QUARTERBACKS<\/h3>\n![\"Kyler](\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/USATSI_27051273_168402708_lowres-1024x683.jpg\")
Photo Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nStart \u2014 Drake Maye (NE vs. ATL)<\/h4>\n
A mid-range total keeps the ceiling intact, and New England<\/a>\u2019s offense has shown better balance over the last two weeks. Maye\u2019s pocket management and intermediate accuracy have ticked up, creating cleaner third-down outcomes. Atlanta\u2019s pass defense has been middle-of-the-pack, and can be stressed – just ask Tua. In a home spot with a manageable pace, Maye profiles as a strong QB1\/2 swing.<\/p>\nStart \u2014 Kyler Murray (ARI @ DAL)<\/h4>\n
This game is the week\u2019s track meet, and Murray\u2019s dual-threat usage has trended up after a slow September. Dallas<\/a> bleeds explosive pass plays and yards per attempt (I call it the \u201cCowboys effect\u201d), and Arizona<\/a> stacks volume when pace goes up. Murray\u2019s recent accuracy on intermediate crossers matches well with Harrison Jr.\u2019s route tree. Top-8 ceiling for Kyler this week.<\/p>\nSit \u2014 C.J. Stroud (HOU vs. DEN)<\/h4>\n
Expect a slower environment with limited possessions, which compresses ceiling outcomes. Did you see what the Broncos<\/a> just did to Dak and the boys? And that was the league\u2019s top offense, which Houston<\/a> is not. The Texan\u2019s protection has been volatile, and pressure has correlated with Stroud\u2019s down weeks. The floor is fine; the path to a spike week is narrow, even with Patrick Surtain II out (see Jahdae Barron).<\/p>\nSit \u2014 Jaxson Dart (NYG vs. SF)<\/h4>\n
Even with home-field comfort, this is a tough draw against a defense that squeezes throwing windows and punishes late balls outside the numbers. Losing Cam hurts – they\u2019ll miss the balance and rhythm they had with him in there. Dart will have to cook without one of his main ingredients, and I\u2019m not sure I trust it. Variance is high without a stable volume base – bench in standard one-QB formats.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
RUNNING BACKS<\/h3>\n![\"D'Andre](\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/10\/DAndre-Swift-Injury-1024x683.jpg\")
Photo Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nStart \u2014 Kimani Vidal (LAC @ TEN)<\/h4>\n
Los Angeles<\/a> projects a positive game script, and Vidal\u2019s early-down work plus goal-line equity fits that scenario. Tennessee<\/a> has been vulnerable to power\/duo concepts that the Chargers leaned into last week. Vidal\u2019s tackle-breaking has translated to steady success rates on first and second down. A high-end RB2 profile with RB1 access if the Chargers jump out early.<\/p>\nStart \u2014 D\u2019Andre Swift (CHI @ CIN)<\/h4>\n
Chicago<\/a> gets back to the thunder and lightning formula (Swift and Monangai) in this one, restoring offensive identity after last week\u2019s chaos. A high total and rising rushing efficiency also make this attractive. Cincinnati<\/a> has been susceptible to chunk runs, opening lanes for perimeter and cutback schemes. Multi-touchdown pathways exist in this pace-up spot.<\/p>\nSit \u2014 Chase Brown (CIN vs. CHI)<\/h4>\n
Workload volatility (Samaje Perine\u2019s arrow is pointing up) keeps the week-to-week floor fragile. In higher-scoring games, Cincinnati often tilts pass-heavy in neutral\/negative scripts, squeezing early-down carries. Chicago\u2019s front has been disruptive to RB rhythm, making opposing ball carriers’ totals TD-dependent. Don\u2019t like the growing timeshare, don\u2019t like the matchup.<\/p>\n
Sit \u2014 David Montgomery (DET vs. MIN)<\/h4>\n
