{"id":94315,"date":"2020-09-08T22:25:51","date_gmt":"2020-09-09T02:25:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/?p=94315"},"modified":"2020-09-08T22:25:51","modified_gmt":"2020-09-09T02:25:51","slug":"a-successful-rookie-season-for-justin-jefferson","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/2020\/09\/08\/a-successful-rookie-season-for-justin-jefferson\/","title":{"rendered":"A Successful Rookie Season for Justin Jefferson"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Since <strong>Justin Jefferson<\/strong> was drafted in the first round, writers have spilled a lot of digital ink setting unrealistic expectations for his rookie season. Fans and writers alike would be wise to adjust their expectations. Justin Jefferson\u2019s rookie season will be a success if he simply contributes to a balanced <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/nfl-teams\/vikings\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_self\">Minnesota Vikings<\/a> offense.<\/p>\n<h2>Justin Jefferson Rookie Season<\/h2>\n<p>Receivers often struggle to contribute in their rookie season. <em>The<\/em> <em>Athletic<\/em>\u2019s Sheil Kapadia <a href=\"https:\/\/theathletic.com\/2021780\/2020\/08\/27\/25-fantasy-numbers-you-need-to-know-before-your-draft\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">recently found<\/a> that over the past 10 years, first-round receivers average 541 receiving yards in their rookie season (<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/T\/TreaLa00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Laquon Treadwell<\/a><\/strong> isn\u2019t helping here). Kapadia further notes that (again, over the past 10 years) only five out of 34 first-round receivers produced more than 1,000 yards in their rookie season. If you move beyond the first round, there are only eight receivers who produced 1,000-yard seasons.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Enjoy the flight \u2708\ufe0f<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/KirkCousins8?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">@KirkCousins8<\/a> x <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/JJettas2?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">@JJettas2<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/hFhuQw42Ga\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/hFhuQw42Ga<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Vikings\/status\/1296561697818324994?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">August 20, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Last season represented somewhat of an anomaly. <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/M\/McLaTe00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Terry McLaurin<\/a><\/strong>, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/M\/MetcDK00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">D.K. Metcalf<\/a><\/strong>, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/B\/BrowAJ00.htm\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">A.J. Brown<\/a><\/strong>, and <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/S\/SamuDe00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Deebo Samuel<\/a><\/strong> all had tremendous seasons. Keep in mind that Brown was the only one to surpass 1,000 yards. These four receivers prove that it\u2019s far from impossible to make an immediate impact in one\u2019s rookie season. Nevertheless, Vikings fans shouldn\u2019t be too quick to assume that Jefferson will seamlessly adjust to the NFL.<\/p>\n<p>As Vikings fans already know, the vast majority of Jefferson\u2019s production came from the slot at LSU. Rotoworld <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rotoworld.com\/college-football\/nfl-draft\/player\/40512\/justin-jefferson\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">provides<\/a> some succinct details about his production last season, so interested fans should take a look. Here are a few notable numbers: 78 percent of his routes were from the slot. 92 percent of his catches came from the slot. 1,540 of his receiving yards were created from ins, outs, and crossing routes. Vikings fans should be cautiously optimistic about these numbers.<\/p>\n<p>Oftentimes, fans \u2013 and coaches, for that matter \u2013 are far too concerned about what a player <em>can\u2019t<\/em> do rather than what he <em>can<\/em> do. Can Jefferson consistently win along the outside against NFL press coverage? Frankly, it\u2019s hard to say; he\u2019ll likely struggle early. Can Jefferson consistently win on underneath routes from the slot in the NFL? Again, it\u2019s difficult to say, but the college numbers suggest that he has a good chance.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Solid route here by Justin Jefferson <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/tZa0mznqVQ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/tZa0mznqVQ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Nick Olson (@NickOlsonNFL) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NickOlsonNFL\/status\/1295147734513614848?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">August 16, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>In <em>Take Your Eye Off The Ball<\/em>, <strong>Pat Kirwan<\/strong> (a former NFL coach and executive) explains that smart coaches spend their off-season trying \u201cto maximize the strengths they see emerging\u201d while working to \u201celiminate the obvious problem areas.