{"id":69634,"date":"2019-08-03T11:24:19","date_gmt":"2019-08-03T15:24:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lwosonnfl.ms.lastwordonsports.com\/?p=69634"},"modified":"2019-08-03T11:24:19","modified_gmt":"2019-08-03T15:24:19","slug":"dallas-cowboys-should-trade-ezekiel-elliott","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/2019\/08\/03\/dallas-cowboys-should-trade-ezekiel-elliott\/","title":{"rendered":"Dallas Cowboys Should Trade Ezekiel Elliott"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/lwosonnfl.ms.lastwordonsports.com\/nfl-teams\/cowboys\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Dallas Cowboys<\/a> have a serious problem on their hands. Star running back <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/E\/ElliEz00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Ezekiel Elliott<\/a><\/strong> is holding out for a new contract and might not return until he gets it. <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/search\/search.fcgi?pid=JoneJe23,JoneJe22&amp;search=Jerry+Jones&amp;utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Jerry Jones<\/a><\/strong> says he could envision the holdout lasting \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/sports\/nfl\/cowboys\/2019\/08\/01\/ezekiel-elliott-jerry-jones-explains-stance-cowboys-rbs-holdout\/1896577001\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">months<\/a>\u201d and doesn\u2019t seem thrilled about paying a running back top dollar. Instead of giving into Elliott\u2019s demands, the Cowboys should trade Elliott for a high pick.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Time For Dallas Cowboys to Trade Ezekiel Elliott<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>First, let\u2019s start by saying that Ezekiel Elliott is easily one of the two or three best running backs in the league. However, that doesn\u2019t mean the Cowboys can\u2019t get 80-90% of the production at a fraction of a cost. Running the ball simply doesn\u2019t matter as much in 2019 as it did back in 1994, so investing a high percentage of the cap in an inefficient style of play simply isn\u2019t smart team building.<\/p>\n<p>The fact of the matter is that running backs don\u2019t matter in today\u2019s NFL, even the generational ones. Rushing production has more to do with playcalling and offensive line play than it does the actual running back. <strong>James Connor\u00a0<\/strong>seamlessly filled in for\u00a0<strong>Le&#8217;Veon Bell<\/strong>,\u00a0<strong>C.J. Anderson<\/strong> replaced\u00a0<strong>Todd Gurley<\/strong>, and\u00a0<strong>Damien Williams<\/strong> replaced\u00a0<strong>Kareem Hunt<\/strong>. These aren&#8217;t isolated instances, as this sort of thing happens all the time.<\/p>\n<p>Nobody would argue that\u00a0<strong>Demarco Murray<\/strong> is more talented than Ezekiel Elliott, but they had almost the same production when utilized in the same role. Some may think that Murray&#8217;s success was due to\u00a0<strong>Tony Romo<\/strong>, while Elliott is carrying a weaker quarterback in Dak Prescott. This brings up to point two:<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/DLPatsThoughts\/status\/1156544094602240001?s=20<\/p>\n<h3>The Run Game Doesn&#8217;t Affect the Pass Game<\/h3>\n<p>Modern-day analytics are laying waste to older, outdated narrative throughout the league. For the longest time, most believed that running the ball well created a positive impact on the passing game. However, there is no evidence to support that claim.<\/p>\n<p>Supporters of paying Elliott claim that Elliott\u2019s presence brings extra defenders into the box, which in turn creates more throwing lanes. However, <a href=\"https:\/\/ftw.usatoday.com\/2019\/07\/ezekiel-elliott-value-cowboys-dak-prescott\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">studies show<\/a> that defensive formation has a significantly larger impact on box count than the running back. Elliott faced stacked boxes at essentially the same rate as other Cowboys\u2019 backs, and there is no correlation between stacked box percentage and running back ability. Additionally, rushing success and volume has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.footballoutsiders.com\/stat-analysis\/2018\/rushing-success-and-play-action-passing\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">no measurable effect<\/a> on play-action passing.<\/p>\n<p>Some Elliott defenders believe that his pass-catching acumen makes him worthy of a large contract. While he more targets in 2018, that\u2019s not necessarily a good thing for an offense. Running back targets are inherently less valuable than targets to wide receivers and tight ends, and only the truly elite pass-catchers like <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/K\/KamaAl00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Alvin Kamara<\/a><\/strong> are capable of actually being efficient when targeted.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">EPA\/play and success rate on 1st &amp; 2nd down running back targets, by team, 2018<\/p>\n<p>Andy Reid the gawd <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/YquhveDkO8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/YquhveDkO8<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/benbbaldwin\/status\/1144639699295899653?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">June 28, 2019<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Elliott is an above-average pass-catching running back, but he\u2019s not on Kamara\u2019s level. From an efficiency standpoint, Elliott was the Cowboys\u2019 worst receiver on third down and below average on first and second down. This data admittedly isn\u2019t perfect, as it doesn\u2019t take check-downs and throwaways into account. However, it\u2019s still abundantly clear that the passing offense would be better off limiting Elliott&#8217;s role.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">&quot;But what about first and second down, when RB targets are actually good?&quot;<\/p>\n<p>True, but you&#39;re still better off throwing to your wideouts and tight ends in those situations: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/hJ2qeJMmTp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/hJ2qeJMmTp<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Bureau of Human-Bovine Cultural Affairs (@CowboysStats) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CowboysStats\/status\/1157276511679983618?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">August 2, 2019<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h3>Running Backs Have A Short Shelf Life<\/h3>\n<p>Even if you think present-day Elliott is better than the numbers imply, he\u2019s still not worth a second contract. Running backs have a notoriously short shelf life because they play one of the most physically demanding positions in the league. Even though he\u2019s missed seven games, Elliott has recorded a staggering 868 carries throughout his three-year career. Nobody can maintain this ridiculous workload throughout the course of a second contract, so the Cowboys shouldn\u2019t invest top dollar in what\u2019s likely to be a worn-down player.