{"id":21657,"date":"2017-06-24T19:04:37","date_gmt":"2017-06-24T23:04:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lwosonnfl.ms.lastwordonsports.com\/?p=21657"},"modified":"2017-06-25T10:13:58","modified_gmt":"2017-06-25T14:13:58","slug":"looking-to-2017-100-fantasy-football-facts-volume-ii","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/2017\/06\/24\/looking-to-2017-100-fantasy-football-facts-volume-ii\/","title":{"rendered":"Looking to 2017: 100 Fantasy Football Facts-Volume II"},"content":{"rendered":"

Our first volume of “100 Fantasy Football Facts” was published four months ago<\/a> on March first. That was before the NFL Draft and was based strictly on returning players.<\/p>\n

Now that the month of June is ending, and the team rosters and depth charts have completely changed, there is no better time to publish our second installment of \u201c100 Fantasy Football Facts.\u201d \u00a0We will publish our third edition right before the start of the season in September.<\/p>\n

These are 100\u00a0completely true facts that will surprise and confuse fantasy football fanatics. The facts may or may not lead to the obvious conclusion, but the goal is to keep your fantasy football mind racing.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s one thing to have a grasp of analytics, but it\u2019s another thing entirely to use those numbers as building blocks to some higher truth.<\/p>\n

The question remains open for debate: does the data lead to the proper conclusion?<\/p>\n

Here are 100 facts to give dedicated fantasy football junkies something to chew over as the summer months arrive.<\/p>\n

(All statistical information was taken from PlayerProfiler<\/a>. All average draft positions were from MyFantasyLeague<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Looking to 2017: 100 Fantasy Football Facts-Volume II<\/h2>\n

Peeling Back the Running Back Onion<\/h3>\n
    \n
  1. Among all running backs with at least 100 carries, the top five in yards per carry against a light defensive front were: \u00a0Jacquizz Rodgers<\/a><\/strong> (7.0 ypc), Mike Gillislee<\/a><\/strong> (6.6 ypc), Jordan Howard<\/a><\/strong> (6.3 ypc), Devonta Freeman<\/a><\/strong> (5.9 ypc), and Le’Veon Bell<\/a><\/strong> (5.9 ypc).<\/li>\n
  2. Rodgers ran behind the second worst<\/em> offensive line for\u00a0run blocking efficiency, and Mike Gillislee<\/a> ran behind the 11th worst<\/em> offensive line for\u00a0run blocking efficiency.<\/li>\n
  3. Tampa Bay added tight end O.J. Howard<\/a><\/strong> in the first round of the draft and rookie wide receiver Chris Godwin<\/a><\/strong> in round three. Godwin is already impressing the coaches in minicamp<\/a>. Tampa Bay also added veteran speedster DeSean Jackson<\/a><\/strong> via free agency. This should support an increase in the number of light defensive fronts Tampa Bay faces this season.<\/li>\n
  4. Doug Martin<\/a><\/strong> is suspended for the first three games of the season due to a positive drug test last season. Jacquizz Rodgers<\/a> is not<\/em> suspended.<\/li>\n
  5. Mike Gillislee<\/a> only attempted 12.9 percent of his runs against light defensive fronts, which ranked 130th among all running backs.<\/li>\n
  6. Former New England Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount<\/a><\/strong> saw 24.1 percent of his runs against light defensive fronts last season. This is almost double the percentage (on a\u00a0base of 198 more touches) that Mike Gillislee<\/a> had.<\/li>\n
  7. New England’s offensive line ranked 14th in run blocking efficiency, eight spots better than Buffalo’s offensive line. Mike Gillislee<\/a> is now a member of the Patriots.<\/li>\n
  8. Jacquizz Rodgers<\/a>‘ average draft position (ADP) according to is 193.5 (Round 17). Mike Gillislee<\/a>‘s ADP is 72.5 (Round Seven).<\/li>\n
  9. Among all running backs with at least 100 carries, the top five in Yards Per Carry against a Stacked\u00a0Defensive Front were: Terrance West<\/strong><\/a> (6.6 ypc), Mike Gillislee<\/a> (4.7 ypc), LeSean McCoy<\/a> <\/strong>(4.7 ypc), Latavius Murray<\/a> <\/strong>(4.2 ypc), and Frank Gore<\/a> <\/strong>(3.9 ypc).<\/li>\n
  10. The only running back to appear in the top five on both lists? \u00a0Again, Mike Gillislee<\/a>, who already has the inside track<\/a> to the starting job in New England.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Hot Slot Machine<\/h3>\n

