{"id":54491,"date":"2018-12-06T06:48:07","date_gmt":"2018-12-06T11:48:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lwosonnfl.ms.lastwordonsports.com\/?p=54491"},"modified":"2018-12-06T06:48:07","modified_gmt":"2018-12-06T11:48:07","slug":"fantasy-football-courtland-sutton-stock-lowered-after-emmanuel-sanders-injury","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/2018\/12\/06\/fantasy-football-courtland-sutton-stock-lowered-after-emmanuel-sanders-injury\/","title":{"rendered":"Fantasy Football: Courtland Sutton Stock Lowered After Emmanuel Sanders Injury"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Denver Broncos<\/a> suffered a catastrophic loss on Wednesday, losing star receiver Emmanuel Sanders<\/a> <\/strong>to a season-ending Achilles injury. From a fantasy perspective, this injury launches rookie wide receiver Courtland Sutton<\/a> <\/strong>to the top of the depth chart. While some may expect this to increase Sutton\u2019s fantasy value, this injury only lowers his stock. Granted, he no longer has to fight with Sanders for targets, but Sutton simply isn\u2019t ready to be a top wide receiver in an NFL offense.<\/p>\n

Fantasy Football: Tamper Your Courtland Sutton Expectations<\/h1>\n

Sutton has a bright future in the NFL, but it\u2019s clear that he\u2019s not ready to be a number one receiver quite yet. Sutton entered the year as Denver’s third wide receiver and was promoted to WR2 when the Broncos traded Demaryius Thomas<\/a><\/strong> to the Houston Texans<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Despite never facing the opposing teams\u2019 best cornerbacks, Sutton has struggled to gain separation this season. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Sutton is averaging just 2.2 yards of separation per route run. If he can\u2019t gain separation when Emmanuel Sanders was taking the opposing teams\u2019 best cornerback, he\u2019s certainly not going to do it now.<\/p>\n

Some players are capable of overcoming a lack of separation by using their larger frame to box or defenders or just by having a quarterback that can place the ball anywhere. While Sutton\u2019s 6\u2019-3\u201d, 218-pound frame can help him win jump balls, his quarterback situation limits his ceiling on these type of throws. Case Keenum<\/a><\/strong> is anything but an elite quarterback, and he struggles to consistently put the ball where he wants it. If Sutton\u2019s going to be productive, he\u2019s going to have to win on contested passes, as Keenum doesn\u2019t have what it takes to consistently throw receivers open like a Drew Brees<\/a><\/strong> or a Tom Brady<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Thanks to his quarterback and his inability to separate, Sutton just hasn\u2019t been that productive this year. Per SharpFootballStats.com, Sutton has a 47.5% success rate on targets this season, 4.2% below league average. Success rate, for those who don\u2019t know, is used to determine whether a\u00a0play puts the offense in a good position to continue a drive. As it is, Sutton hasn\u2019t been getting it done this season, despite never facing top defenders. It\u2019s probable that his success rate drops even lower when he\u2019s lined up against the opposing defenses top cornerbacks.<\/p>\n

Sutton Is Not A Lost Cause<\/h2>\n

The one thing working in Sutton\u2019s favor is the schedule the rest of the way. From now until Week 16, Sutton gets to face off against the San Francisco 49ers<\/a>, Cleveland Browns<\/a>, and Oakland Raiders<\/a>. These teams allow the 4th<\/sup>, 15th<\/sup>, and 18th<\/sup> most fantasy points to the wide receiver position in standard scoring, so the\u00a0opportunity will be there for Sutton.<\/p>\n

However, going by fantasy points to the wide receiver position isn\u2019t the best way to predict Sutton\u2019s output. Sutton\u2019s going to be Denver\u2019s WR1, so let\u2019s look at how these teams do at\u00a0defending an opposing teams\u2019 top wide receiver.<\/p>\n

Per Football Outsiders, the 49ers rank 19th<\/sup> in the league at defending the WR1, allowing an average of eight pass attempts and 71.6 yards per game. This is right around the league average rate of 7.9 pass attempts per game and 69 yards per game. Cleveland is right in line with the 49ers, averaging 9.8 pass attempts per game to the WR1 for 78 yards.<\/p>\n

Despite ranking 32nd<\/sup> in overall defensive DVOA, the Raiders are actually the best in the league at defending the WR1 position. Per Football Outsiders, Oakland allows 7.1 passes per game to the WR1 position, but only allows 55.2 yards per game. This doesn\u2019t look good for Sutton, as the Raiders have faced some truly elite WR1\u2019s like Tyreek Hill<\/a>, Keenan Allen<\/a> <\/strong>(twice), and Brandin Cooks<\/a><\/strong>, just to name a few. The Broncos and the Raiders face off in Week 16, so Sutton probably won\u2019t be much use to you on Championship Weekend.<\/p>\n

Last Word on Courtland Sutton<\/h2>\n

Courtland Sutton will see his snaps increase with Emmanuel Sanders out of the way, but the rookie isn\u2019t ready to be a true number one receiver right now. Sutton hasn\u2019t been able to consistently gain separation even when Sanders and Thomas were drawing the opposing defenses best defenders. It\u2019s hard to imagine that problem resolving itself now that he\u2019ll line up against top cornerbacks for the rest of the season. Case Keenum isn\u2019t good enough to throw him open consistently, so it could be rough sailing for Sutton.<\/p>\n

Sutton\u2019s success rate was below league average before this injury, so it\u2019s not like he was making big plays with any sort of regularity. With nobody to take defensive focus from him, that success rate will probably plummet. Don\u2019t be surprised to see Denver go with a run-heavy attack the rest of the way.<\/p>\n

The one thing working in Sutton\u2019s favor is Denver\u2019s schedule. The San Francisco 49ers and Cleveland Browns are both below average at defending WR1\u2019s, so Sutton might put up some numbers here. You can start him if you have no better option, but Sutton could be a touchdown or bust guy the rest of the season.<\/p>\n

Main photo:
\nEmbed from Getty Images<\/a>