{"id":90812,"date":"2020-06-29T23:21:43","date_gmt":"2020-06-30T03:21:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonprofootball.com\/?p=90812"},"modified":"2020-06-29T23:21:43","modified_gmt":"2020-06-30T03:21:43","slug":"rb1-opportunity-share-series-afc-north","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/2020\/06\/29\/rb1-opportunity-share-series-afc-north\/","title":{"rendered":"RB1 Opportunity Share Series: AFC North"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>If I was given one wish for the 2020 Fantasy Football season, it would be to properly handicap the RB1 opportunity share for every NFL team. That position is the most critical this season, with an overwhelming number of running backs being drafted in the first two rounds. When projecting the opportunity share for the upcoming season, it is important to include several different factors.<\/p>\n<h2>Projecting RB1 Opportunity Share For Each NFL Team<\/h2>\n<p>Most fantasy drafters simply examine the running back opportunity share based on past performance and if a new running back was added to the depth chart. Those factors are not nearly as important as how that running back performed last season in games they were healthy and received the majority of touches. Even if a reduced sample, it provides the best window into the potential opportunity share for the 2020 season.<\/p>\n<p>For each team&#8217;s projected starting running back, I listed the opportunity share from the 2019 season in games they started and did not leave due to injury. For players that joined new teams (i.e <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/G\/GurlTo01.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Todd Gurley<\/a><\/strong> in Atlanta), I used the stats from last year&#8217;s primary starting running back (i.e. <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/F\/FreeDe00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Devonta Freeman<\/a><\/strong>). While the skill set may not match perfectly, it gives us a strong projection of usage for 2020.<\/p>\n<p>In this eight-part series, we will examine the projected lead running backs for each NFL division. Let\u2019s examine with the AFC North.<\/p>\n<h3>Baltimore Ravens<\/h3>\n<p><strong>2019 RB1: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/search\/search.fcgi?pid=IngrMa01,IngrMa00&amp;search=Mark+Ingram&amp;utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Mark Ingram<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Games:<\/strong> 15<br \/>\n<strong>Rushes:<\/strong> 36.59 percent<br \/>\n<strong>Rushing Yards:<\/strong> 33.13 percent<br \/>\n<strong>Targets:<\/strong> 7.18 percent<br \/>\n<strong>Receptions:<\/strong> 9.35 percent<br \/>\n<strong>Receiving Yards:<\/strong> 7.59 percent<br \/>\n<strong>Touchdowns:<\/strong> 26.32 percent<br \/>\n<strong>2020 RB1:<\/strong>\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/search\/search.fcgi?pid=IngrMa01,IngrMa00&amp;search=Mark+Ingram&amp;utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Mark Ingram<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">How worried are fantasy \u201cexperts\u201d about JK Dobbins\u2019 potential drain on Mark Ingram\u2019s value?<\/p>\n<p>The veteran just fell to 6.06 in a 12-team .5 PPR draft.<\/p>\n<p>At that price, I could not resist.<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Brad Evans (@NoisyHuevos) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NoisyHuevos\/status\/1257105397959229440?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">May 4, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><strong>Outlook:\u00a0<\/strong> Ingram owners are nervous. His low 36.59 percent carry percentage was offset by Baltimore&#8217;s league-high 54.1 percent team run rate. Ingram must now contend with second-round pick <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonprofootball.com\/2020\/03\/10\/j-k-dobbins-2020-nfl-draft-profile\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong>J.K. Dobbins<\/strong><\/a>, who produced over 2,000 rushing yards and 23 touchdowns for Ohio State in 2019. Ingram&#8217;s passing game impact was minimal, ranking outside the Top 40 in both running back targets and receptions. He needs the Ravens to limit <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/J\/JackLa00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Lamar Jackson<\/a><\/strong>&#8216;s red zone runs in the hopes of maintaining his superior touchdown efficiency. However, fantasy drafters have overcorrected for these concerns, currently ranking Ingram outside the Top 24 running backs in Best Ball ADP. The Dobbins impact is real, but barring significant touchdown regression, Ingram is a lock for an overall RB2 or better season.