{"id":73542,"date":"2019-09-23T07:03:06","date_gmt":"2019-09-23T11:03:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonprofootball.com\/?p=73542"},"modified":"2024-04-25T11:26:17","modified_gmt":"2024-04-25T15:26:17","slug":"nfl-week-4-spreads-betting-lines-game-picks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/2019\/09\/23\/nfl-week-4-spreads-betting-lines-game-picks\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Week 4 Spreads, Betting Lines, and Game Picks"},"content":{"rendered":"

Three weeks of NFL action are in the books, and Vegas just released<\/a> their NFL Week 4 spreads. Let’s take a dive into each matchup, break down the games, and decide which side to bet on.<\/p>\n

NFL Week 4 Spreads, Game Picks, Betting Lines<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Green Bay Packers (-4.5) vs Philadelphia Eagles<\/h3>\n

Aaron Rodgers<\/a><\/strong> still doesn\u2019t look like his old self, but he doesn\u2019t need to be a superhero with this impressive defense by his side. Jaire Alexander<\/a><\/strong> has taken a huge step, and just about every offseason addition has worked out through this point in the season. Through three games, the Packers defense is allowing just 11.7 points per game. That number might go up against the Eagles, but there\u2019s no denying that this defense has been fantastic.<\/p>\n

The Philadelphia Eagles<\/a>, meanwhile, are one of the most injured teams in the league. A Thursday Night game gives Philadelphia less time to recover and get healthy, and they won\u2019t be anywhere close to full strength in Week 4. Carson Wentz<\/a><\/strong> can\u2019t do it alone, and the overmatched secondary won\u2019t stand much of a chance against Davante Adams<\/a><\/strong> and a steadily improving Marquez Valdes-Scantling<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Pick: Packer win, beat spread<\/strong><\/p>\n

Houston Texans (-4) at Carolina Panthers<\/h3>\n

Deshaun Watson<\/a><\/strong> and DeAndre Hopkins<\/a><\/strong> are great, but the rest of the Houston Texans team leaves a lot to be desired. The defense doesn\u2019t have any playmakers outside of J.J. Watt<\/a><\/strong> and Laremy Tunsil<\/a><\/strong> isn\u2019t enough to fix a terrible offensive line. The biggest reason for this four-point spread is likely due to Kyle Allen<\/a><\/strong>. Allen had a fantastic game in Week 3, but Vegas appears to believe it was a one-game fluke.<\/p>\n

While Allen won’t throw four touchdowns every week, he\u2019s still going to be a good quarterback. Allen performed well in the 2018 season finale and the preseason, so it\u2019s not like last week\u2019s actions came out of nowhere. Kyle Allen is good, and he has what it takes to topple this defense.<\/p>\n

Pick: Panthers win, beat spread<\/strong><\/p>\n

Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) vs Cleveland Browns<\/h3>\n

Lamar Jackson<\/a><\/strong> came back to Earth against the Kansas City Chiefs, but he\u2019s still had a solid game and almost rallied his team to an unexpected victory. Even if he can\u2019t recapture his elite play from the first two weeks of the season, he\u2019s good enough to lead his team to a comfortable victory in Week 4.<\/p>\n

The Baltimore Ravens have the talent necessary to take care of the Browns on both sides of the ball. Baker Mayfield<\/a><\/strong> doesn\u2019t look right in this offense and clearly doesn\u2019t trust his offensive line. The defense isn\u2019t playing anywhere close to its\u2019 potential, and they probably won\u2019t find their form against a good Ravens defense. Cleveland\u2019s secondary is banged up and is going to have a tough time stopping Marquise Brown<\/a><\/strong> and Baltimore\u2019s aerial attack.<\/p>\n

Pick: Ravens win, beat spread<\/strong><\/p>\n

New York Giants (-3) vs Washington Redskins<\/h3>\n

Daniel Jones<\/a><\/strong> had one hell of a debut against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, building on a strong preseason to lead an 18-point comeback win. Even with Saquon Barkley<\/a><\/strong> sidelined, this offense looks better than it has in quite some time. Jones impressed during the preseason and should be able to move the ball against this subpar unit.<\/p>\n

