n

Orlando City SC \u2013 6<\/p>\n

New England Revolution \u2013 5<\/p>\n

D.C. United \u2013 6<\/p>\n

Chicago Fire \u2013 7<\/p>\n

Columbus Crew \u2013 7<\/p>\n

(what is it with Chicago and Columbus? Did they have a sick kid or vacation plans they just couldn\u2019t get out of or something? Five gameweeks left and they\u2019ve got seven matches to play? Who does that?)<\/p>\n

Now, I won\u2019t bore you with the details of my specific predictions about the matches (contact me<\/a> if you\u2019re really curious), but here\u2019s what I think the teams will add to their current totals when all is said and done:<\/p>\n

Toronto FC \u2013 12 points<\/p>\n

New York Red Bulls \u2013 11 points<\/p>\n

New York City FC \u2013 8 points<\/p>\n

Philadelphia Union \u2013 5 points<\/p>\n

Impact de Montreal \u2013 10 points<\/p>\n

Orlando City SC \u2013 6 points<\/p>\n

Okay, now let\u2019s stop right there and review. You may think I\u2019m being a little tough on Philadelphia, but consider this: they have to fly to Portland this week, and then play Toronto away and have two matches against the Red Bulls. Look the word \u201cbrutal\u201d up in the dictionary and you see a picture of Philly\u2019s remaining schedule.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s why I see Montreal, who play the Revolution twice and host the San Jose Earthquakes<\/strong>, leapfrogging<\/em> Philadelphia by season\u2019s end, making the top six look something like this.<\/p>\n

Toronto FC \u2013 58<\/p>\n

New York Red Bulls \u2013 55 points<\/p>\n

New York City FC \u2013 52 points<\/p>\n

Impact de Montreal \u2013 48 points<\/p>\n

Philadelphia Union \u2013 46 points<\/p>\n

Orlando City SC \u2013 40 points<\/p>\n

But wait, there\u2019s more \u2013 <\/u><\/h3>\n

Now let\u2019s return to the bottom four teams, three of whom have at least one game in hand on the rest of the conference. I\u2019m thinking they\u2019ll pull the following points out of their remaining fixtures:<\/p>\n

New England Revolution \u2013 6 points<\/p>\n

D.C. United \u2013 11 points<\/p>\n

Chicago Fire \u2013 5 points<\/p>\n

Columbus Crew \u2013 1 point<\/p>\n

Now I know what you\u2019re thinking – what do any of these gutter dwellers have to do with NYCFC and the playoffs? But bear with me. You no doubt noticed I\u2019m giving 11 points to D.C. United. But look at their schedule! They play Orlando twice, and Columbus and Chicago once each. And they host NYCFC at RFK in October, and we all know how that worked out last season. Eleven points out of six matches when two of them are against two of the worst teams in the league is not unreasonable. Especially for a team that has loaded up with attackers this season like D.C. United has.<\/p>\n

Which means that at season\u2019s end, the whole Eastern Conference table could look like this:<\/p>\n

Toronto FC \u2013 58<\/p>\n

New York Red Bulls \u2013 55 points<\/p>\n

New York City FC \u2013 52 points<\/p>\n

Impact de Montreal \u2013 48 points<\/p>\n

Philadelphia Union \u2013 46 points<\/p>\n

D.C. United \u2013 44 points<\/p>\n

Orlando City SC \u2013 40 points<\/p>\n

New England Revolution \u2013 39 points<\/p>\n

Chicago Fire \u2013 31 points<\/p>\n

Columbus Crew \u2013 27 points<\/p>\n

That\u2019s right, D.C. United jump over <\/em>Orlando into the final spot. Oh, and who do D.C. United play in the last match of the season? Orlando. In <\/em>Orlando. Which means that match could actually be a sort of play-in for the final playoff spot.<\/p>\n

All of which means<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Now, if I\u2019m right, which sure, I\u2019m probably not, but if I am<\/em>, then that means NYCFC would host DC United for a rematch of that thrilling extra-time goal-a-palooza everybody enjoyed a few weeks ago. And if NYCFC win that, which of course, we all hope they will?<\/p>\n

They\u2019d get to face the Red Bulls in the second round.<\/p>\n

Oh and speaking of them\u2026 <\/u><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Even as I am typing these words, the Red Bulls are playing in the CONCACAF Champions League<\/strong>. Right now they\u2019re hosting the Salvadoran side Alianza F.C. <\/strong>but more importantly for NYCFC and the playoffs, they still have to play against the Guatemalan side Antigua G.F.C<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

So between their home matches against Montreal and Philadelphia, – that is, in the middle <\/em>of playing the number one, number four and number five team in their conference – they have to make a four thousand mile round trip flight.<\/p>\n

How that will impact the Red Bulls, let alone NYCFC and the playoffs, is anybody\u2019s guess. Maybe they\u2019ll be worn out and lose to Philadelphia at home instead of beating them. Maybe they\u2019ll take their eye off the Montreal match and drop points there too. That six point swing would give NYCFC a bye in the first round. And could send the Red Bulls to Montreal for a play-in match.<\/p>\n

Or maybe it\u2019ll have absolutely no effect whatsoever.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s the downside of a race this tight. Every point could be the difference between a bye and hosting a play-in match. Between hosting and going on the road. Between going on the road and sitting on your couch.<\/p>\n

But the upside is that NYCFC controls their future. And you don\u2019t need to read the tea leaves to see that.<\/p>\n

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Embed from Getty Images<\/a><\/div>\n