    11. \u00a0Out of Anquan Boldin<\/a>‘s<\/strong> 95 targets last season, 54.5 percent came when he lined up as a slot wide receiver. This was seventh most among all wide receivers.
    \n12. \u00a0Out of     Golden Tate<\/a>‘s<\/strong> 135 targets last season, only 17.1 percent came when he lined up as a slot wide receiver. This was 47th most among all wide receivers.
    \n13. \u00a0In     Calvin Johnson<\/a>‘s<\/strong> last NFL season (2015), Tate accumulated 56.7 percent of his targets and 61.6 percent of his receiving yards from the slot receiver position.
    \n14. Evan Silva<\/strong> of Rotoworld reported that     Golden Tate<\/a> is seeing more slot work at Lions OTAs this Spring.
    \n15. \u00a0    Anquan Boldin<\/a> had 15 red zone receptions last season, which was second among all<\/em> NFL wide receivers.
    \n16. \u00a0    Golden Tate<\/a> had nine red zone receptions last season, which ranked 17th among all NFL wide receivers.
    \n17. \u00a0Last season,     Golden Tate<\/a> was first<\/em> among all NFL wide receivers with 676 yards after catch. Yet, he ranked 37th at the position with only four touchdowns.
    \n18. \u00a0Boldin ranked tenth among all wide receivers with eight touchdowns.
    \n19. \u00a0    Golden Tate<\/a>‘s receptions the past three seasons: \u00a099, 90, 91.
    \n20. \u00a0Currently,     Golden Tate<\/a>‘s ADP is 44.5 as the 24th wide receiver, or barely a WR2.<\/p>\n

    Target Maven for Ravens?<\/h3>\n

    21. \u00a0The Baltimore Ravens threw the football 712\u00a0times last season, the most in the NFL.
    \n22. \u00a0    Steve Smith<\/a><\/strong>, Dennis Pitta<\/a>, Kyle Juszczyk<\/a><\/strong>, and Kamar Aiken<\/a><\/strong> combined for 321 targets and 222 receptions. All four of those players are no longer on the Ravens.
    \n23. \u00a0Running back     Kenneth Dixon<\/a><\/strong> is suspended for the first four games of the 2017 season due to a PED violation. \u00a0The Ravens did not draft a running back in this year’s draft, and only added pass-catching specialist Danny Woodhead<\/a><\/strong> to the backfield in the off-season.
    \n24. \u00a0The Ravens also signed     Jeremy Maclin<\/a><\/strong> this offseason.
    \n25. \u00a0Besides Maclin, the most targets a Baltimore wide receiver has ever had in his career was     Mike Wallace<\/a> <\/strong>with 141 in 2013 at the age of 27. \u00a0Wallace turns 31 years old this year.
    \n26. \u00a0If Wallace equals that 2013 target amount, that would increase his targets from last year by 24. Third year wide receiver     Breshad Perriman<\/a> <\/strong>had 66 targets last season. If we project him to reach 80 targets (not likely), that would still leave 283 available targets.
    \n27. \u00a0If we add one fourth of     Kenneth Dixon<\/a>‘s targets (7.5), that makes a total of 290.5 targets from 2016 still available.
    \n28. The most targets tight end     Ben Watson<\/a> <\/strong>has ever had in his career is 110 in 2015. Watson is now 37 years old. \u00a0If we project all Ravens tight ends to have 130 targets (not likely) that still leaves 160.5 available targets.
    \n29. That leaves     Chris Matthews<\/strong><\/a> (13 career receptions), Chris Moore<\/a> <\/strong>(7 receptions), Kenny Bell<\/a><\/strong>, Michael Campanaro<\/a><\/strong>, and of course Danny Woodhead<\/a> and Jeremy Maclin<\/a>.
    \n30. Every year Danny Woodhead has received 55 targets or more, he has finished as a WR2 or better in PPR formats.
    \n31. Every year     Jeremy Maclin<\/a> has received 124 targets or more he has finished as a top 15 fantasy wide receiver or better.
    \n32. \u00a0Danny Woodhead’s current ADP is 77.2 at RB29.     Jeremy Maclin<\/a>‘s current ADP is 102.9 or WR45.<\/p>\n