<\/p>\n<p>When looking across the league, it\u2019s hard to find a big-money running back who played up to his contract. <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/G\/GurlTo01.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Todd Gurley<\/a><\/strong> has the biggest cap hit among running backs in 2019, and his downfall has been well-documented. <strong>Le\u2019Veon Bell<\/strong> comes in second, and New York fired the general manager who handed out that deal. <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/search\/search.fcgi?pid=JohnDa08,JohnDa05&amp;search=David+Johnson&amp;utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">David Johnson<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/F\/FreeDe00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Devonta Freeman<\/a>, <\/strong>and <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/M\/McCoLe01.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">LeSean McCoy<\/a><\/strong> round out the top five, and each team probably wishes they didn\u2019t have that contract on the books.<\/p>\n<p>The next five running backs in terms of cap hit are <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/B\/BarkSa00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Saquon Barkley<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/M\/McKiJe00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Jerick McKinnon<\/a><\/strong>, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/F\/FourLe00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Leonard Fournette<\/a><\/strong>, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/M\/MillLa01.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Lamar Miller<\/a><\/strong>, and Elliott himself. Since Barkley, Fournette, and Elliot are on rookie contracts, let\u2019s exclude them from this exercise. McKinnon tore his ACL after signing his contract and San Francisco signed <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/C\/ColeTe01.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Tevin Coleman<\/a><\/strong> to serve as the top back. Miller is the main guy for Houston but isn\u2019t particularly impressive and never played up to his expectations.<\/p>\n<p>For every <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/G\/GoreFr00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Frank Gore<\/a><\/strong>, there\u2019s 100 Demarco Murray\u2019s. The Cowboys made the right move back then by letting him go in free agency. They need to do it again. Simply playing the odds shows that Elliott will probably break down before finishing his second contract.<\/p>\n<h3>Dak Prescott Does Not Need Ezekiel Elliott<\/h3>\n<p>The last false narrative surrounding the Cowboys is that Dak Prescott needs Ezekiel Elliott in order to be successful. In the eyes of many, Prescott simply isn\u2019t a good enough quarterback to get by without an elite running game. Nobody is confusing Prescott with <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/B\/BradTo00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Tom Brady<\/a><\/strong>, but that narrative couldn\u2019t be any more false. Based on past performances, Prescott is more than capable of succeeding without Elliott.<\/p>\n<p>Prescott is essentially the same quarterback regardless of rushing rate or efficiency. Additionally, the 2017 season shows that the Cowboys can still win without Elliott. The Cowboys went 3-1 in the four games in which <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/S\/SmitTy00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Tyron Smith<\/a><\/strong> played and Ezekiel Elliott didn\u2019t. Dallas scored 23.5 points per game in those four games compared to just 22.1 on the season. This is obviously a small sample, but when it aligns with all the other data in the world, you have to assume it\u2019s accurate.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Theory: &quot;The Cowboys have to run the ball well for Dak to have success.&quot;<\/p>\n<p>Fact: Once again, no relationship here. In the Dak-Zeke era, the Cowboys pass efficiency in games has been largely independent from their rush efficiency. This is true whether you use EPA, yards, etc. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/S5HmVx8ldr\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/S5HmVx8ldr<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Bureau of Human-Bovine Cultural Affairs (@CowboysStats) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CowboysStats\/status\/1099778969262612480?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">February 24, 2019<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Even if Prescott can\u2019t succeed long-term without Elliott, the Cowboys owe it to themselves to find out now. If your quarterback can\u2019t succeed without a high-volume rushing attack, then you need to find someone who can. The Cowboys are about to throw over $30 million a year at Prescott, and that obviously hinders the team-building process. Dallas needs to know if they have a guy who is truly worthy of that salary.<\/p>\n<p>The longer the Cowboys hold on to Elliott, the less valuable he becomes. Teams are starting to realize how easy it is to replace running backs, and they\u2019re getting smarter every day. If they trade Elliott now, they could probably get a first-round pick and maybe a little extra. However, if they wait, they might have to settle for a mid-round pick.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Rather than give in to his contract demands, the Dallas Cowboys should trade Ezekiel Elliott while they can still get a top pick for his services.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2376,"featured_media":62887,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[54,19],"tags":[302,49,260,1095,657,258,61,618,889,117,98,831,40,259,132],"class_list":["post-69634","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-editorials","category-cowboys","tag-dak-prescott","tag-dallas-cowboys","tag-david-johnson","tag-demarco-murray","tag-devonta-freeman","tag-ezekiel-elliott","tag-football","tag-jerick-mckinnon","tag-jerry-jones","tag-lamar-miller","tag-leveon-bell","tag-lesean-mccoy","tag-nfl","tag-todd-gurley","tag-tony-romo"],"modified_by":"David Latham, Managing Editor","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69634","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2376"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=69634"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69634\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/62887"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=69634"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=69634"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=69634"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}