{"id":69600,"date":"2019-08-02T21:15:03","date_gmt":"2019-08-03T01:15:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lwosonnfl.ms.lastwordonsports.com\/?p=69600"},"modified":"2019-08-11T22:38:07","modified_gmt":"2019-08-12T02:38:07","slug":"chris-carson-2019-fantasy-football-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/2019\/08\/02\/chris-carson-2019-fantasy-football-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"Chris Carson 2019 Fantasy Football Outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"

Chris Carson<\/a><\/strong> was one of 2018\u2019s biggest breakouts in fantasy football. After an underwhelming rookie season, Carson appeared to be trapped behind first-round pick Rashaad Penny<\/a><\/strong> entering training camp. However, Penny suffered an injury in the preseason, and Carson made the most of the opportunity. Being the featured back in a run-heavy offense is obviously great for fantasy, but can Carson repeat his success in 2019?<\/p>\n

Fantasy Football Draft Headquarters<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

2019 Fantasy Football Outlook: Chris Carson<\/strong><\/h2>\n

2018 Recap<\/h3>\n

Succeeding in the NFL is all about taking advantage of every opportunity, and that\u2019s exactly what Chris Carson did in 2018. After entering training camp as a backup, Carson ended up recording 1,157 rushing yards and nine touchdowns on 247 carries. Additionally, he also added another 20 receptions for 163 yards on 24 targets. This impressive season made him the RB15 in half-point scoring formats, but he also missed two games to injury. When factoring in missed time, Carson\u2019s 13.7 points-per-game was tied for the 12th<\/sup>-best mark in the league among running backs.<\/p>\n

From a consistency standpoint, Carson was everything you could\u2019ve asked for as a fantasy owner. The second-year pro didn\u2019t take command of the backfield until Week Three, but once he did he was an absolute stud. Carson recorded 14 or more carries in 11 of his final 12 games, including five games where he had over 20 carries. He also had eight games with a touchdown and nine games with over 69 yards, including six 100-yard performances. He only had one \u201cbust\u201d performance over his final 12 games, which is remarkable consistency from the running back position.<\/p>\n

Despite his high workload and predictable playcalling, Carson still managed to be one of the more efficient running backs in fantasy. According to Sharp Football Stats, Carson had a 49.6% success rate on his carries, 2.1% above the league average. By comparison, Rashaad Penny had a below-average 40.4% success rate. Despite the drastic difference in draft pedigree, Carson\u2019s efficiency and consistency allowed him to keep Penny buried on the depth chart.<\/p>\n

2019 Projection<\/h3>\n

Unfortunately, it\u2019s entirely possible that 2018 was a career year for Carson. Carson had just about everything go his way last year, and it\u2019s hard to project that happening again. For one, Penny has another year in the system and is starting to play faster<\/a>. If these two players play at a similar level, Penny\u2019s draft pedigree will ensure he sees more of the snaps.<\/p>\n

Additionally, Carson\u2019s physical style of play naturally leads to injury. Chris Carson has the ability to make guys miss in space, but he\u2019s just as willing to lower the shoulder and plow through defenders. This skill, while fun to watch, is naturally conducive to injury. Carson\u2019s physical style of play cost him two games in 2018 and 12 in 2017. Every player in the NFL carries an injury risk, but Carson has lower odds of playing a full 16-game season than most.<\/p>\n

As if that wasn\u2019t enough, Seattle probably won\u2019t run the ball as much in 2019. The Seahawks still want to be a team that runs on first and second down, but that style of play simply isn\u2019t sustainable in today\u2019s NFL. The reason it worked last year is that Russell Wilson<\/a><\/strong> was absurdly efficient<\/a> in the passing game and the defense played like an above-average unit. Wilson cannot maintain that efficiency, meaning that drives won\u2019t last as long. Additionally, Seattle\u2019s defense will probably be worse after losing Frank Clark<\/a><\/strong> to Kansas City and Jarran Reed<\/a> <\/strong>to suspension. The Seahawks will need to throw the ball to stay in games, and Carson doesn\u2019t project as a pass-catcher.<\/p>\n

The good news is that there\u2019s one less mouth to feed. Mike Davis<\/a><\/strong> left Seattle in the off-season to join the Chicago Bears, and the Seahawks didn\u2019t do anything to replace his 146 touches. C.J. Prosise<\/a><\/strong> is made of glass and J.D. McKissic<\/a><\/strong> isn\u2019t taking anyone\u2019s job. At the very least, this lack of depth should give Carson a relatively stable floor.<\/p>\n

Chris Carson Average Draft Position<\/h3>\n

Fantasy Football Calculator currently has Carson going off the board with the 45th<\/sup> overall pick in half-point scoring formats. This makes him the 24th<\/sup> running back off the board and puts him in the same tier as guys like Phillip Lindsay<\/a>, Mark Ingram<\/a><\/strong>, and Sony Michel<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Carson is probably the last running back before a gigantic tier drop. Lindsay and Ingram should have better seasons than Carson, but Michel and Carson should have similar finishes. However, once Carson and Michel come off the board, the next running backs by ADP are James White<\/a>, Kenyan Drake<\/a><\/strong>, and Tarik Cohen<\/a><\/strong>. White and Cohen are both major regression candidates, while Drake reportedly is losing first-team snaps to Kalen Ballage<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Due to the steep drop in running back talent, you should probably target running backs early in your draft. However, if you don\u2019t have two starting-caliber runners in the fifth round, make sure you grab Carson. At the very least, Seattle\u2019s run-heavy philosophy will ensure a safe floor, even if he probably won\u2019t replicate his 2018 success.<\/p>\n

Fantasy Football Draft Headquarters<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Main photo:
\nEmbed from Getty Images<\/a>