{"id":88468,"date":"2020-05-28T18:46:51","date_gmt":"2020-05-28T22:46:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonprofootball.com\/?p=88468"},"modified":"2020-05-28T18:47:27","modified_gmt":"2020-05-28T22:47:27","slug":"balancing-safety-with-upside-fantasy-football-darius-slayton","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/2020\/05\/28\/balancing-safety-with-upside-fantasy-football-darius-slayton\/","title":{"rendered":"Balancing Safety With Upside in Fantasy Football: Featuring Darius Slayton, Marvin Jones, and More"},"content":{"rendered":"

The fantasy football adage to remember each season is, “You can’t win your fantasy draft in the early rounds, but you certainly can lose it.” It is important to prioritize safety in the early rounds of seasonal drafts. This is where the overwhelming majority of your weekly points will be scored. Busting on a first or second-round draft pick is a death sentence for a fantasy football championship. Taking risks in later rounds, though, can help win it all. Here we will go over why that’s the case, and some good players to draft in that range–including Darius Slayton, Marvin Jones, and others.<\/p>\n

Safety With Upside Wins in Fantasy Football: Featuring Darius Slayton, Marvin Jones, and More<\/h2>\n

Here are the biggest fantasy busts over the past five seasons:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Player<\/td>\nYear<\/td>\nADP<\/td>\nFinish<\/td>\nReason<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Eddie Lacy<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n2015<\/td>\nRB2<\/td>\nRB26<\/td>\nSlow start caused by weight<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
C.J. Anderson<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n2015<\/td>\nRB10<\/td>\nRB30<\/td>\nLimited production<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Andrew Luck<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n2015<\/td>\nQB1<\/td>\nQB28<\/td>\nBattled injuries behind poor OL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Marshawn Lynch<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n2015<\/td>\nRB5<\/td>\nRB55<\/td>\nInjuries<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Todd Gurley<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n2016<\/td>\nRB2<\/td>\nRB19<\/td>\nLess production despite more volume<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
DeAndre Hopkins<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n2016<\/td>\nWR5<\/td>\nWR38<\/td>\nQBs Tom Savage<\/a> <\/strong>& Brock Osweiler<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Allen Robinson<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n2016<\/td>\nWR6<\/td>\nWR29<\/td>\nQB Blake Bortles<\/a>,<\/strong> poor team<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Brandon Marshall<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n2016<\/td>\nWR10<\/td>\nWR53<\/td>\nFitzpatrick & Jets disappointed<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mike Evans<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n2017<\/td>\nWR4<\/td>\nWR20<\/td>\nOnly 1 game > 100; 4 total touchdowns<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Odell Beckham<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n2017<\/td>\nWR3<\/td>\nWR82<\/td>\nFractured ankle after 4 games<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
David Johnson<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n2017<\/td>\nRB2<\/td>\nRB120<\/td>\nHurt in first game of the season<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jordy Nelson<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n2017<\/td>\nWR5<\/td>\nWR50<\/td>\n53 recs, 482 yards, 6 TDs; A. Rodgers missed 9 games<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Amari Cooper<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n2017<\/td>\nWR7<\/td>\nWR31<\/td>\n48 recs, 680 yards, 7 TDs in 14 full games<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Le’Veon Bell<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n2018<\/td>\nRB1<\/td>\nDNP<\/td>\nHeld out entire season<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Leonard Fournette<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n2018<\/td>\nRB7<\/td>\nRB37<\/td>\nInjuries; Played 8 games; No 100-yard rushing performances<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Devonta Freeman<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n2018<\/td>\nRB12<\/td>\nRB107<\/td>\nMissed all but 2 games with injuries<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
David Johnson<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n2019<\/td>\nRB5<\/td>\nRB37<\/td>\nPoor performance, injuries<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Damien Williams<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n2019<\/td>\nRB14<\/td>\nRB34<\/td>\nPoor performance, injuries<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Odell Beckham<\/strong><\/a><\/td>\n2019<\/td>\nWR5<\/td>\nWR31<\/td>\nPoor individual and team performance<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
JuJu Smith-Schuster<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n2019<\/td>\nWR6<\/td>\nWR66<\/td>\nPoor performance<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