Case Keenum<\/a><\/strong>, meanwhile, has been one of the luckiest quarterbacks in the league. According to Pro Football Focus, Keenum has the largest split in actual versus expected turnovers. This offense isn\u2019t as good as it\u2019s looked through the first two weeks of the season and is due for some regression. The Giants defense is atrocious, but they should be able to slow down Washington\u2019s subpar passing attack.<\/p>\n

Pick: Giants win, beat spread<\/strong><\/p>\n

Miami Dolphins vs Los Angeles Chargers (-17)<\/h3>\n

Let\u2019s not waste too much time on this one: the Miami Dolphins are atrocious and no spread is too big for this team.<\/p>\n

Pick: Chargers win, beat spread<\/strong><\/p>\n

Indianapolis Colts (-7) vs Oakland Raiders<\/h3>\n

Losing Andrew Luck<\/a> <\/strong>to retirement made a lot of people forget that this is one of the most complete rosters in the league. Obviously, Jacoby Brissett<\/a><\/strong> is no Andrew Luck, but the former third-round pick is proving that he\u2019s a starting-caliber quarterback. Head coach Frank Reich<\/a><\/strong> is one of the NFL\u2019s best offensive minds and Brissett is getting more and more comfortable with each and every week.<\/p>\n

The Oakland Raiders, meanwhile, are not making a second-year leap under Jon Gruden<\/strong>. Derek Carr<\/a><\/strong> can\u2019t find his 2016 form, Tyrell Williams<\/a><\/strong> isn\u2019t a true WR1, and the defense still allows yards and points by the wayside. Outside of Darren Waller<\/a><\/strong>, this team doesn’t have many weapons on either side of the ball.<\/p>\n

Pick: Colts win, beat spread<\/strong><\/p>\n

Detroit Lions vs Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)<\/h3>\n

The Lions are having a solid season through three weeks, but they\u2019re not capable of keeping up with Patrick Mahomes<\/a><\/strong> and the Kansas City Chiefs. Even without Tyreek Hill<\/a><\/strong>, Mahomes has overcome regression and proved that he can sustain his 2018 production. Only the truly elite teams stand a chance of going blow-for-blow with Mahomes, and the Lions aren\u2019t elite.<\/p>\n

Pick: Chiefs win, beat spread<\/strong><\/p>\n

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots (-7)<\/h3>\n

The Buffalo Bills enter Week 4 with a surprising 3-0 record and are looking to upset their longtime division rivals. The 2019 New England Patriots haven\u2019t faced off against the strongest opponents, but it looks like they\u2019re playing a different game than their competition. The defense has yet to allow a touchdown and Tom Brady<\/a><\/strong> is playing better at age 42 than he did at age 41. If this team can stay relatively healthy, this might just be New England\u2019s best roster in years.<\/p>\n

That said, the Patriots aren\u2019t healthy. Julian Edelman<\/a><\/strong> suffered a rib injury in Week 3 and might not play against Buffalo. Even if he does suit up, he won\u2019t be at full strength. Edelman is the key to New England\u2019s passing attack, and Buffalo\u2019s defense is no joke. The Bills will keep it close, but they\u2019re not quite ready to take down the Patriots.<\/p>\n

Pick: Patriots win, don\u2019t cover spread<\/strong><\/p>\n

Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) vs Tennessee Titans<\/h3>\n

Matt Ryan<\/a><\/strong> hasn\u2019t looked right all year and Atlanta\u2019s defense isn\u2019t playing up to their potential. That said, Ryan had his best game in Week 3 and it doesn\u2019t take the 1985 Bears to stop the Tennessee Titans. Marcus Mariota<\/a><\/strong> is playing like a bottom-10 quarterback and doesn\u2019t look capable of playing up to his draft stock. Trying to run an offense through a one-dimensional back like Derrick Henry<\/a><\/strong> in today\u2019s NFL is a strange decision, and the defense isn\u2019t good enough to make up for the offensive ineptitude.<\/p>\n

