{"id":10240,"date":"2017-01-13T14:37:05","date_gmt":"2017-01-13T19:37:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonprofootball.com\/?p=10240"},"modified":"2017-01-13T14:37:05","modified_gmt":"2017-01-13T19:37:05","slug":"jordy-nelson-injury-packers-playoffs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/2017\/01\/13\/jordy-nelson-injury-packers-playoffs\/","title":{"rendered":"Jordy Nelson Injury and the Packers Chances"},"content":{"rendered":"

Traditionally, the Packers are cautious in terms of their medical evaluations. \u00a0Players are never rushed back from injury in Green Bay. \u00a0Sam Shields<\/a> has been out all season with a diagnosed concussion. \u00a0This is also the team that did not even give JerMichael Finley<\/strong> or Nick Collins<\/a><\/strong>, Pro Bowl caliber players, a chance to return from serious injuries.<\/p>\n

Now comes word that Jordy Nelson<\/a><\/strong> has at least two broken ribs.\u00a0\u00a0The Packers took a wait and see approach, but it appears Nelson is now ruled\u00a0out for the Divisional Playoff game.\u00a0Here are some key factors to remember that give Green Bay hope.<\/p>\n

Jordy Nelson Injury and the Packers Chances<\/h2>\n

Jordy Nelson Missed Most of the Game Last Week<\/h3>\n

Jordy Nelson was knocked out of the game on a deep pass to the offense’s left with 11:14 left in the first half.\u00a0 At the time of the injury the Giants were leading 3-0.\u00a0 The Giants scored another field goal on the very next drive and made it 6-0.\u00a0 At the point Nelson left, he had only been targeted three times for one catch.\u00a0 After that start, the Packers outscored the Giants 38-7.<\/p>\n

The Giants have the fourth-ranked pass defense according to Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).\u00a0 Additionally, the Giants were the third-ranked rush defense using this metric.\u00a0 The Giants have a great defense.\u00a0 These points did not come against an inferior opponent.\u00a0 Dallas, on the other hand, is ranked 18th against the pass and 8th against the run (15th in overall defense).<\/p>\n

The Packers did not accidentally score 38 points either.\u00a0 There was no fluke punt return or defensive touchdown.\u00a0 Yes, the fluke third Hail Mary touchdown pass in just over a year, but still 31 points off sustained drives.\u00a0 Nelson had no impact on the Packers in the Wild Card match up and the offense continued to roll without him.<\/p>\n

Rise of the Rest<\/h3>\n

The narrative in the Packers’ 2015 season was blaming the loss of Jordy Nelson for the struggles the offense.\u00a0 The story was that no one else was ever getting open.\u00a0 This was an over-simplistic take that all the networks accepted.\u00a0\u00a0Ty Montgomery<\/a><\/strong> missed almost the entire season.\u00a0 Randall Cobb<\/a><\/strong> and Davante Adams<\/a><\/strong> also\u00a0had to deal with injuries and missed time.\u00a0 Still, the emergence of several other players in the meantime has been a boon to the Packers offense.<\/p>\n

Davante Adams has blossomed into the player that people hoped for when he flashed talent in his rookie season of 2014.\u00a0 Everyone knows that Nelson came back from injury to lead the NFL with 14 touchdowns, but only Packers fans might have noticed that Adams is actually tied for second with 12 touchdown grabs this year.\u00a0 Adams had 75 catches for 997 yards this season and has passed Randall Cobb as the second target in this offense.\u00a0\u00a0He has been finding separation this year and made plays once he had the ball.\u00a0 Adams has a better average yards after the catch (5.2 yards)\u00a0than Nelson this year (3.7 yards).\u00a0 For further comparison, Julio Jones<\/a><\/strong> averaged\u00a04.7 and Odell\u00a0Beckham, Jr.<\/strong> also average 5.2.<\/p>\n

Without Nelson last year, Cobb was thrust into the top receiver roll and struggled some.\u00a0 Having the ability to stick in the underneath routes and draw the second or third corner back has helped Cobb’s performances as well.<\/p>\n

Addition of Jared Cook<\/a><\/h3>\n

The biggest difference is the addition of a healthy Jared Cook<\/strong>. With Cook on the field the Packers are 9-2 (counting the playoff win).\u00a0 Without Cook, the Packers are 2-4.\u00a0 The difference between a Packers offense with Cook and one without can be best described in Aaron Rodgers<\/a>‘<\/strong> numbers.\u00a0 In the eleven games with Cook, Rodgers completed 248 of 375 passes (66.1%) for 2,997 yards and had a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 29:1.\u00a0 That would be good for a Rating of 115.1.\u00a0 However, without Cook, Rodgers completed 178 of his 275 passes for 1,793 yards and had a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 15:6.\u00a0 That is a much weaker Rating of 92.3.\u00a0 To be very clear, the Packers have played six games against top-ten DVOA pass defenses and five of those were games with Cook.\u00a0 It was not a boost due to diminished competition.<\/p>\n

Aaron Rodgers Is on a Tear<\/h3>\n

The biggest single factor in evaluating the Packers at this exact moment in history is the historic play of Aaron Rodgers.\u00a0 Since losing to the Tennessee Titans in Week 10, Rodgers has completed 193 of 281 passes (68.7%) for 2,380 yards, 22 touchdowns and no interceptions.\u00a0 That equals a QB rating of 120.7.\u00a0 Rodgers has now throw four touchdowns in three straight games.\u00a0 Two games against top five pass defenses (in all metrics) and a road game with a divisional foe.<\/p>\n

There is no way to compare the Packers team that played the Cowboys in Week Five with this current version.\u00a0 The loss of Jordy Nelson cannot help but change the complexion of the Packers’ attack.\u00a0 Still,\u00a0the Packers offense has shown that it is still explosive without him.<\/p>\n

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