NFL Sunday is right around the corner, which means DFS players everywhere are setting their GPP and cash lineups hoping to make some quick coin. Building a cost-effective lineup is no easy task, and there\u2019s a lot of luck that goes into a winning lineup. However, using available data allows us to play the odds and increase the probability of success. Heading into Week 7, these are the best DFS wide receiver values on the market.<\/p>\n
Note that I\u2019ve determined these players by creating a model that combines the best of Josh Hermsmeyer<\/strong>\u2019s Air Yards Data<\/a>, Pro Football Reference\u2019s red zone usage, and Football Outsiders\u2019 DVOA. Ultimately, I\u2019ve come up with four different projections: non-adjusted PPR, DVOA adjusted PPR, non-adjusted regression, and DVOA adjusted regression. All prices listed are based on DraftKings pricing for classic tournament play.<\/p>\n Los Angeles Rams<\/a> wide receiver Cooper Kupp<\/a><\/strong> is a must-start in every single lineup. The wide receiver is priced at $7400, good for the fifth-highest among wide receivers. You need to insert a star into your lineup if you\u2019re to have any chance of bringing home a big prize, and Kupp is the easily the best star player available.<\/p>\n Per my non-adjusted PPR, projection, Kupp is my WR1 with an expected 20.9 fantasy points. Even with his high price tag, Kupp\u2019s 0.0028 fantasy points per dollar are the best in my model. This projection is primarily based on air yards, and Hermsmeyer believes that defenses have a minimal impact on a wide receiver\u2019s impact. When you adjust for defense using Football Outsiders\u2019 DVOA, Kupp is still the WR1 with a projected 23.7 points.<\/p>\n Let\u2019s go one step further and look at projected regression. Kupp has been more efficient than one would expect, so you could argue that he\u2019s due to come back to Earth. However, even when you take regression into account, Kupp is still the WR1 with and without defensive adjustments. Kupp is poised for a fantastic week and should be a top-five receiver at the very least.<\/p>\n Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams<\/a><\/strong> is long overdue for a breakout performance. The Chargers are trying to get him the ball, but he hasn\u2019t been able to answer the call as of yet. Williams only has 303 receiving yards, but he also has an impressive 608 air yards. This 305-yard difference is the largest in the league, which means that Williams is long overdue for a huge game. Additionally, Williams has yet to record a red zone touchdown on his seven targets. Just like the air yards discrepancy, this is also completely unsustainable moving forward. He\u2019s going to have a huge bounce-back game just like Will Fuller<\/a><\/strong> did a few weeks ago.<\/p>\n Williams should have a solid day even if he doesn\u2019t have a breakout performance. Based on his usage to date, I have him as the WR11 in non-adjusted PPR and WR20 in DVOA adjusted PPR. However, if he breaks out, he can singlehandedly win you a ton of cash. Right now, Williams is my WR2 in the non-adjusted regression model and the WR5 in the DVOA-adjusted regression model. For just $4600 dollars, you can\u2019t afford to not have him in at least a few of your lineups.<\/p>\n If you believe that defenses play a large part in a receiver’s production, then you need to put Cole Beasley<\/a><\/strong> into your lineup. Personally, I\u2019m generally of the opinion that a defenses\u2019 impact on a receiver\u2019s production is overrated by the vast majority of fantasy players. However, that opinion goes out the window against the Miami Dolphins. Miami is one of the few teams in the league where you need to start as many opposing players as possible, just based on the favorable matchup. Cole Beasley is cheaper than John Brown<\/a><\/strong>, and he should have a better day in DraftKings scoring.<\/p>\n The Dolphins simply cannot stop anyone through the air and are one of the least efficient passing defenses in the league. Beasley is currently averaging a solid 7.8 targets per game, and that number should increase in Week 7. Josh Allen<\/a><\/strong> has been surprisingly effective in the short part of the field, and Beasley has been slightly less effective than a league-average receiver up to this point in the season. He\u2019s due for a breakout, and he\u2019s playing the worst defense in football. At $4700, he\u2019s an absolute steal.<\/p>\n As of this posting, nobody knows whether or not Christian Kirk<\/a><\/strong> is going to suit up in Week 7. Head coach Kliff Kingsbury<\/a><\/strong> said he won\u2019t start Kirk until he\u2019s 100%, and there\u2019s a very real chance he makes his return against the New York Giants. If he does, he\u2019s a must-play. Based on usage prior to his injury, I have Kirk projected as the WR9 in non-adjusted and the WR6 in DVOA-adjusted formats. He\u2019s actually been less efficient than expected, so he\u2019s due to regress to league-average efficiency. Additionally, Kyler Murray<\/a><\/strong> has improved since Kirk\u2019s initial injury, which will only help Kirk receive more opportunities in the passing game.<\/p>\n If Kirk can\u2019t suit up, KeeSean Johnson<\/a><\/strong> is a good high-ceiling play with a low projected ownership. When factoring in DVOA, I have KeeSean Johnson at the top of my list of players overdue for a breakout. With Kirk on the sidelines, the Cardinals have been trying to make KeeSean Johnson a viable part of the offense. It hasn\u2019t worked so far, but that opportunity should remain as long as Kirk cannot play. Putting Johnson in your lineup allows you use your salary cap space on a true star at another position while still allowing the possibility of a huge game.<\/p>\n Main photo:Fantasy Football Week 7 \u2013 Best DFS Wide Receiver Plays<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Superstar \u2013 Cooper Kupp<\/h3>\n
DFS Wide Receiver Sleeper Plays<\/h2>\n
Mike Williams<\/h3>\n
Cole Beasley<\/h3>\n
Christian Kirk OR KeeSean Johnson<\/h3>\n
\nEmbed from Getty Images<\/a>