{"id":100325,"date":"2020-12-22T05:54:46","date_gmt":"2020-12-22T10:54:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/?p=100325"},"modified":"2021-03-08T16:57:08","modified_gmt":"2021-03-08T21:57:08","slug":"kansas-city-chiefs-are-overrated","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/2020\/12\/22\/kansas-city-chiefs-are-overrated\/","title":{"rendered":"The Kansas City Chiefs Are Overrated"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>No matter where you look, the <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/nfl-teams2\/chiefs\/\" target=\"_self\">Kansas City Chiefs<\/a> are the favorites to win Super Bowl LV. It\u2019s hard to blame the masses for this logic, as they have an elite offensive trio of <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/M\/MahoPa00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Patrick Mahomes<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/H\/HillTy00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Tyreek Hill<\/a><\/strong>, and <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/K\/KelcTr00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Travis Kelce<\/a><\/strong> operating under arguably the best offensive mind in football in <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/R\/ReidAn20.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Andy Reid<\/a><\/strong>. However, despite their record and their Super Bowl odds, this team isn\u2019t some unstoppable juggernaut. Kansas City is probably the best team in the league, but the Chiefs have some flaws that make them a little overrated.<\/p>\n<h2>The Kansas City Chiefs Are Really Good, But Overrated<\/h2>\n<p>First, let\u2019s start by addressing that the 2020 Kansas City Chiefs are a very good team. If I had to bet on one team to win the Super Bowl, I\u2019d probably pick them. However, fans and win probability models alike think that they\u2019re the NFL\u2019s best team by a comfortable margin, and that isn\u2019t necessarily true. 538 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/friscojosh\/status\/1340825638215634944?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">gives Kansas City a 35% chance to win the Super Bowl<\/a>, while the next closest team is at 18%. Put simply, that\u2019s an absurd level of confidence in a team that doesn\u2019t truly deserve it.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">There&#39;s a lot of variance involved in the NFL etc etc but I just don&#39;t see how any team except for maybe &#8212; MAYBE &#8212; the Packers can beat this Chiefs team<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/benbbaldwin\/status\/1340820219498000384?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">December 21, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s start with the easy stuff \u2013 the record. Right now, Kansas City sits comfortably atop the NFL with a sterling 13-1 record. However, not all wins are created equal, as shown by the past six weeks of action. After dismantling the New York Jets in early November, Kansas City has not won a game by more than a single possession. In total, the Chiefs are 6-0 yet have won those six contests by just a combined 24 points, and never by more than six.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s obviously better to win than lose, but winning like this isn\u2019t particularly sustainable. Historically speaking, there isn\u2019t a consistent way to win one-score games over an extended period of time. Even though Kansas City went undefeated over this stretch, they probably shouldn\u2019t have.<\/p>\n<p>Additionally, a look at Kansas City\u2019s offensive and defensive efficiency shows that they\u2019re not that much better than the other elite NFL teams. According to RBSDM.com, Kansas City is actually slightly worse than the Green Bay Packers on a per-play basis. Additionally, the Tennessee Titans are in the same tier, while the Buffalo Bills aren\u2019t that far back.<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/DLPatsThoughts\/status\/1341143719618220039?s=20<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Tennessee falls back when filtering by win probability, but GB is still there. Same deal with 1st and 2nd downs, except the Browns somehow join the elite group too <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/HpnwzI6gD9\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/HpnwzI6gD9<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Dave Latham, Lifelong Bucs Fan (@DLPatsThoughts) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DLPatsThoughts\/status\/1341144764691918849?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">December 21, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h3>Possible Seeding Advantages<\/h3>\n<p>Of course, winning in the postseason is about more than just being a good team. Playoff seeding can go a long way in determining the eventual Super Bowl champion, especially now that only one team has a first-round bye. Barring something completely unexpected, Kansas City should earn the top seed, which will obviously improve their chances at winning it all.<\/p>\n<p>Kansas City\u2019s talent combined with their seeding makes them the clear AFC favorite, but it doesn\u2019t explain the disparity between them and the Green Bay Packers. Like the Chiefs, the Packers have full control of the top seed and, as previously mentioned, are just as good as Kansas City on a per-play basis. However, despite the similarities, 538 only gives the Packers a 13% chance of winning the Super Bowl.<\/p>\n<p>This implies that the oddsmakers believe that the AFC is a relative cakewalk compared to the NFC. However, facts do not support this assumption. If the Chiefs want to make it to the Super Bowl, they\u2019ll need to take down some combination of the <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/nfl-teams2\/bills\/\" target=\"_self\">Buffalo Bills<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/nfl-teams2\/browns\/\" target=\"_self\">Cleveland Browns<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/nfl-teams2\/ravens\/\" target=\"_self\">Baltimore Ravens<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/nfl-teams2\/titans\/\" target=\"_self\">Tennessee Titans<\/a>. All of these teams are at or near the top of the tier rankings and are anything but easy competition.<\/p>\n<p>The Packers, meanwhile, face a much easier NFC. The New Orleans Saints are a fantastic team, but <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/B\/BreeDr00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Drew Brees<\/a><\/strong> is clearly running on fumes. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are as talented as any team in the league, but they\u2019re wildly inconsistent and should struggle to beat the Packers in a rematch. The Los Angeles Rams just lost to the New York Jets and the NFC East is the NFC East. This leaves the Seattle Seahawks as Green Bay\u2019s primary threat, and that team can only go as far as <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/players\/W\/WilsRu00.htm?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Russell Wilson<\/a><\/strong> can carry them.<\/p>\n<p>Ultimately, there is no reason for the Kansas City Chiefs to be such overwhelming favorites for the Super Bowl. Their overall level of play isn\u2019t <em>THAT<\/em> much better than the other elite teams, and their playoff seeding can only explain away so much. This is still a good team that should compete late into the season, but the Chiefs are a little overrated.<\/p>\n<p>Main photo:<br \/>\n<a id=\"odVz0_LcRm5KrjE9Ajokiw\" class=\"gie-single\" style=\"color: #a7a7a7; text-decoration: none; font-weight: normal !important; border: none; display: inline-block;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.gettyimages.com\/detail\/1287130952\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Embed from Getty Images<\/a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'odVz0_LcRm5KrjE9Ajokiw',sig:'DcI7ShgPOcZYPJJJsGeZi8SPTeGYY-ZSOJX5P8vecxI=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'1287130952',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});<\/script><script src='\/\/embed-cdn.gettyimages.com\/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Kansas City Chiefs are overrated: Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are a great team, but they&#8217;re not as good as oddsmakers think they are.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2376,"featured_media":100328,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[188,371,7288,7326,1576,237,339,297],"class_list":["post-100325","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-chiefs","tag-andy-reid","tag-drew-brees","tag-green-bay-packers-roster","tag-kansas-city-chiefs-roster","tag-patrick-mahomes","tag-russell-wilson","tag-travis-kelce","tag-tyreek-hill"],"modified_by":"David Latham, Managing Editor","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100325","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2376"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=100325"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100325\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/100328"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=100325"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=100325"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=100325"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}