{"id":140501,"date":"2023-04-19T15:53:38","date_gmt":"2023-04-19T19:53:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/?p=140501"},"modified":"2023-04-19T15:53:38","modified_gmt":"2023-04-19T19:53:38","slug":"packers-should-avoid-bijon-robinson-in-the-first-round","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/2023\/04\/19\/packers-should-avoid-bijon-robinson-in-the-first-round\/","title":{"rendered":"Green Bay Packers Should Avoid Bijan Robinson in the First Round"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bijan Robinson<\/a> will be over-drafted, and the Green Bay Packers<\/a> should not be the team doing that drafting. Some teams will jump to draft Bijan Robinson in the first round, Running Backs, in general, is a position that gets over-valued. Robinson is just the latest version of this phenomenon.<\/p>\n

Avoid Bijan Robinson in the First Round<\/h2>\n

This has been a hotly contested matter among Packers writers.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/BadgerNoonan\/status\/1648315020332220421?s=20<\/p>\n

Getting directly to the point, Paul Noonan is exactly right.<\/p>\n

Avoid Early Running Backs<\/h3>\n

One of the first things to review is the usage of Robinson and the team around him. Roschon Johnson<\/a> is also coming out in this Draft. Bijan was clearly the lead back, getting 258 carries to Johnson\u2019s 93, but the comparison is pretty stable.\u00a0 Robinson averaged 6.1 yards per carry, and Johnson countered with 6.0 yards per carry.<\/p>\n

Passing favored Robinson, but not to a huge extent. Robinson caught 19 passes and Johnson had 14. Robins had a considerable edge in yards per catch (16.5 compared to 9.1), but the sample size was rather small. Overall, Robinson averaged 6.8 yards to touch, and Johnson had 6.4. Considering Robinson out-touched Johnson 277 to 107 (meaning Johnson had just 27.8% of the total volume), the 20-to-67 touchdown difference is basically nothing. That would mean at 27.8% of the total touched, Johnson accounted for 23.1% of the touchdowns.<\/p>\n

Historical Context<\/h3>\n

I reviewed back over the Running Backs drafted in 2017. There have been nine first-round Running Backs in that time.\u00a0 They have been, generally, fairly productive. So far, only Josh Jacobs<\/a> and Najeh Harris have managed to be the leading rushers in their respective classes.<\/p>\n

Clyde Edwards-Helaire<\/a> has been out-rushed by D\u2019Andre Swift (second round), Jonathan Taylor<\/a> (second round), A.J. Dillon (second Round), and Antonio Gibson (third round). Other players in the 2020 draft, like Cam Akers<\/a> and J.K. Dobbins<\/a>, have similar numbers when adjusted for volume.<\/p>\n

Saquon Barkley<\/a> has put up some great numbers. Still, Nick Chubb<\/a> is a second-round back who has over 2,000 yards more. That 2018 draft also saw the Seattle Seahawks reach for Rashaad Penny<\/a> and the New England Patriots pick Sony Michel<\/a>. Both were nice players who were relegated to roles behind stronger Running Backs.<\/p>\n

2017 Draft Class Example<\/h3>\n

Even a strong first round class in 2017 does not support the early pick. Leonard Fournette<\/a> and Christian McCaffery both went in the first round and have put up significant numbers. McCaffery has 60 touchdowns to date.\u00a0 McCaffery has 8,482 total yards on 1,467 touches (5.78 yards\/touch). Yet, fifth-round selection Aaron Jones<\/a> has 7,127 yards on 1,277 touches (5.58 yards\/touch).\u00a0 Jones has also matched McCaffery\u2019s 60 touchdowns. Both fall short of third-round selection Alvin Kamara<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The 2017 draft had top-end talent in the first round. Still, the second round featured Dalvin Cook<\/a>. Cook leads all 2017 Running Backs in rushing yards to date.\u00a0 Cincinnati Bengals also found Joe Mixon<\/a> in the second round that year.<\/p>\n

