Eddie Jones’ side have been labelled the overwhelming favourites to win the Guinness Six Nations when it’s likely to be re-scheduled later this year. Last Word have teamed up with Rugby4Cast (R4C) to bring you all the latest data predictions and analysis.
Guinness Six Nations forecasting
Eddie Jones is due a win in this year’s Six Nations according to R4C data.
The Guinness Six Nations may be on hold, but with the four remaining fixtures expected to be played and ‘Super Saturday’ seemingly scheduled for October 31 there is much to discuss in how it’ll end up.
Table toppers England lead on points difference and would head into the final round as championship favourites according to Rugby4Cast data.
Ireland may have two games in hand, compared to their rivals’ one, but R4C data, in coalition with the algorithm has France defeating the Irish by a point.
This, combined with England’s predicted bonus point win over the Italians would see Eddie Jones’ men crowned champions for the first time since 2017.
No one has yet looked completely convincing within the campaign, but Jones’ side have looked the least flawed, despite a late flurry of points conceded against Wales.
Wales have won a disappointing sole game, but home advantage sees them relatively strong favourites according to the R4C system, which has been 82% accurate thus far.
Six Nations tournament chances. Credit Rugby4Cast.
Only three teams are left within a chance of the title – England, Ireland and France.
- England are on 13, and likely to get a 4TBP against Italy. They will therefore end up on 18 points.
- Ireland will also likely get a 4TBP against Italy, and so be on 14 points ahead of their match against France. France are currently on 13 points.
- For France to take the title, they will need to get a 4TBP against Ireland, and beat Ireland by 3 more than England beat Italy, which seems very unlikely (4% by the Algorithm).
- For Ireland to take the title they need to beat France in Paris. If they do so and score 4 tries, they will win outright. If they don’t score 4 tries, then it will come down to whoever beats Italy by the most.
England currently have a 10 point advantage, but Ireland play Italy at home.
Scotland and Wales lie in limbo, fighting for the middle of the table spots. The Scots have an outside shot at second, but would need a whole load of miracles and results to go their way.
Due to the remaining fixture being between the two sides the algorithm’s match prediction leaves Wales as favourites for fourth and Scotland fifth, with Italy nailed on to claim the wooden spoon.
World Rugby ranking knock-on effect
All of these games could well have a knock-on effect come the next Rugby World Cup. Why? Well, because the rankings for the pool seeding comes to a close after the end of the international window, November 22.
This mean the Wales vs. South Africa and England against Australia won’t count towards the RWC seeding.
If Wales keep dropping down the rankings then they would face two top seeds in the pool – see 2015 pools.
They may have got out of the pools that year, but they certainly won’t want the gruelling schedule.
The R4C ranking system shows the world of rugby’s strength in a more relative way than the actual World Rugby rankings, which can be based on form – not opposition – and whether teams don’t play for months, see the southern hemisphere sides.
You can see why Wales are such strong favourites against Scotland, but France’s form hasn’t quite shone through enough yet to prove their position on the map after years in the wilderness.
Italy are very much on a downward curve and as such sit firm in their pre-predicted sixth. France, with new coaches and a youthful era blooding are on an upward curve and should be expected to perform above average for a while, whilst rankings even out after a poor decade or so.
Wales are struggling under new coach Pivac, but will certainly bounce back and England and Ireland look for stability to fight for the title. Expect consistency to struggle for a while due to the stoppages in the season.
Meanwhile, Scotland’s rise sees them come above par rather than into form. A set of wins over Italy and a suicidal France aren’t much to shout about, but does give them another average Six Nations.
“Main photo credit”
