One of my favorite ways to anticipate fantasy regression for players is to examine how heavily they rely on touchdowns. Weekly touchdown scoring is highly unreliable. Therefore, we can identify fantasy football regression candidates based on how much of their production is based on scoring touchdowns.<\/p>\n
Here are four players from each position that could see a huge change in their weekly production as we approach the fantasy football playoffs.<\/p>\n
QB: Aaron Rodgers<\/a> <\/strong>– Green Bay Packers<\/a> Rodgers ranks fourth in passing yards (2889), but has continued to see a dramatic decrease in his rushing yardage. His rushing yards per game has dropped each of the past three seasons from 16.8 to just 7.8 this season. Rodgers’ one rushing touchdown through nine games is around his seasonal norm, but his 29 passing touchdowns put him on pace for the most since he led the league with 40 in 2016. With a lack of consistent running production, a healthy Aaron Jones<\/a><\/strong>, and head coach Matt LaFleur<\/strong>‘s rushing preference, Rodgers is a prime candidate to see a dip in his 23.4 fantasy points per game. Green Bay’s schedule is favorable, and includes three upcoming home games against Philadelphia, Carolina, and Tennessee. However, the Packers only rank 20th in passing percentage, which could translate to more volume for the Green Bay ground attack.<\/p>\n QB: Baker Mayfield<\/a> <\/strong>– Cleveland Browns<\/a> Mayfield only ranks 27th in passing yardage, making his 15 passing touchdowns over 71% percent of his fantasy production. Nine of Mayfield’s 10 games have failed to yield an overall QB1 performance, even managing to only tally the overall QB6 line when he passed for five touchdowns against Cincinnati in Week 7. With only 75 rushing yards on 25 carries, Mayfield is nothing more than a stationary game manager. The Browns lost leading wide receiver Odell Beckham<\/a><\/strong> Jr. and now have a healthy Nick Chubb<\/a>,<\/strong> reducing Mayfield’s fantasy value even more. I have little confidence in Mayfield despite favorable road games against the Jaguars, Titans, and Jets.<\/p>\n QB: Daniel Jones<\/a> <\/strong>– New York Giants<\/a> Jones has been a huge disappointment this season, with just eight touchdowns and nine interception while ranking just 21st in passing yards (2114). However, he will now start one of the most favorable stretches of opponents for any fantasy quarterback. Starting this week at Cincinnati, Jones will face four consecutive opponents that rank in the bottom third of the league in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Jones’ 38.4 rushing yards per game ranks fourth, with 64 rushing yards or more in three of his past five games. Over his past three games, Jones has three overall QB13 or better performances. If he can just find a couple more touchdown passes per game, Jones could be a high-end QB1 the remainder of the fantasy season.<\/p>\n QB: Matthew Stafford<\/a> <\/strong>– Detroit Lions<\/a> Matthew Stafford's time in Detroit summed up in one GIF<\/p>\n (via @ChadwikoRCC) pic.twitter.com\/YspIppQNqj<\/a><\/p>\n — Pushing the Pile Podcast (@pushingthepile) November 15, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n
\nValue:<\/strong>\u00a0 52.2%
\nAnticipated Regression:<\/strong> Negative<\/p>\n
\nValue:\u00a0<\/strong> 47.8%
\nAnticipated Regression:<\/strong> Negative<\/p>\n
\nValue:<\/strong>\u00a0 35.6%
\nAnticipated Regression:<\/strong> Positive<\/p>\n
\nValue:<\/strong>\u00a0 34.1%
\nAnticipated Regression:<\/strong> Positive<\/p>\n\n