The third round was led by Kamara. Kamara leads all Running Backs in this class in touchdowns and total yards.\u00a0 Additionally, Kareem Hunt<\/a>, D\u2019Onta Foreman, and James Connor were still available in the third round.<\/p>\n

One other notable name is Chris Carson<\/a>. He has been very effective back in the NFL and was not selected until the seventh round.\u00a0 Contrast this against Penny getting selected in the first round by the same team, just one year later.<\/p>\n

B.V.A. over B.P.A.<\/h3>\n

\u201cBPA\u201d (Best Player Available) has been a commonly used term in NFL Draft coverage over the last few years. Teams throw this term around as if they are always just seeking the \u201cbest players\u201d at any point regardless of needs.<\/p>\n

The reality of the situation is teams need to focus on the Best Value Available. When you can get Running Backs up and down the board but Offensive Tackles are at a premium, then the value matters. Drafting Bijan Robinson in the first round does not provide the sort of value that waiting does.<\/p>\n

Using 2017 as an example, the Packers traded out of the first round and got Kevin King<\/a>, and added Aaron Jones<\/a> in the fifth round. The Panthers selected McCaffery with the eighth overall pick and then got Cornerback Corn Elder<\/a> in the fifth. Corn Elder<\/a> lasted four years and started one game.\u00a0 Say what you will about Kevin King<\/a>, but the Packers got better value.<\/p>\n

Even compared to the Jacksonville Jaguars selection of Leonard Fournette<\/a> fourth overall. Jacksonville ended up selecting Blair Brown<\/a> in the fifth round. He started two game and was cut after two seasons.\u00a0 The value of Running Backs is not tied to overall production but to the relative production of waiting.<\/p>\n

Other Positions<\/h3>\n

Cornerback is a position where drafting early matters. The 2017 draft is a key example of this same phenomenon.\u00a0 High-end talent in the first round. Marshon Lattimore<\/a>, Marlon Humphrey, Adoree Jackson<\/a>, and Tre\u2019Davious White were all first-round picks that year. The second round dropped off to names like Kevin King<\/a>, Quincy Wilson<\/a> and Teez Tabor<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In the fourth round and beyond, there are only two players who have managed to play in 70 games or more. Those players are Demontae Kazee and Jamal Agnew<\/a>.<\/p>\n

This situation is very similar among Edge Rushers.<\/p>\n

Stop the Running Back Madness<\/h3>\n

Bijan Robinson is really good. This is not a critique of his talent so much as a critique of the draft principle. The 2019 Raiders (then in Oakland), could have taken\u00a0 Deebo Samuel<\/a>, Marquise Brown<\/a>, or Montez Sweat<\/a> in the first round and still grabbed Devin Singletary<\/a>, David Montgomery<\/a>, or Tony Pollard<\/a> later. The 2018 New York Giants could have drafted Josh Allen<\/a>, Roquan Smith<\/a>, or Quenton Nelson<\/a> in the first round and still draft Nick Chubb<\/a> in the second round.<\/p>\n

If the Packers select Jaxon Smith-Njigba<\/a>, Paris Johnson<\/a> Jr., or Myles Murphy<\/a> in the first round, they can still get a valuable Running Back later.\u00a0 Roschon Johnson<\/a> will be around yet. Players like Eric Gray<\/a> or DeWayne McBride<\/a> also give considerable value in the following rounds. There are other, more valuable positions<\/a> of need.<\/p>\n

Main Photo: Aaron E. Martinez – USA TODAY NETWORK<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

First Round Running Backs are not worth the value spent. The Packers should avoid Bijan Robinson in the first round.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1726,"featured_media":140506,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1647,54,25],"tags":[9546,9919,7460],"class_list":["post-140501","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nfl-draft","category-editorials","category-packers","tag-2023-nfl-draft","tag-bijon-robinson","tag-green-bay-packers-news"],"modified_by":"Will Koshover, Editor","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/140501","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1726"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=140501"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/140501\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/140506"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=140501"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=140501"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=140501"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}