<\/p>\n<h3>Cincinnati Bengals<\/h3>\n<p><strong>2019 RB: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/M\/MixoJo00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Joe Mixon<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Games:<\/strong> 16<br \/>\n<strong>Rushes:<\/strong> 72.21 percent<br \/>\n<strong>Rushing Yards:<\/strong> 74.95 percent<br \/>\n<strong>Targets:<\/strong> 7.64 percent<br \/>\n<strong>Receptions:<\/strong> 9.83 percent<br \/>\n<strong>Receiving Yards:<\/strong> 7.19 percent<br \/>\n<strong>Touchdowns:<\/strong> 29.63 percent<br \/>\n<strong>2020 RB1:<\/strong>\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/M\/MixoJo00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Joe Mixon<\/a><\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/Brickwallblitz\/status\/1274031359070277640?s=20<\/p>\n<p><strong>Outlook:\u00a0<\/strong> Mixon had an underrated ending to the fantasy season. Starting in Week 8, Mixon&#8217;s 883 rushing yards ranked second (<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/H\/HenrDe00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Derrick Henry<\/a><\/strong>) at the position and he was sixth overall in running back fantasy points. Mixon&#8217;s limited (eight) touchdown production was a direct result of a Bengals team that ranked last in team touchdown rate (1.8 per game). Even with concerns playing with a rookie quarterback, first overall draft pick <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonprofootball.com\/2020\/02\/03\/joe-burrow-2020-nfl-draft-profile\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong>Joe Burrow<\/strong><\/a> should be an improvement over last season&#8217;s combination of <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/D\/DaltAn00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Andy Dalton<\/a><\/strong> and <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/F\/FinlRy00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Ryan Finley<\/a> <\/strong>(18 touchdowns, 16 interceptions). Ranking fourth and eighth in positional rushing yards respectively the past two seasons, Mixon enjoys elite rushing volume at fantasy&#8217;s most important position.<\/p>\n<h3>Cleveland Browns<\/h3>\n<p><strong>2019 RB: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/C\/ChubNi00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Nick Chubb<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Games:<\/strong> 16<br \/>\n<strong>Rushes:<\/strong> 75.83 percent<br \/>\n<strong>Rushing Yards:<\/strong> 78.59 percent<br \/>\n<strong>Targets:<\/strong> 9.48 percent<br \/>\n<strong>Receptions:<\/strong> 11.32 percent<br \/>\n<strong>Receiving Yards:<\/strong> 7.23 percent<br \/>\n<strong>Touchdowns:<\/strong> 21.62 percent<br \/>\n<strong>2020 RB1:<\/strong>\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/C\/ChubNi00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Nick Chubb<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Nick Chubb = really, really good<\/p>\n<p>Kareem Hunt = also really, really good<\/p>\n<p>The Browns actually addressed their o-line this offseason and have the look of a post-hype sleeper entering 2020.<\/p>\n<p>Both RBs are worth pursuing at their current ADPs: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/GufKIhTtsS\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/t.co\/GufKIhTtsS<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Ihartitz\/status\/1272926340531044363?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">June 16, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><strong>Outlook:\u00a0<\/strong> Nick Chubb has the overall RB1 in his 2020 range of outcomes. Cleveland committed to improving their <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pff.com\/news\/nfl-offensive-line-rankings-following-2019-regular-season\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">23rd ranked offensive line<\/a> with the signing of tackle <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/C\/ConkJa00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Jack Conklin<\/a><\/strong> and drafting of Alabama tackle <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonprofootball.com\/2020\/03\/05\/jedrick-wills-2020-nfl-draft-profile\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong>Jedrick Wills<\/strong><\/a>. The Browns&#8217; unit is projected as the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pff.com\/news\/nfl-most-improved-nfl-offensive-lines-2020-offseason\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">most improved offensive line by PFF<\/a>. Chubb dominated the rushing work with the largest rushing attempt and rushing yards percentage of any other running back. Chubb only averaged one less rushing attempt per game with <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/H\/HuntKa00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Kareem Hunt<\/a><\/strong> in the lineup and should see even more opportunity with new head coach <strong>Kevin Stefanski<\/strong>&#8216;s preference for two tight end sets. With no third wide receiver of consequence, look for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/nfl\/news\/kareem-hunt-training-with-browns-wide-receivers-during-teams-virtual-offseason-program\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Cleveland to take advantage of having Chubb and Hunt on the field together<\/a>. Assuming an improvement in Cleveland&#8217;s overall offense, Chubb should see more scoring opportunities, negating any decrease in receiving work. With a low-end RB1 ADP, Chubb is one of my favorite Round 2 picks in any format.