Super Rugby Round Six Forecast

Super Rugby Rd 5 - Cheetahs v Sharks

With a third of the competition complete, the leading sides have all been established. Matches now take on a higher significance, with the forecast of more quality matches in Super Rugby Round Six.

The upcoming round will hold a more Australasian feel, with key match-ups. And with many teams enjoying a Bye; as mentioned last week, changes to the standings hold a mute point until Round Nine.

In saying that, we first revisit the full results of Super Rugby Round Five –

Crusaders 45 Western Force 17 | Melbourne Rebels 25 Waratahs 32 | Blues 38 Bulls 14 | ACT Brumbies 13 Highlanders 18 | Sunwolves 31 Stormers 44 | Southern Kings 19 Lions 42 | Cheetahs 30 Sharks 38 | Jaguares 22 Reds 8

The forecasted match of the round was an outright success. The Cheetahs v Sharks fixture was an especially tasty African inter-conference clash definitely dis-proved the theory that these teams were boring. It was an extremely riveting clash.

In summary, Ryan Jordan stated that the Sharks deserved to win, being more organised “The Cheetahs often threw passes for the sake of passing and have yet to bring quality tactical kicking to their game”. In saying that, Ryan might also say that any team facing the Cheetahs, must be wary of their attacking play.

Five of Eight Games Won by Away Teams

If this is a trend, then the hosts will all need to show 100% focus in the remaining rounds. Visiting teams may have never enjoyed so much success, but that may only reflect the ambition of the away sides. Taking points on the road is still a big consideration.

Who Did Well? #1 – Crusaders

A tip of the hat for returning to more traditional; and less heart attack inducing, methods of winning. Winning well. That is a trend that the side has achieved over a long period, and returning to a winning method of leading early, was a pleasure to watch.

Not to say that the Force were particularly poor. They did a superb job, and in the forward dominated match, only after the game opened up did the home side take the advantage. By taking the bonus point, the Crusaders overtook the Chiefs and Hurricanes [bye], to stand atop the most difficult of conferences [NZ].

Who Did Well? #2 – Lions

Betwen the Blues and Highlanders, each had quality results, yet the Lions did manage to [slightly] repair some damage from their Round three loss. They used the clash with the Kings to convert an advantage and regain the top position in the Africa Two conference.

See above, Jaco Kriel leading the way for the side who pundits have forecast as the leading African team, they had to win convincingly. Last week, they did that.

And all the winners; including the struggling Waratahs, will be sure to bank those points and plan ahead for Super Rugby Round Six.

Standings: NZ Conference – Crusaders | Australian conf – Brumbies | Africa One – Stormers | Africa Two – Lions

News: Japanese referee Shuhei Kubo will referee the match between the Blues and Force in Auckland. It is a progressive referee placement, in order to expose men and women like Kubo to a variety of fixtures. Last Word On Rugby often tire of the same referee rotation, so commend SANZAAR for the direction, and equitable placements.

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Looking at the Forecast Ahead

Having more inter-conference games is the flip-side of the local derby game. It affects both Australasian and African groupings (the later more often) and the close regional sides take short trips. They are very often traditional game–so in a way, a derby match. An example being the Crusaders traveling to Sydney–a well celebrated, traditional clash. These games hold their own against any ‘derby’ game, so this round has plenty to offer.

Super Rugby Round Six Forecast

The official match packs from SANZAAR show some good clashes. Right from Friday night, until the last games late Saturday in the republic, and the third match in a row for the Jaguares, there is ‘something for everyone’. (BYE: Brumbies, Jaguares, Kings, Sunwolves)

Friday March 31 –  Highlanders v Melbourne Rebels, Dunedin

One match is all that fans should look forward to on Friday. It will be a good one though, with the home side wanting to call on their powerful home town support. And even though the away teams won 5/8 last week, the chances of a Rebels win are less than 50%.

Still, Tony Brown is best to stay clear of banana skins, or black cats. And suggest to 100 cap player Aaron Smith, to have a shave–the Magnum PI look is way too 1980’s.

Saturday April 1 – Blues v Western Force, Auckland | Chiefs v Bulls, Hamilton | Reds v Hurricanes, Brisbane | Stormers v Cheetahs, Cape Town | Lions v Sharks, Johannesburg

With more inter-conference matches, a win over the close adversary is on everyone’s minds. The Force would love to tip-up the Blues at home. Although the home sides fortunes may have changed, with confidence growing for men like Melani Nanai and Charlie Faumuina.