\u201d When he coached for the Vikings, <strong>Pat Shurmur<\/strong> brought this sentiment down to his play-calling, often explaining that \u201cit\u2019s about the players, not the plays.\u201d In other words, Shurmur understood that the key rests in understanding what a player does well. A smart coach adjusts their plays to player strengths. Just think back to when <strong>John DeFilippo<\/strong> was offensive coordinator for an example of a coach failing to adjust the plays to his players.<\/p>\n<p>The Vikings, thankfully, have a smart coaching staff. Expect them to use Jefferson from the slot, especially early in the year. The Vikings have their bye in Week 7. The likeliest scenario is that the Vikings opt to keep Jefferson primarily in the slot during the season\u2019s opening six weeks. They\u2019ll head into the bye with a greater understanding of Jefferson\u2019s abilities, perhaps prompting them to expand his repertoire if he is successful. In so doing, <strong>Gary Kubiak<\/strong> may have more flexibility in his play calls and personnel packages. In the meantime, Vikings fans should expect to see Jefferson in the slot against the <a href=\"http:\/\/lastwordonprofootball.com\/nfl-teams\/packers\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Green Bay Packers<\/a>. Kubiak will find ways to get the ball into his hands.<\/p>\n<h2>Replacing Diggs<\/h2>\n<p>Justin Jefferson will not replace <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/D\/DiggSt00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Stefon Diggs<\/a><\/strong>. It\u2019s plausible that one day Jefferson will replicate Diggs\u2019 success, but that will only come with time. The Vikings will replace Diggs by getting increased production from several players: Jefferson, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/search\/search.fcgi?pid=SmitIr01,SmitIr00&amp;search=Irv+Smith&amp;utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Irv Smith<\/a><\/strong>, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/C\/CookDa01.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Dalvin Cook<\/a><\/strong>, and <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/T\/ThieAd00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Adam Thielen<\/a><\/strong> foremost among them. As a result, success in Jefferson\u2019s rookie season does not mean a straightforward, one-for-one Diggs replacement.<\/p>\n<p>Indeed, evaluating Jefferson\u2019s success needs to consider his impact within the offense in its entirety. <strong>Mike Zimmer<\/strong> consistently reiterates that his vision for the offense is to be unpredictable because of their balance, a perspective Kubiak shares. Jefferson\u2019s success ought to be measured by how much he can contribute to actualizing Zimmer\u2019s vision.<\/p>\n<p>Somewhat ironically, the Vikings and their fans should hope Jefferson mirrors Diggs\u2019 rookie numbers. In 2015, Diggs had 52 catches, 720 yards, and four touchdowns. Jefferson will be operating within an offense where he\u2019ll, at best, be the third or fourth option. Thielen and Cook will attract plenty of attention from <strong>Kirk Cousins<\/strong>, and they should rightfully be the first and second option in the passing game. Minnesota should be thrilled if Jefferson produces more than 50 catches and 700 yards, especially since he\u2019ll also be competing with Smith, <strong>Bisi Johnson<\/strong>, and <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/R\/RudoKy00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Kyle Rudolph<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>If Justin Jefferson can be a legitimate weapon out of the slot \u2013 someone who demands attention from opposing defenses \u2013 then his rookie season will be a success.<\/p>\n<p><a id=\"Cqf2RxYESiN6E9APR1aSvw\" class=\"gie-single\" href=\"http:\/\/www.gettyimages.com\/detail\/1228096458\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Embed from Getty Images<\/a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'Cqf2RxYESiN6E9APR1aSvw',sig:'y9u0bLaUeP1ErY0AvOKrox_Q1f-InUI1WUQFzCwZ90s=',w:'594px',h:'409px',items:'1228096458',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});<\/script><script src='\/\/embed-cdn.gettyimages.com\/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Since Justin Jefferson was drafted in the first round, writers have spilled a lot of digital ink setting unrealistic expectations for his rookie season.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3613,"featured_media":94363,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[54,26],"tags":[61,313,6181,802,45,40],"class_list":["post-94315","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-editorials","category-vikings","tag-football","tag-gary-kubiak","tag-justin-jefferson","tag-mike-zimmer","tag-minnesota-vikings","tag-nfl"],"modified_by":"John Bava","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94315","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3613"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=94315"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94315\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/94363"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=94315"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=94315"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=94315"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}