{"id":74909,"date":"2019-10-18T06:46:11","date_gmt":"2019-10-18T10:46:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonprofootball.com\/?p=74909"},"modified":"2019-10-18T16:53:17","modified_gmt":"2019-10-18T20:53:17","slug":"latavius-murray-fantasy-football-outlook-without-alvin-kamara","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/2019\/10\/18\/latavius-murray-fantasy-football-outlook-without-alvin-kamara\/","title":{"rendered":"Latavius Murray Fantasy Football Outlook Without Alvin Kamara"},"content":{"rendered":"

Alvin Kamara<\/a><\/strong> reportedly has a high ankle sprain<\/a>, creating a path for Latavius Murray<\/a><\/strong> to have fantasy football relevance. Kamara is one of the best running backs in the league, and Murray won\u2019t be able to completely replicate his production. However, history shows that anyone taking carries for the Saints<\/a> is going to have some sort of fantasy relevance. Let\u2019s break down what to expect from Murray in the upcoming week.<\/p>\n

Update: Alvin Kamara is OUT for Week 7’s matchup against the Chicago Bears.<\/em><\/p>\n

Fantasy Football: Latavius Murray Outlook Without Alvin Kamara<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Latavius Murray Himself<\/h3>\n

With Kamara out, Latavius Murray should have complete control of the backfield. Outside of Murray, the only other running backs on the roster are Dwayne Washington<\/a><\/strong> and the newly-signed Zach Zenner<\/a><\/strong>. As far as projections go, it\u2019s hard to imagine either player dramatically eating into Murray\u2019s workload. For the time being, this is very much Murray\u2019s show.<\/p>\n

Historically, talent doesn\u2019t matter when it comes to being the Saints running back. Sean Payton<\/a><\/strong> is one of the best offensive minds in the league and excels at scheming wide-open targets to running backs. Additionally, New Orleans has one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in the league and can create wide-open running lanes on a consistent basis.<\/p>\n

However, Murray\u2019s ceiling is limited with Drew Brees<\/a><\/strong> sidelined. Part of the reason the Saints running back has been such a valuable fantasy commodity is that Drew Brees creates an efficient, high-powered offense which leads to tons of scoring opportunities. Teddy Bridgewater<\/a><\/strong>, unsurprisingly, hasn\u2019t been able to replicate that type of success since earning the starting spot. Alvin Kamara, normally a top-three running back, has only been the RB7 since Week 3. This is obviously still very good, but Kamara hasn\u2019t been the same without Brees.<\/p>\n

You can expect a similar result out of Murray. Murray\u2019s lack of talent relative to Kamara naturally drops him down the projected rankings, but Brees\u2019 absence only further limits his ceiling. Before you take the matchup into account, Murray is probably a fringe-RB1\/RB2. However, you need to consider the matchup, and Murray faces a bad one in Week 7.<\/p>\n

The Matchup<\/h3>\n

Latavius Murray and the New Orleans Saints face the unenviable task of going up against the Chicago Bears defense. Chicago\u2019s defense, while not quite as good as 2018, is still one of the best all-around units in the league. Josh Jacobs<\/a><\/strong> found some success on the ground last week, but that\u2019s probably a one-week outlier performance. This defense is still legit, and it\u2019s going to make running the ball a difficult task.<\/p>\n

Through six weeks of action, Chicago actually ranks a surprising 15th<\/sup> in fantasy points allowed to the running back position. This bodes well for Murray, although it should be noted that fantasy points per game isn\u2019t adjusted to level of competition. For this reason, it\u2019s better to use a stat like DVOA to get a better understanding of how a defense performs relative to the expected competition.<\/p>\n

According to Football Outsiders, Chicago has the eighth-best run defense and sixth-best passing defense in the NFL. This is still one of the elite units in the league, and this projects as a low-scoring affair. Murray\u2019s going to have a full workload, but he won\u2019t move the ball that efficiently or receive many scoring opportunities. You can still start Murray and expect low-end RB2 production, but don\u2019t expect him to put together a league-winning performance.<\/p>\n

Main photo:
\nEmbed from Getty Images<\/a>