<\/p>\n<h3>Pittsburgh Steelers<\/h3>\n<p><strong>2019 RB: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/C\/ConnJa00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">James Conner<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Games:<\/strong>\u00a0 7<br \/>\n<strong>Rushes:<\/strong> 60.63 percent<br \/>\n<strong>Rushing Yards:<\/strong> 61.59 percent<br \/>\n<strong>Targets:<\/strong> 13.90 percent<br \/>\n<strong>Receptions:<\/strong> 20.14 percent<br \/>\n<strong>Receiving Yards:<\/strong> 15.91 percent<br \/>\n<strong>Touchdowns:<\/strong> 33.33 percent<br \/>\n<strong>2020 RB1:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/C\/ConnJa00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">James Conner<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">You know who else is really excited about the return of <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Steelers?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">#Steelers<\/a> Ben Roethlisberger?<\/p>\n<p>James Conner \ud83d\udc47 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/xDwtqT93Kl\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/xDwtqT93Kl<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; For The Numbers (@OldSchool0909) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/OldSchool0909\/status\/1273032680804880392?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">June 16, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><strong>Outlook:\u00a0<\/strong> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If James Conner plays a full 16 games this season, he will be a top-five fantasy football running back. Conner crested the 60 percent barrier in both rushing attempts and rushing yards in his seven games played last season. Pittsburgh is typically a one-back system, and Conner will be the clear top choice to start 2020. Per <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Sharp Football Analysis<\/a>, Conner has the second-easiest run schedule this year among all running backs. He remains one of the best pass-catching backs in football, leaving his fantasy success simply dependent on health. At his current RB18 ADP, there are few RB1s with a bigger upside than Conner from an opportunity share standpoint.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"fNSuMvztQzte7It4Lrjgbw\" class=\"gie-single\" style=\"color: #a7a7a7; text-decoration: none; font-weight: normal !important; border: none; display: inline-block;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.gettyimages.com\/detail\/1195450678\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Embed from Getty Images<\/a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'fNSuMvztQzte7It4Lrjgbw',sig:'Z4kGYMYaM4ufX7XU0HQ8flDLhm3s0-Q295-Rm9O-BUg=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'1195450678',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});<\/script><script src='\/\/embed-cdn.gettyimages.com\/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Most project fantasy football RB1 opportunity share based on the depth chart. More important is how a player performed with the majority of touches in 2019.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1103,"featured_media":90936,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[59,10,7,8,9],"tags":[294,6497,2793,2364,1911,2234,493,40,3584],"class_list":["post-90812","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fantasy","category-ravens","category-bengals","category-browns","category-steelers","tag-fantasy-football","tag-j-k-dobbins","tag-jack-conklin","tag-james-conner","tag-joe-mixon","tag-kareem-hunt","tag-mark-ingram","tag-nfl","tag-nick-chubb"],"modified_by":"John Bava","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90812","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=90812"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90812\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/90936"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=90812"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=90812"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=90812"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}