My weekly \u201cmake me regret sitting you\u201d spot. He\u2019s here until he proves me wrong. Detroit<\/a> has leaned wayyyy into Gibbs lately, and Montgomery just hasn\u2019t been as effective with his touches. The Vikings<\/a> run defense is pretty decent, and I don\u2019t see a big game for both backs here. Monty is another TD-dependent back this week, and I\u2019m looking elsewhere.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
WIDE RECEIVERS<\/h3>\n![\"Chiefs](\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2023\/11\/USATSI_21980782-1024x683.jpg\")
Photo Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nStart \u2014 Rashee Rice (KC @ BUF)<\/h4>\n
The total is premium, and Rice\u2019s post-return usage jumped immediately (93 yards and a score in Week 8). Buffalo<\/a>\u2019s coverage has traded explosives for rally-and-tackle but can still be isolated from reduced splits, where Rice thrives on RPO glance and option routes. With pace and points expected, Mahomes-to-Rice volume is bankable for WR2 production at a minimum. Ceiling climbs if KC faces a negative script.<\/p>\nStart \u2014 Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI @ DAL)<\/h4>\n
See Kyler Murray, above. We\u2019re stacking against the Cowboys, here. High total + prime one-on-ones = alpha-volume spot. Dallas has allowed efficient WR lines alllllll year, and Arizona has leaned into Harrison\u2019s boundary isolation + in-breakers vs. off\/quarters looks. When the game turns fast, expect Harrison\u2019s targets to spike. Firmly locked-in WR1\/2 range.<\/p>\n
Sit \u2014 Courtland Sutton (DEN @ HOU)<\/h4>\n
Total is depressed, and Derek Stingley Jr. has been lights out, limiting catch rate and downfield wins. Bo Nix is distributing efficiently, which flattens Sutton\u2019s target share volatility outside the red zone. In a low-possession game, Sutton\u2019s margin is narrow unless he scores. I prefer volume-centric options over a tough CB1 draw.<\/p>\n
Sit \u2014 Quentin Johnston (LAC @ TEN)<\/h4>\n
Even as a favorite, Los Angeles is spreading targets: Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, Oronde Gadsden II, and Kimani Vidal all siphon touches. Johnston\u2019s snap share has stayed decent, but targets\/route and production lag; he\u2019s become more of a clear-out\/stretch piece in this configuration. Against a Titans defense more giving to slot\/TE, QJ profiles as a prayer-based flex. Bench unless you\u2019re chasing a long shot.<\/p>\n
\nAlso, make sure to check out our Week 9 Quarterback Rankings<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n
\n<\/p>\n
TIGHT ENDS<\/h3>\n![\"2025](\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2024\/10\/USATSI_24604180-1024x683.jpg\")
Photo Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nStart: Brock Bowers (LV v. JAC)<\/h4>\n
Multiple reports have Bowers trending toward a post-bye return for Week 9, and the total is playable. Jacksonville<\/a> has been middle-of-the-pack vs. TEs, and the Raiders<\/a> badly need a chain-mover. It\u2019ll be the first game back slinging, and I expect heavy-schemed looks (leak, TE screens, play-action crossers) to reset offensive rhythm. TE1 upside if he\u2019s active.<\/p>\nStart: Colston Loveland (CHI @ CIN)<\/h4>\n
Because why not? Loveland\u2019s snaps and routes have climbed, and with Cole Kmet banged up\/out or limited recently, he\u2019s carving out hospitable usage. In a high total with an outstanding TE factor, Chicago\u2019s play-action and boot concepts naturally feature the Y\/wing on crossers and over routes, which Colston can exploit. Even if Kmet plays, recent target funk keeps Loveland viable as a top-12 streamer.<\/p>\n
Sit: Hunter Henry (NE v. ATL)<\/h4>\n
Recent volatility in target volume makes the week-to-week projection shaky. Atlanta<\/a> typically compresses tight end efficiency, forcing offenses to work outside or to backs. Without steady red-zone chances, the touchdown bet is thin. There are cleaner streaming options in similar totals.<\/p>\nSit: Dalton Kincaid (BUF v. KC)<\/h4>\n