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Beauden Barrett of the Hurricanes passes during match between the Reds and the Hurricanes at Suncorp Stadium (Photo by David Kapernick/Getty Images)

In Brisbane, the expected wet conditions may fancy a Reds team to hold the ‘Canes–but can they hold men like Beauden Barrett (above) for longer than 80 minutes? Possible, but the Hurricanes are very capable in either slippery, or dry conditions. And the Stormers v Cheetahs match will be a true derby game. One can imagine the Cheetahs still being confident in their game, however the Stormers were buoyed by the late win over the Sunwolves–that match could go either way.

Across in Joburg, it will be a classic match-up. Few will doubt that Lions v Sharks won’t be anything less than a fight. Referee calls are always important, but as long as the match is clean, there should be a good scoreline. Men like Lwazi Mvovo (see main picture) could again be game-changers where both teams want a bonus point win. Possibly, the desperation for that reward may distract; if the game is tight [or the weather changes].

Sunday April 2 – Waratahs v Crusaders, Sydney

As well as being a fantastic Sunday afternoon fixture [LWOR wishes for more daytime matches] this game has multiple talking points, so qualifies as the ‘Match of the Round’.

Bernard Foley looked to return, but concussion symptoms mean for his safety, he is withdrawn from the game. That might disrupt the side, who are in must win territory. A crucial home win might go a long way towards redirecting their season. Israel Folau at fullback is his natural place, so LWOR hope he can exhibit that amazing skill at Allianz Stadium.

The spoils are split at ‘four wins apiece’ between these clubs in their last eight meetings in New South Wales, with the average winning margin across those games coming in at just four points per game. Those stats courtesy of OPTA Stats, shows how tight the games usually are–although any Crusaders fan will recall the massive 96-19 score in 2002 [still the highest ever Super Rugby score].
Jed Holloway of the Waratahs charges forward during the match between the Crusaders and the Waratahs (Photo by Kai Schwoerer/Getty Images)
Could the ‘Tahs reverse that result? Not likely, but they could grab a slim victory if the conditions favour them.

Top Statistics – Who Impressed?

Try Scorers: Even with a week off, Vince Aso still holds his top spot, but for Round Five Matt Duffie crossed twice and ‘Wolves flyer Kenki Fukuoka has scored four tries in his first five Super Rugby games.

Defenders beaten: Samu Kerevi is now the leader here, with Ngani Laumape still a potent weapon. For the Sharks, Jean-Luc du Preez jumps up and represents the forwards with 21 defenders beaten.

Meters: The big numbers are in, and Stormers fullback SP Marais is leading the way with 416 meters. Shota Emi and Fukuoka show how far the Sunwolves players are running [if they can convert that into wins soon] and then Joaquin Tuculet is looking great for the Jaguares

Ramiro Moyano, of Jaguares, greets fans at the end of the Super Rugby Rd 3 match between Jaguares and Lions at Jose Amalfitani Stadium (Photo by Daniel Jayo/LatinContent/Getty Images)
One to Watch – Ramiro Moyano. With good meters and five tries to his name–the Jag’s winger emulated great wingers like Christian Cullen in Round Five. Be sure to watch this outside back, who gets the ‘double thumbs up’ from LWOR.

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This Week In Rugby History

1958
France won at Cardiff for the first time, with tries from scrum-half Pierre Danos and wing Pierre Tarricq securing a 16-6 victory.

1977
The IRB at its annual meeting decided to introduce free kicks, from which points could not be scored, from the start of the 1977-78 season. This replaced the existing rule which allowed a player to call a mark from anywhere on the field and then take a kick or tap from there.

1985
New Zealand’s Prime Minister warned the NZRFU that the scheduled tour of South Africa could not go ahead. “The government are totally opposed to sporting contact with South Africans outside NZ,” he said. The board stalled as a result and eventually two lawyers successfully sued the NZRFU, claiming such a tour would breach the its constitution. The High Court subsequently stopped the tour.

Note: the following year, the contentious Cavaliers tour went ahead, under huge protest.

The ‘Week in Rugby History’ is sourced from the ESPN UK ‘on this day’ webpage.

 

“Main photo credit”