{"id":142615,"date":"2023-07-31T16:00:32","date_gmt":"2023-07-31T20:00:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/?p=142615"},"modified":"2023-07-30T12:04:52","modified_gmt":"2023-07-30T16:04:52","slug":"justin-jefferson-fantasy-football-outlook-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/2023\/07\/31\/justin-jefferson-fantasy-football-outlook-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Justin Jefferson Fantasy Football Outlook 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Justin Jefferson is widely considered to be the best wide receiver in the NFL, making him a prime fantasy football asset for 2023.<\/p>\n<p>A 2020 first-round pick out of LSU, Jefferson has gotten better every year in the NFL. Jefferson&#8217;s improvements have translated into fantasy finishes as WR6, WR4, and WR1.<\/p>\n<p>[metabet_core_side_odds_tile query=&#8221;nfl\/justin_jefferson\/player_145275&#8243; size=&#8221;350&#215;300&#8243; site_id=&#8221;lastwordonsports&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p>Jefferson is expected to break the bank in the next year, with contract talks upcoming. Entering 2023, what is the elite wideout&#8217;s fantasy football outlook?<\/p>\n<h2>Justin Jefferson Fantasy Football Outlook 2023<\/h2>\n<h3>Justin Jefferson Fantasy Football 2022 Review<\/h3>\n<p>Jefferson finished as the WR1 in every format in 2022, with 128 catches, 1,809 yards, and eight receiving touchdowns. With a 29% target share, he led the NFL in targets, yards, catches, red zone targets, and red zone catches.<\/p>\n<p>Jefferson averaged 106 yards per game on 11 targets per game. His 21.7 points per game were over a point higher than the next closest receiver and his 368.7 fantasy points were almost 30 points higher than the next best receiver.<\/p>\n<p>Consistency was key too. Jefferson scored 30 points in 35% of his games and 18 points in 55% of his games.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">First read targets leaders (per <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/FantasyPtsData?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">@FantasyPtsData<\/a> which is great!)<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Davante Adams, 39%<br \/>&#8211; Cooper Kupp, 38%<br \/>&#8211; Ja\u2019Marr Chase, 37%<br \/>&#8211; Tyreek Hill, 37%<br \/>&#8211; Stefon Diggs, 35%<br \/>&#8211; CeeDee Lamb, 34%<br \/>&#8211; Amon-Ra St. Brown, 34%<br \/>&#8211; Justin Jefferson, 34%<br \/>&#8211; DeAndre Hopkins, 34%<br \/>&#8211; Garrett Wilson, 33%<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MichaelFFlorio\/status\/1682138517634441218?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">July 20, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>As expected, Jefferson was a consistent target hog with 11 targets in 65% of his games and 13 targets in 41%. Jefferson&#8217;s best stretch came in Weeks 14-16, where he averaged 31.6 points per game after three straight 30-point games.<\/p>\n<p>He accomplished all of this with five games under 12 PPR points, scary to think that there is still room to grow.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Justin Jefferson is a big rebound regression candidate<\/p>\n<p>While he finished as WR1 in 2022, he did so on 8 touchdowns with 11.1 expected touchdowns.<\/p>\n<p>Only caught 2 touchdown passes on 14 targets in the end zone.<\/p>\n<p>So far and away the WR1.<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Formerly known as AOD (@McNamaraDynasty) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/McNamaraDynasty\/status\/1683516048975306769?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">July 24, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h3>Justin Jefferson 2023 Preview<\/h3>\n<p>The Vikings lost Adam Thielen to free agency this off-season and cut Dalvin Cook a few weeks ago. With the loss of Cook the Vikings are expected to pass even more than they did in 2022.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/2023\/06\/09\/alexander-mattison-fantasy-football-outlook-dalvin-cook\/\" target=\"_self\">Alexander Mattison<\/a> will take over as the lead back, but he is not expected to get the same type of touches that Cook commanded.<\/p>\n<p>The Vikings made up for the loss of Thielen by adding rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison out of USC. Addison was recently cited for a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/nfl\/story\/_\/id\/38042993\/vikings-rookie-jordan-addison-cited-going-140-55-mph-zone\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">traffic-related incident<\/a>, but it is too early to know if he will be disciplined for that.<\/p>\n<p>T.J. Hockensen is coming into his first full season with the Vikings, but neither him or Addison should affect Jefferson&#8217;s target share all that much. The loss of Thielen, however, is a huge boost for Jefferson.<\/p>\n<p>Since Jefferson entered the league, Thielen has led the Vikings in redzone catches, yards, and touchdowns. Thielen has scored nine more redzone touchdowns than Jefferson on eight fewer targets.<\/p>\n<p>Taking away away Jefferson&#8217;s rookie season, Thielen has still led the Vikings in redzone targets the last two seasons. The veteran receiver accomplished all this while playing in five fewer games.<\/p>\n<p>Thus, Thielen leaving the Vikings is a blessing in disguise for Jefferson&#8217;s fantasy outlook this season.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">2022 Top 10 WR Red Zone Targets: <\/p>\n<p>1. Justin Jefferson (28) <br \/>2. D.K. Metcalf (27) <br \/>3. Ja\u2019Marr Chase (24) <br \/>4. Stefon Diggs (23) <br \/>5. Davante Adams (22) <br \/>6. Christian Kirk (22) <br \/>7. Amon Ra St. Brown (21) <br \/>8. Adam Thielen (21)<br \/>9. Garrett Wilson (19) <br \/>10. Zay Jones (18)<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Snoog&#39;s Fantasy HQ (@FFSnoog) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/FFSnoog\/status\/1680648943980478465?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">July 16, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h3>Average Draft Position<\/h3>\n<p>Since the off-season began, Jefferson has been the projected number one overall pick in every format. That has not changed, and probably will not change.<\/p>\n<p>With seven wide receivers currently having a round-one ADP (average draft position), taking Jefferson number-one overall is great value.<\/p>\n<p>The first-round running backs (Christian Mccaffery, Austin Ekeler, Bijan Robinson, and Saquon Barkley) all have injury concerns or are unproven at this point in time.<\/p>\n<p>Cooper Kupp has a great argument to go ahead of Jefferson. However, his and Matthew Stafford&#8217;s injury concerns are what makes Jefferson the safest and highest ceiling player this year in fantasy.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">WR leaders in top-10 finish % over the last two years:<\/p>\n<p>1. Cooper Kupp (65%)<br \/>&#8212;<br \/>2. Justin Jefferson (44%)<br \/>3. Davante Adams (42%)<br \/>T4. Tyreek Hill (38%)<br \/>T4. Deebo Samuel (38%)<br \/>6. Stefon Diggs (36%)<br \/>7. Ja&#39;Marr Chase (34%)<\/p>\n<p>Every WR on this list top-8 by ADP \u2013 except Deebo (WR17)<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/GrahamBarfield\/status\/1666281600227713025?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">June 7, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Main Photo: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Justin Jefferson is the consensus first pick entering the 2023 fantasy football season. Will he meet those expectations?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4247,"featured_media":143146,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[59,26],"tags":[294,6181],"class_list":["post-142615","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fantasy","category-vikings","tag-fantasy-football","tag-justin-jefferson"],"modified_by":"Curtis Leung","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/142615","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4247"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=142615"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/142615\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/143146"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=142615"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=142615"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=142615"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}