{"id":71846,"date":"2019-08-31T12:17:59","date_gmt":"2019-08-31T16:17:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonprofootball.com\/?p=71846"},"modified":"2021-03-12T17:42:49","modified_gmt":"2021-03-12T22:42:49","slug":"new-england-patriots-second-round-draft-picks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/2019\/08\/31\/new-england-patriots-second-round-draft-picks\/","title":{"rendered":"Looking Back on New England Patriots Second Round Draft Picks"},"content":{"rendered":"

Unfair or not, Bill Belichick<\/b> and the New England Patriots<\/a> have a reputation for struggling with their second round draft picks. On Friday, New England parted ways with Duke Dawson<\/strong> before he ever played a regular season snap. The Patriots have their fair share of second round draft misses, but are they really worse than the league average? Let\u2019s take a dive and see what the numbers tell us.<\/p>\n

New England Patriots Second Round Draft History<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Hit\/Miss Rate<\/h3>\n

The New England Patriots second dynasty unofficially began in 2010, so let\u2019s start with draft class. Since the turn of the decade, New England has drafted Rob Gronkowski<\/a>, Jamie Collins<\/a>, Brandon Spikes<\/a>, Shane Vereen<\/a>, Jermaine Cunningham<\/a>, Aaron Dobson<\/a>, Jordan Richards<\/a>, Tavon Wilson<\/a>, Jimmy Garoppolo<\/a>, Ras-I Dowling<\/a>, Cyrus Jones<\/a><\/b>, and the aforementioned Dawson in the second round. Three of those picks, Gronkowski, Collins, and Vereen, were everything the Patriots could have hoped for. Spikes was unspectacular but still worth the second-round selection, while Garoppolo was a great pick who never had the chance to start.<\/p>\n

Overall, the Patriots hit on five of their 12 selections, including a franchise-altering pick in Gronkowski. This isn\u2019t perfect by any means, but it compares well to league-wide hit rate. Back in 2015, SB Nation\u2019s Arrowhead Pride<\/i> ran a study<\/a> determining the average draft hit rate by position and round.<\/p>\n

According to Arrowhead Pride<\/i>\u2019s calculations, the Patriots should have found 5.0 starters based on the draft capital invested. This is exactly what they got if you count Garoppolo, so this implies the Patriots are getting the success you\u2019d expect out of their draft picks. However, it is worth pointing out that there are a few flaws in this study.<\/p>\n

For one, the analysis only breaks down if a player is a \u201chit\u201d or a miss, and doesn\u2019t actually reflect how good those hits were. Rob Gronkowski obviously brought more value to the Patriots than Brandon Spikes, yet they\u2019re both counted the same using this system. Additionally, Arrowhead Pride defines a hit as a player who started in at least half of their career games. This also isn\u2019t perfect, as Bill Belichick<\/b> is notorious for rotating players on and off of the field. Case in point: Shane Vereen didn\u2019t start in Super Bowl 49, but he was one of biggest contributors to New England\u2019s 10-point comeback.<\/p>\n

Using Approximate Value<\/h3>\n

Fortunately, there is a better way to assess Belichick\u2019s second-round drafting ability. Pro Football Reference created a statistic called Approximate Value, which tries to put a numerical value on a player’s performance.<\/p>\n

Since 2010, 280 second-round players have combined to play 14,445 games and provided 5,206 points in Approximate Value. This means that the average second-round pick is expected to contribute .36 points of Approximate Value on a per-game basis.<\/p>\n

Since 2010, New England’s second round draft picks have played a combined 400 games with the Patriots while compiling 180 points in Approximate Value. This means that, on a per-game basis, the Patriots got 0.45 points of Approximate Value from their second-round picks. Even if you remove Gronkowski from the equation, you\u2019d still get .34 AV\/game, which is a negligible difference from the league average rate.<\/p>\n

No matter what the narratives say, Bill Belichick actually knows what he\u2019s doing. The Patriots hit on exactly as many second-round picks as they should, and those second-round picks play better than the average second-round pick. This doesn\u2019t even take into account that the Patriots typically pick at the end of the second round since they win so often. They have worse draft capital than just about anyone else and still manage to get good value for their picks.<\/p>\n

Belichick has his fair share of misses, but so does everyone else. The NFL Draft is an inexact science and it\u2019s impossible to get every pick right. Even with the misfires, Bill Belichick still remains one of the best talent evaluators in the league.<\/p>\n

Main photo:
\nEmbed from Getty Images<\/a>