    Contested But Victorious<\/h3>\n

    33. Among wide receivers with at least 100 overall targets and<\/em> 20 contested targets, the following five players had the highest Contested Catch Conversion Rate: \u00a0Julio Jones<\/a> <\/strong>(90.9 percent), Mike Evans<\/a> <\/strong>(81.8 percent), Michael Crabtree<\/a> <\/strong>(80.0 percent), Demaryius Thomas<\/a> <\/strong>(78.6 percent), Davante Adams<\/a> <\/strong>(76.9 percent).
    \n34. According to     MFL10<\/a>, their respective ADPs are: Julio Jones<\/a> 5.92, Mike Evans<\/a> 7.04, Michael Crabtree<\/a> 43.45, Demaryius Thomas<\/a> 30.2, Davante Adams<\/a> 35.5.
    \n35.     Michael Crabtree<\/a> is the 23rd wide receiver off the board, yet finished as the 16th best PPR fantasy wide receiver in 2015, and the 12th best PPR fantasy wide receiver in 2016.
    \n36.     Davante Adams<\/a> is the 19th wide receiver off the board. He finished with 75 receptions, 997 yards, and 12 touchdowns. Adams ranked as the WR9 in PPR scoring formats.
    \n37. Adams ranked fourth among all wide receivers with 14 red zone receptions. Crabtree ranked seventh with 12 red zone receptions.
    \n38. \u00a0Oakland’s     Derek Carr<\/a> <\/strong>ranked fifth among all quarterbacks with 92 red zone pass attempts. He also missed one game due to injury.
    \n39. \u00a0Green Bay’s     Aaron Rodgers<\/a><\/strong> ranked first among all quarterbacks with 115 red zone pass attempts.
    \n40. How are two wide receivers, tethered to heavy red zone passing quarterbacks, in explosive offenses, being drafted on average in round four?<\/p>\n

    Prime Regression Candidates<\/h3>\n

    41. \u00a0Number of games Carolina Panthers tight end Greg Olsen<\/a><\/strong> has missed in the past nine seasons? Zero.
    \n42. From 2008 to 2015, Olsen averaged 5.6 touchdowns per year. Last season, Olsen only had three<\/em> receiving touchdowns.
    \n43. If     Greg Olsen<\/a> caught just two more touchdowns (still falling below his eight year average), he would have finished as the number one fantasy tight end ahead of Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce<\/a><\/strong>. #PositiveTouchdownRegression
    \n44. \u00a0Over the past two seasons Tennessee Titans tight end     Delanie Walker<\/a><\/strong> has seen his receptions drop from 94 to 65, his receiving yards drop from 1088 to 800, but his touchdowns increase<\/em> from six to seven.
    \n45. Walker had a 25.8 percent Red Zone Target Share in 2016, ranking eighth among all tight ends. In 2015, his Red Zone Target Share was 28.6 percent which ranked second among all tight ends.
    \n46. \u00a0Tennessee just signed     Eric Decker<\/a><\/strong>, who is 2015 ranked first among all wide receivers with a 38.2 percent Red Zone Target Share.
    \n47. Decker also ranked third in total Red Zone targets in 2014, and was first among all wide receivers in red zone targets in 2013.
    \n48. \u00a0    Delanie Walker<\/a> ranked fifth in total PPR fantasy points by a tight end. \u00a0If he caught the same number of touchdowns as Greg Olsen<\/a> (three), he would have fallen to 11th. #NegativeTouchdownRegression<\/p>\n

