{"id":65366,"date":"2019-05-13T21:26:33","date_gmt":"2019-05-14T01:26:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lwosonnfl.ms.lastwordonsports.com\/?p=65366"},"modified":"2019-08-11T22:48:23","modified_gmt":"2019-08-12T02:48:23","slug":"todd-gurley-fantasy-football-2019-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/2019\/05\/13\/todd-gurley-fantasy-football-2019-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"Todd Gurley Fantasy Football 2019 Outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nobody faces more pressure in the fantasy football world than Los Angeles Rams<\/a> running back Todd Gurley<\/a><\/strong>. Once considered the no-brainer best running back in fantasy, Gurley is now at something of a crossroads in his career. The former first-round pick offers unmatched upside but also carries more risk than just about any of the top tier running backs. Is Gurley still among the elite at his position and worthy of a top investment?<\/p>\n

Fantasy Football Draft Headquarters<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Todd Gurley 2019 Fantasy Football Season Preview<\/strong><\/h2>\n

2018 Recap<\/h3>\n

Gurley was easily the best running back in fantasy football throughout the first 12 games of the season. Serving as the unquestioned lead back, Gurley recorded 1,175 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns to go along with 46 receptions for 474 yards and an additional four scores. His 25.5 fantasy points per game were easily the highest mark among running backs and he was single-handedly leading fantasy teams towards championships.<\/p>\n

Then, all of a sudden, the wheels fell off the wagon. Following two subpar weeks of play, Gurley missed the final two games of the season with a then-undisclosed knee injury. In his absence, C.J. Anderson<\/a><\/strong> came out of nowhere to seamlessly replace Gurley in the Rams offense. Gurley returned for the playoffs but split time with Anderson for the majority of the postseason run. Los Angeles actually used Anderson more than Gurley, as the midseason acquisition recorded 46 carries to Gurley\u2019s 30.<\/p>\n

The Rams insisted that Gurley\u2019s knee was fine, but that turned out to be a lie. According to Jeff Howe<\/strong> of The Athletic<\/em>, Gurley has arthritis in his knee, causing his mysterious usage down the stretch. This obviously is terrible news for Gurley, but what will this mean for his fantasy value in the short term?<\/p>\n

2019 Projection<\/h3>\n

Everything is looking down for Todd Gurley ever since his arthritis diagnosis. Arthritis is different than most injuries in that there is no real cure. Gurley can take medicine and physical to minimize the effect, but there\u2019s no way to fully recover from the condition. Dr. Jesse Morse of Florida Orthopedic Specialists chimed in<\/a> on the matter, saying that he believes \u201cGurley\u2019s best days are behind him.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Los Angeles Rams seem to agree. While they let Anderson walk in free agency, the Rams invested significant money and draft capital into the running back position. The team matched a restricted free agent offer for Malcolm Brown<\/a><\/strong>, bringing back Gurley\u2019s understudy on a two-year, $3.3 million contract. Shortly after doing that, Los Angeles drafted running back Darrell Henderson<\/strong><\/a> early in the third round. This was just the Rams second pick of the draft and this selection wouldn\u2019t make sense if Los Angeles didn\u2019t plan on immediately incorporating him into the offense.<\/p>\n

On top of all this, Gurley\u2019s offensive line will probably be worse in 2019. The Rams offensive line is set to look a lot different after losing Rodger Saffold<\/a><\/strong> and John Sullivan<\/a><\/strong> in free agency. Saffold, in particular, was one of the best guards in the league and his absence will affect Gurley\u2019s success. Additionally, Andrew Whitworth<\/a><\/strong> isn\u2019t getting any younger. Whitworth was fantastic in 2018 but could see a dramatic dip in play at any moment during his age-38 season.<\/p>\n

Todd Gurley Average Draft Position<\/h3>\n

Fantasy Football Calculator currently has Gurley as the ninth overall pick and eighth running back off the board in half-PPR scoring formats. This places him right below Le\u2019Veon Bell<\/strong><\/a> and just above James Conner<\/a>, Davante Adams<\/a><\/strong>, and Julio Jones<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Quite frankly, this is too early to take Gurley. As great as he was for the past two seasons, drafting a player based on past accomplishments is a bad fantasy football strategy. The truth of the matter is that Gurley has an incurable knee condition which will forever affect his career. While his career isn\u2019t over, he\u2019s no longer capable of being the unstoppable feature back of 2017 and 2018.<\/p>\n

The Rams are painfully aware of this, as they\u2019ve invested money in Malcolm Brown and an early draft pick in Darrell Henderson. The Rams are strapped for cash and didn\u2019t have that many picks in the 2019 NFL Draft. Los Angeles wouldn\u2019t have made these moves if they were comfortable Gurley could still be the main guy moving forward.<\/p>\n

Gurley is still a good player, but he won\u2019t be as explosive and he won\u2019t see as big of a workload. His upside alone makes him worth the risk if he\u2019s still on the board midway through the second round. However, Gurley carries too much risk to be a first-round pick. James Conner and Joe Mixon<\/a><\/strong> might not produce like 2017 Todd Gurley, but they\u2019re significantly safer options who you should take over Gurley.<\/p>\n

Fantasy Football Draft Headquarters<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Main photo:
\nEmbed from Getty Images<\/a>