{"id":93763,"date":"2020-08-29T15:48:29","date_gmt":"2020-08-29T19:48:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonprofootball.com\/?p=93763"},"modified":"2020-08-29T16:15:50","modified_gmt":"2020-08-29T20:15:50","slug":"fantasy-football-nyheim-hines-marlon-mack","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/2020\/08\/29\/fantasy-football-nyheim-hines-marlon-mack\/","title":{"rendered":"Fantasy Football: Draft Nyheim Hines Over Marlon Mack"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Indianapolis Colts<\/a> backfield is one of the most fascinating in fantasy football. The team just brought in checkdown enthusiast Philip Rivers<\/a><\/strong> and selected arguably the most talented running back in the 2020 NFL Draft in Jonathan Taylor<\/strong><\/a>. However, incumbent Marlon Mack<\/a><\/strong> will keep the job in the short-term, and Rivers\u2019 penchant for targeting running backs makes Mack interesting to some. However, a deeper dive shows that Nyheim Hines<\/a><\/strong> is the best fantasy football value in the that backfield.<\/p>\n

Fantasy Football Player Profiles<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Draft Nyheim Hines Over Marlon Mack in Fantasy Football<\/h2>\n

Target Distribution<\/h3>\n

Chasing volume is typically a good thing for fantasy football, but some touches are more valuable than others. It\u2019s no secret that the average reception is worth more in fantasy than the average carry, and that\u2019s especially true in PPR formats. Depending on your league scoring, targets can carry approximately the same fantasy value as 2.83 carries.<\/p>\n

Nyheim Hines is clearly superior to Marlon Mack as a pass-catcher. Over the course of his career, Mack has never recorded more than 21 receptions or 225 receiving yards in a single season, and his pass-catching numbers have decreased every year since he entered the league. Hines, meanwhile, has 64 receptions for 425 yards as a rookie and 44 receptions for 320 yards in 2019.<\/p>\n

Targets may be more valuable than carries on a per-touch basis, but there\u2019s typically more carries than targets to go around. However, that is not the case when Philip Rivers is your quarterback. Throughout the course of his career, Rivers has always thrown the ball to his running backs at a high rate. Last year, he allowed Austin Ekeler<\/a><\/strong> and Melvin Gordon<\/a><\/strong> to combine for 134 receptions, 1,289 receiving yards, and nine touchdowns on 163 targets. This was far from a one-year outlier, as he\u2019s also turned guys like Danny Woodhead<\/a> <\/strong>and Darren Sproles<\/a><\/strong> into PPR gods during his time with the Chargers.<\/p>\n

The Jonathan Taylor Effect<\/h3>\n

Even with Rivers in town, Mack would be the more enviable fantasy option if he had full control of the early-down and goal line work. However, the presence of Jonathan Taylor basically ensures that won\u2019t happen. Taylor is an absolute monster of a man, and several draft analysts had him as the top running back in the class.<\/p>\n

Head coach Frank Reich<\/a><\/strong> said that Mack will enter the season as the starter, but they\u2019re going to go with the \u201chot hand<\/a>\u201d on a week-to-week basis. This implies that Taylor will earn enough carries early in the season to prove himself, and the obvious talent disparity between Taylor and Mack suggests that Taylor will have the \u201chot hand\u201d before long. Taylor\u2019s physical gifts and draft capital combined with Indianapolis\u2019 elite offensive line means that Taylor should dominate, so Mack probably won\u2019t have the lead job for anything more than six weeks.<\/p>\n

Admittedly, by this same logic, Taylor could eat into the pass-catching work. However, a deeper dive shows that to be pretty unlikely. Taylor is a freak as a runner, but he never did much as a receiver while at school. He\u2019s not a great pass-blocker and never recorded more than 26 receptions in a single season.<\/p>\n

There are exceptions to the rule, but generally speaking, running backs don\u2019t tend to increase their target share once they come into the NFL. Additionally, the rookie has reportedly struggled with drops<\/a> in camp, so Hines should have a safe, reliable target share.<\/p>\n

Marlon Mack, Nyheim Hines ADP<\/h3>\n

If both players were going off the board at the same time, one could make a case for taking Nyheim Hines over Marlon Mack. However, taking a look at their ADP makes the decision an easy one. According to FantasyPros Average Draft Position, Marlon Mack is currently the 33rd<\/sup> running back off the board. Nyheim Hines, meanwhile, is all the way down at RB54.<\/p>\n

Quite frankly, this is highway robbery. Nyheim Hines is clearly the best pass-catching running back on the roster, and he\u2019s playing with a quarterback that loves to dump the ball off to his backs. Targets are incredibly valuable in fantasy, and Hines has an outside shot to finish the season with 100 targets. While he won\u2019t receive enough handoffs to possess RB1 upside, he should be a solid flex play throughout the season.<\/p>\n

Mack, meanwhile, possesses a limited skill set and will clearly lose his job before long. Jonathan Taylor is the better, more complete runner and the organization wouldn\u2019t use an early-second round pick on him if they didn\u2019t plan on him winning the starting job sooner rather than later. Hines is one of the best values in fantasy and should be an easy selection with one of your last picks.<\/p>\n

Fantasy Football Player Profiles<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Main photo:
\nEmbed from Getty Images<\/a>