    Picking Up Where They Left Off?<\/h3>\n

    49. \u00a0Over the last five weeks of the 2016 season, Buffalo Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor<\/a> <\/strong>was sixth in fantasy points per game as per CBS scoring. He averaged 21.7 fantasy points per game in the four games he played.
    \n50. \u00a0Taylor was benched in Week 17 by the Bills, to     avoid a $30 million payout if he were to have gotten injured<\/a>.
    \n51. \u00a0    Tyrod Taylor<\/a> positional rushing rankings: carries (first), red zone carries (second), rushing yards (first), rushing touchdowns (first).
    \n52. Taylor’s current ADP is 129.47, or the 18th quarterback selected.
    \n53. The quarterback ranked fifth directly in front of Taylor? \u00a0Arizona’s     Carson Palmer<\/a><\/strong>.
    \n54. Palmer threw 11 touchdown passes over the final five weeks (one more than     Tom Brady<\/a><\/strong>), and averaged 22.1 fantasy points per game.
    \n55. Despite missing one game, Palmer tallied the fourth most     air yards<\/a> of any quarterback last season with 2,695. His pass attempt distance of 9.9 yards per attempt ranked fifth among all quarterbacks.
    \n56. Palmer is only one year removed from a season where he finished sixth among all quarterbacks with 20.1 fantasy points per game.
    \n57. In 2015, Palmer was also first in QBR (82.1), first in yards per attempt (8.7), second in passing touchdowns (35), and first in total air yards (2,897).
    \n58. Palmer’s current ADP is 143.73 as the 21st quarterback selected. He is one spot behind Jacksonville quarterback     Blake Bortles<\/a><\/strong> and two spots behind Philadelphia’s Carson Wentz<\/a><\/strong>.
    \n59. Kansas City tight end     Travis Kelce<\/a> had a great 2016 season. He finished with the most fantasy points among all tight ends.
    \n60. Kelce was first in receiving yards (1,125), yards after catch (634), and second in receptions (85).
    \n61. Over the last five weeks of last season, Kelce was equally as good, ranking third among all tight ends in total PPR fantasy points with 79.
    \n62. Kelce was still 23.3 fantasy points behind the top tight end during the last five weeks of the season, Philadelphia’s     Zach Ertz<\/a><\/strong>.
    \n63. \u00a0Over the last five weeks of the 2016 season,     Zach Ertz<\/a> had 40 receptions. That equates to eight receptions per game, which projects to 128 receptions for the season.
    \n64. \u00a0Despite missing two games, Ertz finished fifth in tight end targets, receptions, and receiving yards.
    \n65. \u00a0Ertz had a +30.5 percent     Target Premium<\/a> last season, which ranked fifth among all tight ends. He generated 30.5 percent more points per reception than the other Eagles pass receivers.
    \n66.     Travis Kelce<\/a>‘s ADP 32.50 is good value. Zach Ertz<\/a>‘s ADP of 103.5 is great value.<\/p>\n

    Towing The Line<\/h3>\n

    67. \u00a0Over the past three seasons, only three offensive lines have consistently ranked in the top 10 in run blocking efficiency as per PlayerProfiler<\/a>: \u00a0Dallas, Chicago, and New Orleans.
    \n68. \u00a0The lead running back of each team respectively in fantasy points per game in 2016:     Ezekiel Elliott<\/a><\/strong> (third), Jordan Howard<\/a> <\/strong>(ninth), Mark Ingram<\/a> <\/strong>(tenth).
    \n69. \u00a0Howard did not start the year as the lead running back, but ended the season with eight games of 100 total yards or more in the last nine weeks. In the other game? Howard had 99 total yards.
    \n70. \u00a0The lead running backs of each team in fantasy points per game in 2015:     Darren McFadden<\/a><\/strong> (17th), Matt Forte<\/a> <\/strong>(fourth), Mark Ingram<\/a> (second).
    \n71. \u00a0McFadden did not inherit the starting running back job until Week Seven. Over the last 11 games, he had 113 yards or more seven times.
    \n72. \u00a0The lead running backs of each team in fantasy points per game in 2014:     DeMarco Murra<\/strong>y<\/a> (second), Matt Forte<\/a> (fourth), Mark Ingram<\/a> (13th). \u00a0Ingram was still battling with Pierre Thomas<\/a><\/strong> (45 receptions).
    \n73. \u00a0A team that as never ranked in the top ten in run blocking efficiency over the last three years? Miami.
    \n74. \u00a0Dolphins running back     Jay Ajayi<\/a>‘s<\/strong> current ADP is 15.89 as the RB7. Jordan Howard<\/a>‘s ADP is 16.14 as the RB8.
    \n75. \u00a0There is no way one season of     Jay Ajayi<\/a> production should be valued over one season of Jordan Howard<\/a> production with a consistent top 10 run blocking offensive line over the past three seasons.<\/p>\n

    Red Zone Relocation<\/h3>\n

    76.\u00a0 As per ProFootballReference<\/a>, former Minnesota Vikings running back Matt Asiata<\/a><\/strong> was tied for third most rushing attempts (17) inside the five yard line.
    \n77.\u00a0 Former Oakland Raiders running back     Latavius Murray<\/a> was only one attempt behind Asiata with 16 attempts.
    \n78. Murray converted nine of those 16 attempts for touchdowns. He finished with 12 total touchdowns, tied for sixth among all NFL running backs.
    \n79. Murray is currently listed as the top running back on the Vikings depth chart. If he gets the majority of touches and receives the goal line work from Asiata, he should easily reach double digit touchdowns again.
    \n80.\u00a0     Latavius Murray<\/a>‘s current ADP is 138.6 as the RB46. There were only 10 running backs last year that had double digits touchdowns.<\/p>\n

