Bonus point/Score calculations might see France win Six Nations

Bonus point/Score calculations might see France win Six Nations

There is still much to wait for in this notable 2021 Guinness championship, with one vital result left where either France win Six Nations glory via a bonus-point win and their table score calculations total…..or they come agonizingly close.

One more twist to an already dramatic ride for both fan and player.

From the hollow sense of empty stadiums which have still played witness to many entertaining and dramatic rugby union games, the balanced nature of this year’s competition now sees two teams hoping that finally, maybe one will have done enough to be crowned Champions.

The last match has had to be rescheduled too, due to the horrid nature of this pandemic interrupting the natural course of the tournament. France was infected by the Covid virus, meaning Scotland could not travel to play their February 26 encounter. Now, three weeks later, that one game will make the difference between a championship or, runners-up for France. The difference between the headline ‘France win Six Nations’ or ‘Scotland win confirms Wales as 2021 title holders’.

Who could not have written a more convoluted story ending than this!

Bonus point/Score calculations might see France win Six Nations

20 points is the winning margin that France must win by. okay, so you might believe a 21-0 result will hand the trophy to Les Bleus. No, it gets even more complicated than that.

As the standings are now, France sits five competition points behind Wales, so winning in the usual manner is simply ‘not enough’.

So, for the outcome to read France win Six Nations; and for Wales to be overtaken, the bonus point must ALSO be claimed. Four tries AND the 20 point margin minimum.

Scotland are not going to simply roll over either.

They can still retrieve a huge boost to their confidence if this group can hold, or even better their hosts in Paris. No, that would never happen and that chance has been boosted by Premiership Rugby clubs permitting players to leave Round 15 clashes to attend this climactic event – a game so important, it might encourage the [percieved incorrigable] French Top14 clubs have followed suit.

This game has many more implications, and with Scottish pride on the line, gaining that four-try/20 point margin is going to take everything that a highly motivated France team can muster.

French hopes balance on BP win over Scotland

While a multitude of calculations and point configurations at play, two factors are prominent. Defence, and accumulating tries.

Now for any side looking at this, naturally a game plan will help however, the ability for Scotland to upset any and all planning is quite evident. Just imagine this:

  • they could score first. That means France must now score five tries to accomplish their goal

  • every penalty kicked by the Scots just adds more scoreline pressure.

On average in 2021, Scotland has scored 27 points across four completed matches. So if they achieve this aggregate, France, therefore, must score a total of 50 points minimum, to take the Six Nations title. You see, it’s not any easier as you thought.

So maybe, France should disregard the calculator, and take a feather from the All Blacks playbook. ‘Just go out there and score more points than the opposition’ strategy. A simple enough game plan. You play a ruthless form of aggressive, fast-flowing rugby, and score as freely as you can. And then maybe after 80 minutes, possibly, that effort has quite simply ‘blasted the opposition off the park!’

And do you know what, France might be one of the only International sides that (on their day) can match that theory? Mind you, Scotland will be doing all they bloody well can, to trip them up. The below graphic illustrates that the visitors have scored very nearly the same number of points this 6 Nations as their hosts. So it is not a done certainty.

Graphic courtesy of Six Nations website.

This 2021 championship title is still well and clearly up for grabs.

The presumptive title holders Wales must sit back, and bide their time – they certainly have done a fine job to lead all comers to this point. Yet they have played one more match, and can only look on at the proceedings this Friday night in Paris.

Either they will hear ‘France wins Six Nations’ or, their challengers go down fighting to a better team.  It is just such a pity that this pandemic has yet again taken away the theatre of this Français v Écossais épique.

France v Scotland – Friday, March 26. Stade de France


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