{"id":126554,"date":"2021-12-23T15:14:32","date_gmt":"2021-12-23T20:14:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/?p=126554"},"modified":"2021-12-23T15:14:32","modified_gmt":"2021-12-23T20:14:32","slug":"chicago-bears-measuring-justin-fields-progress-is-a-fools-errand","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/2021\/12\/23\/chicago-bears-measuring-justin-fields-progress-is-a-fools-errand\/","title":{"rendered":"Chicago Bears: Measuring Justin Fields&#8217; Progress is a Fool&#8217;s Errand"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/category\/nfl-teams\/bears\/\" target=\"_self\">Chicago Bears<\/a> fans, signs of progress from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/F\/FielJu00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Justin Fields<\/a> are tantamount to actual wins at this point in a lost season. See, because if he progresses enough to look like \u201cthe guy\u201d next season, then the season wasn\u2019t lost. Right? Not quite, and it doesn\u2019t have anything to do with the Bears being officially eliminated from the playoffs following their loss on Monday.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Many viewed the Bears postseason chances like quarks. We knew they existed but they are so minuscule that we could never be sure.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">With Fields, the data can pull you in different directions depending on what you are looking at.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Chicago Bears: The Pitfalls of Trying to Measure Justin Fields&#8217; Progress<\/h2>\n<h3><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Like a Band-Aid<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There have been plenty of poor statistics to come out of Fields\u2019 season. So much so that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/nfl\/story\/_\/id\/32890036\/gabbert-clausen-rosen-oh-my-chicago-bears-qb-justin-fields-dubious-company-amid-rough-rookie-season\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Kevin Siefert wrote<\/a> about how the 11th-overall pick in last April\u2019s NFL Draft compares to some of the worst quarterbacks to draw starts in league history. It has become the perfect \u201ctold you so\u201d memento for those ready to bail after 10 starts in 12 games.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">At the heart of the article is QBR, a metric in which Fields \u2013 and Zach Wilson whom the article only mentions in passing \u2013 is on pace for historic numbers of the bad kind.\u00a0 It also mentions his fumbles, his tendency to hold onto the ball, and, in general, the wild swings in his \u201cwow\u201d plays.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">All of those are big areas of concern for any quarterback, let alone one selected just outside of the top-10.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the end, the article is simply suggesting that while Fields certainly <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">can<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> prove to be better than his numbers suggest, it would seem very unlikely given the historical data. And Siefert isn\u2019t alone. A simple search on Twitter will bring up any number of graphics and charts depicting just how bad Fields has been.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It is almost as if the loudest voices demanding Fields be given a shot \u2013 even after it was known he wasn\u2019t given a fair shake in the leadup to the season \u2013 are now trying to go in the opposite direction.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">I thought <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/justnfields?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">@justnfields<\/a> played really well overall last night:<br \/>-less sacks<br \/>-play faster in pocket<\/p>\n<p>But I really like just the subtle nuance of this play\u2014doing plays like this consistently\u2014on top of the it play talent\u20142022!! <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ChicagoBears?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">@ChicagoBears<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/UN09UkWA19\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/UN09UkWA19<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Dan Orlovsky (@danorlovsky7) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/danorlovsky7\/status\/1473317051536224265?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">December 21, 2021<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A Flawed Argument<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Immediately, the article creates a false comparison based solely on the (many poor) results. Sure, it attempts to soften the blow by explaining some of the few things the Bears have done to help or the many they\u2019ve done to hurt. But it still fails to encapsulate two critical pieces that go on to shape the entire narrative of the piece.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">First, Fields left Ohio State far more accomplished than any of the three washouts mentioned in Jimmy Clausen, Blaine Gabbert, and Josh Rosen.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Both Gabbert and Rosen were each selected with the 10th pick by the Jacksonville Jaguars and Arizona Cardinals, respectively. Clausen was a second-round pick by the Carolina Panther but was one of the top-rated passers in his class as well.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The issue is Gabbert played for the Jacksonville Jaguars who might be the face of tumultuousness in the NFL. Rosen\u2019s Cards wound up getting the first-overall selection and a new head coach in Kliff Kingsbury who had eyes on one Kyler Murray. Clausen got the heave-ho in favor of the Cam Newton phenomenon.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">All three of their drafting franchises underwent coaching changes the next season, something that would count as working against Fields.