{"id":71072,"date":"2019-08-20T08:00:59","date_gmt":"2019-08-20T12:00:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonprofootball.com\/?p=71072"},"modified":"2019-08-20T06:04:42","modified_gmt":"2019-08-20T10:04:42","slug":"fantasy-football-running-back-rankings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/2019\/08\/20\/fantasy-football-running-back-rankings\/","title":{"rendered":"Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings"},"content":{"rendered":"

For the last two months, I have been working through NFL data from 2002-2018 with the goal of coming up with a fantasy football equivalent for \u201cWins Above Replacement\u201d. I, unfortunately, was not able to come up with that in time for this season, but I was able to come up with an expected \u201cPoints Above Replacement\u201d (PAR) statistic. This statistic is exactly as sounds, the number is the expected number of points, per week, that a player is expected to score over a replacement-level player. From the PAR statistic, I have created my fantasy football running back rankings heading into this season.<\/p>\n

Running backs are widely considered to be the most shallow of position groups for fantasy football. Based on the data for the past seventeen seasons, a replacement-level running back is expected to score 8.78 points per week. All PAR values are based on this replacement value.<\/p>\n

Fantasy Football Draft Headquarters<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings<\/h2>\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<\/colgroup>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Rank<\/strong><\/td>\nPlayer<\/strong><\/td>\nPAR<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1<\/td>\nSaquon Barkley<\/td>\n8.98<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nChristian McCaffrey<\/td>\n7.76<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nDavid Johnson<\/td>\n7.33<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\nAlvin Kamara<\/td>\n7.21<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\nEzekiel Elliott<\/td>\n6.90<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>\nLe’Veon Bell<\/td>\n6.34<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>\nJoe Mixon<\/td>\n5.94<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>\nNick Chubb<\/td>\n5.89<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9<\/td>\nJames Conner<\/td>\n5.50<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10<\/td>\nTodd Gurley<\/td>\n5.31<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
11<\/td>\nDalvin Cook<\/td>\n5.03<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
12<\/td>\nKerryon Johnson<\/td>\n4.48<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
13<\/td>\nAaron Jones<\/td>\n4.16<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
14<\/td>\nJosh Jacobs<\/td>\n3.73<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15<\/td>\nMelvin Gordon<\/td>\n3.51<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
16<\/td>\nChris Carson<\/td>\n3.33<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
17<\/td>\nDamien Williams<\/td>\n2.84<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
18<\/td>\nLeonard Fournette<\/td>\n2.69<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
19<\/td>\nSony Michel<\/td>\n2.59<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20<\/td>\nJames White<\/td>\n2.36<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
21<\/td>\nDevonta Freeman<\/td>\n2.28<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
22<\/td>\nDerrick Henry<\/td>\n2.01<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
23<\/td>\nLamar Miller<\/td>\n1.73<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
24<\/td>\nTevin Coleman<\/td>\n1.58<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
25<\/td>\nMarlon Mack<\/td>\n1.26<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
26<\/td>\nMark Ingram<\/td>\n1.04<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
27<\/td>\nDerrius Guice<\/td>\n0.91<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
28<\/td>\nDavid Montgomery<\/td>\n0.62<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
29<\/td>\nPhillip Lindsay<\/td>\n0.42<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
30<\/td>\nMiles Sanders<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
31<\/td>\nAustin Ekeler<\/td>\n-0.42<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
32<\/td>\nKalen Ballage<\/td>\n-0.76<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
33<\/td>\nRoyce Freeman<\/td>\n-1.14<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
34<\/td>\nJordan Howard<\/td>\n-1.55<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
35<\/td>\nTarik Cohen<\/td>\n-1.83<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
36<\/td>\nLatavius Murray<\/td>\n-2.30<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
37<\/td>\nLeSean McCoy<\/td>\n-2.40<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
38<\/td>\nNyheim Hines<\/td>\n-2.73<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
39<\/td>\nDuke Johnson Jr.<\/td>\n-3.02<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
40<\/td>\nJaylen Samuels<\/td>\n-3.18<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
41<\/td>\nKenyan Drake<\/td>\n-3.55<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
42<\/td>\nAdrian Peterson<\/td>\n-3.83<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
43<\/td>\nMalcolm Brown<\/td>\n-3.99<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
44<\/td>\nChris Thompson<\/td>\n-4.35<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
45<\/td>\nMike Davis<\/td>\n-4.59<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
46<\/td>\nIto Smith<\/td>\n-4.86<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
47<\/td>\nKareem Hunt<\/td>\n-5.02<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
48<\/td>\nJustin Jackson<\/td>\n-5.42<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
49<\/td>\nJustice Hill<\/td>\n-5.64<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
50<\/td>\nJamaal Williams<\/td>\n-5.80<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Key Findings<\/h2>\n

The difference between the top tier running backs and replacement level running backs is astronomical. So much so that Saquon Barkley<\/a><\/strong> is projected to score over twice as much as a replacement-level running back next season. From there, Christian McCaffrey<\/a><\/strong>, Alvin Kamara<\/a>,<\/strong> and David Johnson<\/a><\/strong> are next in line looking to put up tremendous seasons.<\/p>\n

Potential hold-outs are starting to become a concern. There are still two and a half weeks before the season, but Ezekiel Elliott<\/a><\/strong> and Melvin Gordon<\/a><\/strong> are both players to keep an eye on as they push for new contracts. There have reportedly been no substantial contract discussions<\/a> between Melvin Gordon<\/a> and the Los Angeles Chargers. Elliott, however, seems to be a little closer to a deal with the Dallas Cowboys. That was until owner Jerry Jones<\/a> made the comment “Zeke who?”<\/a> when asked about the contract situation. Both of these hold outs have dropped them in the rankings.<\/p>\n

The current running back situations to avoid appears to be the Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, and Miami Dolphins. None of these teams have a clear cut lead back at this point. For Philadelphia, both Miles Sanders<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0and Jordan Howard<\/a><\/strong> are expected to be fantasy relevant as they are part of one of the best offenses in the league. Miami and Buffalo don’t have the same expectations.<\/p>\n

Fantasy Football Draft Headquarters<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Main photo:
\nEmbed from Getty Images<\/a>