Pick: Falcons win<\/strong>, beat spread<\/strong><\/p>\n

Los Angeles Rams (-9.5) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers<\/h3>\n

The Los Angeles Rams are considerably better than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but it\u2019s hard to take the points on a spread this large. The Rams offense hasn\u2019t looked right in quite some time, even with Cooper Kupp<\/a><\/strong> playing like he never tore his ACL. The league has figured out how to slow down Sean McVay<\/strong>\u2019s offense, although the NFL isn\u2019t quite capable of stopping it yet. Jameis Winston<\/a><\/strong> isn\u2019t a good quarterback, but he\u2019s capable of putting up points and racking up yards. A garbage-time score could easily ruin the spread for everyone.<\/p>\n

Pick: Rams win, don\u2019t beat spread<\/strong><\/p>\n

Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks (-4)<\/h3>\n

The Seattle Seahawks are wasting Russell Wilson<\/a><\/strong>. Instead of running their offense through one of the best quarterbacks in the league, Seattle runs the ball at a ridiculous rate and tries to use Chris Carson<\/a><\/strong> like Marshawn Lynch<\/a><\/strong>. The Cardinals aren\u2019t a great team by any means, but Kyler Murray<\/a><\/strong> and Kliff Kingsbury<\/a><\/strong> have made the team considerably better than 2018\u2019s unit. Even if you think the talent disparity is too large in this matchup, Seattle\u2019s style of play naturally lends itself to low-scoring affairs and close games.<\/p>\n

Pick: Cardinals win, beat spread<\/strong><\/p>\n

Chicago Bears (-2.5) vs Minnesota Vikings<\/h3>\n

This one is going to be hard to watch. The Chicago Bears have a championship-caliber roster but have one of the worst quarterbacks in the league captaining the ship. Head coach Matt Nagy<\/strong> clearly doesn\u2019t trust his quarterback, and with good reason. That said, the Minnesota Vikings have adopted a run-first philosophy, and Kirk Cousins<\/a> <\/strong>is worse off for it. Facing off against this defense won\u2019t be easy, and the Bears should be able to pull off a narrow victory.<\/p>\n

Pick: Bears win, beat spread<\/strong><\/p>\n

Denver Broncos (-3) vs Jacksonville Jaguars<\/h3>\n

I don\u2019t know how Vegas came up with this one. The Denver Broncos are one of the worst all-around teams in the league. Joe Flacco<\/a><\/strong> is playing at a 2018 Case Keenum level, the running game can\u2019t get going, and the defense isn\u2019t playing up to the sum of its\u2019 parts. The Jacksonville Jaguars, meanwhile, still have a top defense and Gardner Minshew<\/a><\/strong> looks better and better with every passing week. This is a no-brainer.<\/p>\n

Pick: Jaguars win, beat spread<\/strong><\/p>\n

New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys (-3)<\/h3>\n

The Saints may have beat the Seattle Seahawks in Week 3, but nothing about that victory was sustainable. The Saints had a punt return touchdown, a short-yardage drive from a fumble, and a touchdown drive extended by a defensive penalty. Overall, Teddy Bridgewater<\/a><\/strong> still looked uncomfortable and didn\u2019t do much to impress. The Cowboys are considerably better than the Saints sans Drew Brees<\/a><\/strong> and should cruise to victory.<\/p>\n

Pick: Cowboys win, beat spread<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5) vs Cincinnati Bengals<\/h3>\n

Does Vegas know Ben Roethlisberger<\/a><\/strong> isn\u2019t playing in this one? Mason Rudolph<\/a><\/strong> did not look good in his first career start, outside of one or two throws. The defense, offensive line, and wide receivers are fine, but they can’t carry the inexperienced Rudolph. The Bengals, meanwhile, should be able to take advantage of Rudolph\u2019s inexperience and pull off the upset. Even if they can\u2019t win, they should keep it close.<\/p>\n

Pick: Bengals win, cover spread<\/strong><\/p>\n

Main photo:
\nEmbed from Getty Images<\/a>