Despite a strong game total, Buffalo has shown stretches of WR-led distribution (hello Khalil Shakir) when chasing points. Kansas City<\/a>\u2019s linebacker\/safety speed can limit tight end yards after catch and reduce easy stick throws. If the game speeds up, wideouts are more likely to absorb the spike targets. Fringe TE2 with more downside than usual.<\/p>\n
Start \u2014 Drake Maye (NE vs. ATL)<\/h4>\n
A mid-range total keeps the ceiling intact, and New England<\/a>\u2019s offense has shown better balance over the last two weeks. Maye\u2019s pocket management and intermediate accuracy have ticked up, creating cleaner third-down outcomes. Atlanta\u2019s pass defense has been middle-of-the-pack, and can be stressed – just ask Tua. In a home spot with a manageable pace, Maye profiles as a strong QB1\/2 swing.<\/p>\n This game is the week\u2019s track meet, and Murray\u2019s dual-threat usage has trended up after a slow September. Dallas<\/a> bleeds explosive pass plays and yards per attempt (I call it the \u201cCowboys effect\u201d), and Arizona<\/a> stacks volume when pace goes up. Murray\u2019s recent accuracy on intermediate crossers matches well with Harrison Jr.\u2019s route tree. Top-8 ceiling for Kyler this week.<\/p>\n Expect a slower environment with limited possessions, which compresses ceiling outcomes. Did you see what the Broncos<\/a> just did to Dak and the boys? And that was the league\u2019s top offense, which Houston<\/a> is not. The Texan\u2019s protection has been volatile, and pressure has correlated with Stroud\u2019s down weeks. The floor is fine; the path to a spike week is narrow, even with Patrick Surtain II out (see Jahdae Barron).<\/p>\n Even with home-field comfort, this is a tough draw against a defense that squeezes throwing windows and punishes late balls outside the numbers. Losing Cam hurts – they\u2019ll miss the balance and rhythm they had with him in there. Dart will have to cook without one of his main ingredients, and I\u2019m not sure I trust it. Variance is high without a stable volume base – bench in standard one-QB formats.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Los Angeles<\/a> projects a positive game script, and Vidal\u2019s early-down work plus goal-line equity fits that scenario. Tennessee<\/a> has been vulnerable to power\/duo concepts that the Chargers leaned into last week. Vidal\u2019s tackle-breaking has translated to steady success rates on first and second down. A high-end RB2 profile with RB1 access if the Chargers jump out early.<\/p>\n Chicago<\/a> gets back to the thunder and lightning formula (Swift and Monangai) in this one, restoring offensive identity after last week\u2019s chaos. A high total and rising rushing efficiency also make this attractive. Cincinnati<\/a> has been susceptible to chunk runs, opening lanes for perimeter and cutback schemes. Multi-touchdown pathways exist in this pace-up spot.<\/p>\n Workload volatility (Samaje Perine\u2019s arrow is pointing up) keeps the week-to-week floor fragile. In higher-scoring games, Cincinnati often tilts pass-heavy in neutral\/negative scripts, squeezing early-down carries. Chicago\u2019s front has been disruptive to RB rhythm, making opposing ball carriers’ totals TD-dependent. Don\u2019t like the growing timeshare, don\u2019t like the matchup.<\/p>\n My weekly \u201cmake me regret sitting you\u201d spot. He\u2019s here until he proves me wrong. Detroit<\/a> has leaned wayyyy into Gibbs lately, and Montgomery just hasn\u2019t been as effective with his touches. The Vikings<\/a> run defense is pretty decent, and I don\u2019t see a big game for both backs here. Monty is another TD-dependent back this week, and I\u2019m looking elsewhere.