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That is where the nuance of this discussion gets lost. There are many factors at play here. Not the least of which is the perception of Fields relative to the others that Siefert\u2019s piece highlighted.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>[pickup_prop id=&#8221;17557&#8243;]<\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Perception vs. Reality<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There weren\u2019t many proclaiming those three to be saviors for a franchise. At least, not as much as they were the best of what was a weak class. Fields did experience a slide but it was believed to mostly be related to his being diagnosed with epilepsy; a condition he said he\u2019s dealt with for years with no impact on his play.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Even with that, he tested off of the charts both physically and mentally.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There is also that mention of Wilson. The article states that only the aforementioned three passers were the only ones to put up worse numbers than Fields\u2019 if the season ended today.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But it also clearly states that Wilson, who has also made 10 starts, has a worse QBR.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The reasons behind Wilson (and to some extent Trevor Lawrence) are as multi-faceted as the faces behind the criticisms of Fields.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Numerous counter-arguments shine a positive light on what Fields has done. There is his <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/PFF_Brad\/status\/1473304418682560521\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">big-time throw percentage<\/a> and the percentage of his passes thrown beyond the first-down marker. Or the video above from Dan Orlovsky speaking of the subtle growth Fields displayed in that Monday Night Football loss.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Highest percentage of wide receiver routes where the player was deemed to be open (PFF)<\/p>\n<p>1. Chiefs (54%)<br \/>2. Packers (49%)<br \/>3. Rams (48%)<br \/>&#8230;<br \/>32. Bears (36%)<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Ihartitz\/status\/1473378589794000908?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">December 21, 2021<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h3>Wait and See on Fields&#8217; Progress<\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the end, Fields is a case where we need to wait and see. He didn\u2019t come into a situation that anyone felt was conducive to developing a quarterback. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/T\/TrubMi00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Mitchell Trubisky<\/a> flamed out in this town and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/F\/FoleNi00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Nick Foles<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/D\/DaltAn00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Andy Dalton<\/a> looked less than serviceable under <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/coaches\/NagyMa0.htm\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Matt Nagy<\/a>. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There was no chance a rookie was coming in and overcoming all the ails we witnessed from this regime. At the same time, the fumbles and internal clock are Fields\u2019 issues to correct. Those are things that can be corrected, though. The innate abilities he\u2019s shown cannot.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And yet, \u201cinnate abilities\u201d don\u2019t win enough games. If the Bears can\u2019t help Fields reach his potential, they&#8217;ll be in the same position they have been for decades. That is regardless of who they hire to be the next coach.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">He certainly isn\u2019t reaching that potential this season under these circumstances. And any new scheme is going to have an adjustment period all its own. That means there could be more bumps along the way.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We won\u2019t truly know how good (or bad) he will be until he gets a fresh start under a staff that isn\u2019t essentially full of lame ducks.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Main Photo:<br \/>\n<a id=\"QlKj-QqgTNtYF-FEX2KGuQ\" class=\"gie-single\" style=\"color: #a7a7a7; text-decoration: none; font-weight: normal !important; border: none; display: inline-block;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.gettyimages.com\/detail\/1360118374\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Embed from Getty Images<\/a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'QlKj-QqgTNtYF-FEX2KGuQ',sig:'k-MixdZogoG7VFlAGvdv2HFghUBNZsBYm5kM32W_RMc=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'1360118374',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});<\/script><script src='\/\/embed-cdn.gettyimages.com\/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For Chicago Bears fans, signs of progress from Justin Fields are tantamount to actual wins at this point in a lost season.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2879,"featured_media":126558,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[54,23],"tags":[854,7657,7544,6990,3385,2265,997],"class_list":["post-126554","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-editorials","category-bears","tag-andy-dalton","tag-bears-featured","tag-chicago-bears-roster","tag-justin-fields","tag-matt-nagy","tag-mitchell-trubisky","tag-nick-foles"],"modified_by":"Josh Buckhalter","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126554","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2879"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=126554"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126554\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/126558"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=126554"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=126554"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=126554"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}