The NFL season is right around the corner, and with it comes the fantasy football season. Winning your league is all about finding value in the late rounds, but it\u2019s just as important to make the right picks early. The following five players are currently going way too early in fantasy football drafts and could be some of the biggest busts on the season.<\/p>\n
This isn\u2019t to say that these players won\u2019t carry any fantasy value in 2020. Some of these players should have solid fantasy seasons. This list simply exists to show players that have a large discrepancy between their projected 2020 finish and their current average draft position<\/a>.<\/p>\n Top Five Fantasy Football Steals of 2020<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n Note: Rankings given in PPR formats, and Average Draft Position provided by FantasyPros<\/em><\/p>\n Derrick Henry<\/a><\/strong> is a ridiculously talented running back, but it\u2019s hard to see a world where he lives up to his RB6 average draft position in PPR leagues. Targets are approximately 2.83 times more valuable than carries in fantasy, and Henry doesn\u2019t see much work in the passing game. Last year, Henry saw just 24 targets despite never leaving the field.<\/p>\n If Henry is going to justify this ADP, he\u2019ll need to lead the league in total rushing yards and touchdowns. He managed to do that last year, but the odds aren\u2019t great for him doing that a second time. As mentioned in his profile<\/a>, Henry only became an unstoppable force when Ryan Tannehill<\/a><\/strong> entered the lineup. Tannehill is back in 2020, but he almost certainly won\u2019t play as well as he did last year. When Tannehill comes back to Earth, Henry\u2019s efficiency numbers are going to take a sizable dip. Henry will still be a borderline RB1, but he\u2019s not a top-six back.<\/p>\n DeAndre Hopkins<\/a><\/strong> might be the most talented receiver in the league, but he\u2019s going to have a tough time justifying his WR3 ADP. Continuity matters more than ever in this shortened offseason, and that\u2019s bad news for Hopkins. The Arizona Cardinals acquired the talented receiver in the offseason, and now he has to develop a rapport with Kyler Murray<\/a><\/strong> and learn the offense without a preseason.<\/p>\n Even in a regular offseason, Hopkins would probably see a dip in production. Historically speaking<\/a>, receivers switching teams need a year before they\u2019re able to produce like their old selves. There are exceptions to the rule, and Hopkins certainly has the talent to justify his current ADP. However, the odds aren\u2019t in his favor and you\u2019re probably better off going with someone like Julio Jones<\/a><\/strong> or Tyreek Hill<\/a><\/strong> at WR3.<\/p>\n Betting on Juju Smith-Schuster<\/strong><\/a> to finish as the WR13 also means betting on an age-38 Ben Roethlisberger<\/a><\/strong> coming back from a serious injury to his throwing elbow without missing a step. We all know how good Smith-Schuster can be when Roethlisberger is on the field, but we also know that Smith-Schuster isn\u2019t quarterback-proof. Last year, Juju recorded just 42 receptions for 552 yards and three touchdowns while catching passes from Mason Rudolph<\/a><\/strong> and Devlin Hodges<\/a><\/strong>. Granted, injury had something to do with that limited production, but the fact remains that he simply wasn\u2019t the same guy without Roethlisberger.<\/p>\n Even if Roethlisberger plays a full 16-game schedule, Smith-Schuster still probably won\u2019t match his 2018 production. Roethlisberger led the league with a staggering 675 passing attempts. It\u2019s hard to imagine a world where Pittsburgh lets that happen again, especially with Antonio Brown<\/a><\/strong> out of town. Smith-Schuster should have a fine season, but he\u2019s not going to be the 13th<\/sup>-best receiver in fantasy.<\/p>\n Devin Singletary<\/a><\/strong> will receive work in 2020, but he won\u2019t receive too many valuable touches. The easiest path to fantasy relevance is through touchdowns and targets, and Singletary probably won\u2019t receive much work<\/a> in either field. Last year, the team used Frank Gore<\/a><\/strong> as the primary goal line back. Gore might be gone, but the team used a third-round pick on the 223-pound Zack Moss<\/strong><\/a>. Moss is better suited to be the goal line back and will probably receive those valuable touches.<\/p>\n Josh Allen<\/a><\/strong> rarely checks the ball down, so there won\u2019t be too many running back targets to go around. What few targets there are, however, will probably go to Moss. Singletary was absolutely atrocious in the passing game last year, finishing as the third-worst receiving back by Football Outsiders\u2019 receiving DVOA. Moss is a much more natural pass-catcher and should take those third down targets. Singletary will get work on early downs between the 20\u2019s, but that just isn\u2019t very valuable for fantasy.<\/p>\n Rounding out the list of fantasy football busts is tight end Darren Waller<\/a>.\u00a0<\/strong>Waller had a fantastic breakout season last year, finishing as the TE3 in PPR leagues. However, a deeper dive in the numbers shows that he probably won\u2019t repeat that success in 2020. Waller owes a lot of his success to being the only man in town. Antonio Brown didn\u2019t play a single game with the Raiders, Tyrell Williams<\/a><\/strong> suffered a foot injury early on, and Hunter Renfrow<\/a><\/strong> was a rookie. By default, Waller became the top option in the passing attack and saw a notable drop in production once Hunter Renfow was healthy and established.<\/p>\n Waller is going to have a much harder time finding targets this year. This is still a run-first team, but the Raiders added Henry Ruggs<\/a>, Bryan Edwards<\/a><\/strong>, and Lynn Bowden<\/strong><\/a> in the NFL Draft. These guys, along with Renfrow, will eat into Waller\u2019s target share. Waller will still be involved, but you\u2019re better off going with a late-round tight end than using mid-round capital on a guy that\u2019s going to take a major step back.<\/p>\n Top Five Fantasy Football Steals of 2020<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n Main photo:Fantasy Football Busts in 2020<\/h2>\n
Derrick Henry<\/h4>\n
DeAndre Hopkins<\/h4>\n
Juju Smith-Schuster<\/h4>\n
Devin Singletary<\/h4>\n
Darren Waller<\/h4>\n
\nEmbed from Getty Images<\/a>