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The total is premium, and Rice\u2019s post-return usage jumped immediately (93 yards and a score in Week 8). Buffalo<\/a>\u2019s coverage has traded explosives for rally-and-tackle but can still be isolated from reduced splits, where Rice thrives on RPO glance and option routes. With pace and points expected, Mahomes-to-Rice volume is bankable for WR2 production at a minimum. Ceiling climbs if KC faces a negative script.<\/p>\n See Kyler Murray, above. We\u2019re stacking against the Cowboys, here. High total + prime one-on-ones = alpha-volume spot. Dallas has allowed efficient WR lines alllllll year, and Arizona has leaned into Harrison\u2019s boundary isolation + in-breakers vs. off\/quarters looks. When the game turns fast, expect Harrison\u2019s targets to spike. Firmly locked-in WR1\/2 range.<\/p>\n Total is depressed, and Derek Stingley Jr. has been lights out, limiting catch rate and downfield wins. Bo Nix is distributing efficiently, which flattens Sutton\u2019s target share volatility outside the red zone. In a low-possession game, Sutton\u2019s margin is narrow unless he scores. I prefer volume-centric options over a tough CB1 draw.<\/p>\n Even as a favorite, Los Angeles is spreading targets: Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, Oronde Gadsden II, and Kimani Vidal all siphon touches. Johnston\u2019s snap share has stayed decent, but targets\/route and production lag; he\u2019s become more of a clear-out\/stretch piece in this configuration. Against a Titans defense more giving to slot\/TE, QJ profiles as a prayer-based flex. Bench unless you\u2019re chasing a long shot.<\/p>\n Also, make sure to check out our Week 9 Quarterback Rankings<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Multiple reports have Bowers trending toward a post-bye return for Week 9, and the total is playable. Jacksonville<\/a> has been middle-of-the-pack vs. TEs, and the Raiders<\/a> badly need a chain-mover. It\u2019ll be the first game back slinging, and I expect heavy-schemed looks (leak, TE screens, play-action crossers) to reset offensive rhythm. TE1 upside if he\u2019s active.<\/p>\n Because why not? Loveland\u2019s snaps and routes have climbed, and with Cole Kmet banged up\/out or limited recently, he\u2019s carving out hospitable usage. In a high total with an outstanding TE factor, Chicago\u2019s play-action and boot concepts naturally feature the Y\/wing on crossers and over routes, which Colston can exploit. Even if Kmet plays, recent target funk keeps Loveland viable as a top-12 streamer.<\/p>\n Recent volatility in target volume makes the week-to-week projection shaky. Atlanta<\/a> typically compresses tight end efficiency, forcing offenses to work outside or to backs. Without steady red-zone chances, the touchdown bet is thin. There are cleaner streaming options in similar totals.<\/p>\n Despite a strong game total, Buffalo has shown stretches of WR-led distribution (hello Khalil Shakir) when chasing points. Kansas City<\/a>\u2019s linebacker\/safety speed can limit tight end yards after catch and reduce easy stick throws. If the game speeds up, wideouts are more likely to absorb the spike targets. Fringe TE2 with more downside than usual.<\/p>\nStart \u2014 Kyler Murray (ARI @ DAL)<\/h4>\n
Sit \u2014 C.J. Stroud (HOU vs. DEN)<\/h4>\n
Sit \u2014 Jaxson Dart (NYG vs. SF)<\/h4>\n
RUNNING BACKS<\/h3>\n
Start \u2014 Kimani Vidal (LAC @ TEN)<\/h4>\n
Start \u2014 D\u2019Andre Swift (CHI @ CIN)<\/h4>\n
Sit \u2014 Chase Brown (CIN vs. CHI)<\/h4>\n
Sit \u2014 David Montgomery (DET vs. MIN)<\/h4>\n
WIDE RECEIVERS<\/h3>\n
Start \u2014 Rashee Rice (KC @ BUF)<\/h4>\n
Start \u2014 Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI @ DAL)<\/h4>\n
Sit \u2014 Courtland Sutton (DEN @ HOU)<\/h4>\n
Sit \u2014 Quentin Johnston (LAC @ TEN)<\/h4>\n
\n
\nTIGHT ENDS<\/h3>\n
Start: Brock Bowers (LV v. JAC)<\/h4>\n
Start: Colston Loveland (CHI @ CIN)<\/h4>\n
Sit: Hunter Henry (NE v. ATL)<\/h4>\n
Sit: Dalton Kincaid (BUF v. KC)<\/h4>\n