    Chargers Red Zone Bonanza<\/h3>\n

    81.\u00a0 Los Angeles Chargers running back Melvin Gordon<\/a><\/strong> tied with Asiata with 17 rushing attempts from inside the five yard line.
    \n82. Los Angeles Chargers wideout     Tyrell Williams<\/a><\/strong> had eight receiving targets inside the five yard line last season.
    \n83.\u00a0 In addition, tight ends     Antonio Gates<\/a><\/strong> and<\/em> Hunter Henry<\/a><\/strong> also had seven receiving targets inside the five yard line. That is a lot of red zone passing attempts for quarterback\u00a0Philip Rivers<\/a><\/strong>.
    \n84.     Philip Rivers<\/a> ranked fourth in passing touchdowns (33), fifth in passing yards (4,390), sixth in Deep Ball Attempts (79), and third in red zone attempts (102).
    \n85.     Philip Rivers<\/a> current ADP is 117.82 as the QB15.<\/p>\n

    Why Choose if You Don’t Have To?<\/h3>\n

    86. The common thought among fantasy owners is that owning a team backfield is a waste, since there can only be one running back worthy of starting on a team each week.
    \n87. Last season,     Devonta Freeman<\/a><\/strong> produced 12 RB2 or better weeks in PPR scoring formats.
    \n88. \u00a0His teammate     Tevin Coleman<\/a><\/strong>, produced eight RB2 or better weeks in PPR scoring formats.
    \n89. Freeman and Coleman produced six weeks where they both<\/em> produced RB2 or better weeks in the same game.
    \n90. \u00a0Coleman missed three games, which made Freeman an automatic top fantasy start. Not only did both Falcons running backs produce, they served as each others insurance policy.
    \n91. There are several backfields in 2017 that could provide similar value. Tennessee, Washington, New England, New Orleans, and Atlanta again are all viable options for the     Team Backfield Drafting Strategy.<\/a><\/p>\n

    Bet On Cobb<\/h3>\n

    91. \u00a0Jacob Rickrode of RotoViz<\/a>, recently wrote an article explaining<\/a> that over the last 12 seasons, on average there will be 12 NFL teams that fail to have a WR2 or better. He explained that if you successfully target the quarterbacks that produce multiple top 24 wide receivers, you can gain a huge fantasy advantage.
    \n92. \u00a0Rickrode calculated that Green Bay quarterback     Aaron Rodgers<\/a><\/strong> has supported two WR2s in six of his eight healthy years.
    \n93. \u00a0The current ADP of the Green Bay wide receivers are as follows: \u00a0    Jordy Nelson<\/a><\/strong> 13.4 at WR6, Davante Adams<\/a> 35.88 at WR19, and Randall Cobb<\/a> <\/strong>78.9 at WR39.
    \n94. Last year, Cobb only played in 13 games yet finished 12th among all fantasy wide receivers with 10 red zone targets. Head coach Mike McCarthy<\/strong> already stated this month that     he wants to get Randall Cobb the ball more this season<\/a>.
    \n95. At his current ADP, Cobb is being drafted as a WR4. As long as Rodgers stays healthy, there will be two Green Bay wide receivers who will be WR2s or better. Why not take a chance on Cobb in round seven?
    \n96. \u00a0Cobb is currently being drafted after Tennessee rookie     Corey Davis<\/a><\/strong> and Carolina Panthers Kelvin Benjamin<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n

    Rookie RB Insanity<\/h3>\n

    97. Last year, I wrote about tempering expectations for rookie running backs<\/a> who were selected in the first round of the NFL draft. Over the last 11 seasons (2006-2016), the average production for rookie RBs is:\u00a0 175.4 rushing attempts, 766 rushing yards, 27.5 receptions, 234 receiving yards, and 6.9 total touchdowns.
    \n98.\u00a0 That includes     Todd Gurley<\/a>‘s<\/strong> outstanding 2015 performance for the Rams:\u00a0 1,294 total yards and 10 total touchdowns. It also includes Ezekiel Elliott<\/a>‘s amazing 2016 for the Cowboys: \u00a01,995 total yards and 16 total touchdowns.
    \n99. \u00a0Are we really expected to believe that Gurley and Elliott are the new normal and not just outliers?
    \n100. \u00a0There were two rookie running backs selected in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft:     Leonard Fournette<\/a><\/strong> and Christian McCaffrey<\/a><\/strong>. Their current respective ADPs? 23.1 (RB11) and 33.3 (RB13).<\/p>\n

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    Embed from Getty Images<\/a><\/div>\n