Overcoming those selections proved to be almost impossible given the performance differential ceded to other players. Taking risky players with early-round redraft picks can lead to a rough fantasy season. However, in the mid to late-round selections, risking volatility for upside is the path to win a fantasy title.<\/p>\n

Fantasy football expert Scott Barrett outlined this concept beautifully<\/a> in a recent article for FantasyPoints.<\/a> He explains that just like in the stock market, low-risk\/high-reward stocks are the most valuable commodity. If you are trying a field of (normally) 11 other players, you need to distinguish your roster in order to gain an advantage. Drafting safe players late is a conservative and losing play.<\/p>\n

Using current Best Ball ADP data, here are my favorite mid to late-round players that could win you a 2020 fantasy football championship.<\/p>\n

(All statistics from PlayerProfiler<\/a>).<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Player:<\/strong>\u00a0 Michael Pittman<\/a><\/strong> (WR)
\nTeam:\u00a0<\/strong> Indianapolis Colts<\/a>
\nRationale:<\/strong>\u00a0 The Colts have a new quarterback in Philip Rivers<\/a> <\/strong>and a lot of new faces on offense. The 6-foot-4, 223 lb wideout brings a 111.2 (93rd percentile) Speed Score coupled with a 10.24 (89th percentile) Catch Radius. These are essential workout metrics when your quarterback is 38-years old with declining arm strength. Pittman is already listed as a starter opposite T.Y. Hilton<\/a> <\/strong>and his early second-round draft capital should solidify his early-season opportunities. Head coach Frank Reich<\/a><\/strong> believes Pittman could be the best receiver in the 2020 NFL Draft:<\/p>\n

Lead wide receiver T.Y. Hilton is now on the wrong side of 30-years old and has missed eight games the past two seasons with injuries. Former tight end Eric Ebron<\/a><\/strong> is now with the Pittsburgh Steelers<\/a> vacating 4.7 targets per game, and both Parris Campbell<\/a><\/strong> (24 receptions) and Zach Pascal<\/a> <\/strong>provide minimal obstacles to a Pittman ascension. Indianapolis is clearly a run-first team as evidenced by the fifth-lowest passing percentage (53.6%) of all NFL teams in 2019. However, if Pittman does ascend to the WR2 role, his opportunities will be large enough to make a significant redraft fantasy football impact.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Player:<\/strong>\u00a0 Darius Slayton<\/a><\/strong> (WR)
\nTeam:\u00a0<\/strong> New York Giants<\/a>
\nRationale:\u00a0<\/strong>The Giants poor defense should provide ample fantasy opportunities for all offensive players. Quarterback Daniel Jones<\/a><\/strong> showed instant chemistry with fellow rookie wide receiver Darius Slayton. On just a 79.4% Snap Share, the speedy wideout finished Top 20 among all wideouts in Deep Targets, Yards Per Reception, and Fantasy Points Per Target. His 10.32 (95th percentile) Catch Radius and 87th percentile hand size make him a consistent field stretcher the Giants offense.<\/p>\n

Darius Slayton produced three Top 12 WR fantasy performances including the overall WR2 and WR3 performances in Weeks 10 (New York Jets<\/a>) and 14 (at Philadelphia Eagles<\/a>) respectively. In many ways, Slayton’s contributions were overshadowed by other rookies, suppressing his current ADP.<\/p>\n

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Four of the top 5 rookie wide receivers by receiving yards in 2019 finished with a 95+ Athleticism Score: Terry McLaurin, D.K. Metcalf, Deebo Samuel and Darius Slayton.<\/p>\n

Titans WR A.J. Brown (93 Production Score) was the only one to finish with an Athleticism Score below 95. pic.twitter.com\/AUyQ8yAgwX<\/a><\/p>\n

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) February 28, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n