Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud have both received QB1 hype in the 2023 NFL Draft. We break down the debate between them here.
Two weeks away from night one of the 2023 NFL Draft, the number one overall pick is still very much up in the air. With the Panthers trading up to number one overall, it’s set in stone that a quarterback will go number one. So, that begs the question of who is QB1 in the 2023 NFL draft class?
Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud were each considered the favorites to be the selection at this time last year and here we are a year later they’re still the two favorites. When the Panthers traded up to number one, Stroud became the favorite, but Young has taken the lead in recent days. Currently, the odds are listed at Young at -120 and Stroud at -105.
Both quarterbacks were exceptional in college and have promising futures in store for themselves in the NFL. Thus, they have generated split opinions on who is better among media analysts, fans, as well as most importantly NFL personnel.
Anthony Richardson is another quarterback getting some consideration for the top overall pick. Richardson is a good prospect with the traits to develop into a star in this league, but he is too inaccurate at this stage of his career for teams to feel confident enough to draft him number one overall. With that said, this article will revolve around the debate between Young and Stroud to be QB1 in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Who is QB1 in the 2023 NFL Draft?
Mental Processing/Poise
Bryce Young
An essential and arguably most important component of being a quarterback in the NFL is the mental side. This includes being able to read defenses, having a strong mentality to battle through adversity, staying poised in big games and moments, as well as be a leader on and off the field. That is a lot to put on the plate of such a young player, but Young is built for it. Young has shown an ability to work through multiple reads and allocate the ball where he needs to.
He avoids mistakes as well or better than any quarterback in this class. In each of the last two seasons, Young’s turnover-worthy play percentage was just 2%. This is a very good percentage and makes him project well to the NFL in that area. He’s also someone who has the mentality you like as a quarterback. Young was a two-year captain at Alabama, showing his abilities as a teammate and leader.
Young is also someone who is poised in big moments. This is shown in the Iron Bowl in 2021 when after struggling to move the ball all game, Young was able to lead an amazing 12-play, 97-yard drive in 71 seconds to send the game to overtime. The Crimson Tide were able to come away with the win in four overtimes to keep their season alive. In the NFL, quarterbacks are asked to lead drives in big moments all the time, so Young showing such poise in that game bodes well for his projection to the NFL.
C.J. Stroud
Stroud has been the leader of one of college football’s best offenses in college football in each of the past two seasons. He did a good job of making reads and distributing the ball at Ohio State and this was shown in the anticipation on his passes. One play in particular that stands out is a throw to Smith-Njigba over the middle of the field against Indiana in 2021 where drops a dime between three Indiana defenders, finding the only potential throwing window for a big gain.
Stroud did a good job of avoiding turnovers as he threw just 12 interceptions over the last two seasons. He did get rather lucky at times however as there were times that he did make some poor decisions on where to throw the ball and avoided interceptions when defenders dropped passes.
Another concern for Stroud in this area is the difference between operating Ohio State’s offense compared to an NFL offense. At OSU, the supporting cast was elite, so going to an NFL team may be a tougher transition right out of the gate for him than most quarterbacks.
Slight edge to Young
Accuracy
Bryce Young
One of Young’s main selling points is the consistent placement on his passes and accuracy. This is one of the main components of projecting quarterbacks to the league and he certainly checks that box.
There are some concerns about Young’s ability to throw over the middle of the field in the NFL because of his size. These are valid concerns but Young did display accuracy to all levels of the field at Alabama, so accuracy shouldn’t be an issue for him whatsoever in the NFL.
C.J. Stroud
Stroud’s ultimate selling point is his accuracy. He does a good job of making contested catch type throws where he puts the ball in a spot where only his receiver has a chance to come down with it. The touch he’s able to put on his passes is truly elite and is the biggest reason many analysts consider him QB1 in the 2023 NFL draft class.
In 2021, his 79% adjusted completion percentage was the third best of any quarterback with at least 370 drop backs. This is particularly impressive when considering that he threw downfield quite a bit as well.
Slight edge to Stroud
Arm Strength
Bryce Young
Young’s arm strength can be considered good, but not great. It won’t be the reason he gets taken high in the draft, but it’s also not a negative to his game. He has shown the ability to throw downfield at Alabama and he has a good enough arm to do it in the NFL as well.
A concern about Young is his arm strength may not be quite enough to offset his lack of height. One big reason Kyler Murray is able to get away with being a short quarterback in the NFL is that the velocity he can put on his throws allows him to hit tight windows that a lot of quarterbacks can’t. Young will have to rely more so on his other qualities to offset his size concerns.
C.J. Stroud
Stroud’s arm isn’t at the elite level such as Anthony Richardson from this class, but he still has good arm strength. He’s someone who is capable of some high-difficulty throws that not all quarterbacks can make. His touch is his best trait but the velocity he utilizes to make tighter window throws also boosts his accuracy.
Very Slight edge to Stroud
Pocket Presence
Bryce Young
A key determining factor in the success of quarterbacks transitioning to the NFL is the ability to deal with pressure. This is something Young has proven that he can do at a very high level at Alabama. Not only can he scramble and extend plays, but he can sense where pressures coming from and navigate the pocket to get the ball out.
In 2022 he was pressured 144 times and managed to get sacked just 28 times for a pressure-to-sack percentage of 12.5, which is an impressive rate and bodes for his projection to the NFL.
C.J. Stroud
At Ohio State, Stroud was very good at not allowing pressures to turn into sacks, which is obviously good. However, at times he did have some issues dealing with pressure where instead of trying to navigate the pocket he’d instead bail out of the pocket prematurely and end up throwing the ball away.
Navigating the pocket isn’t absent from his game as there are examples of him doing it, but it will be something he will need to do more of in the NFL as he will face pressure more consistently.
Slight edge to Young
Out of Structure Ability
Bryce Young
Many times while playing quarterback, the play is going to break down and the passer is asked to make a play. Young did just that at Alabama with more consistency than just about any quarterback in this class. His ability to avoid sacks and extend plays is the reason even at his height he still has the ceiling of being a star in this league.
A play in particular in a big moment that stands out came against Texas. On the play, Texas had a free rusher off the edge and Young was able to lean forward just enough to make the defender fly past him and then take advantage of the green grass in front of him down the sideline for a big gain to put the Tide in field goal range.
C.J. Stroud
Any judgment on Stroud on his ability to deal with pressure and create out of structure depends on which game you watch. Throughout the season it was a big criticism of his that he didn’t use his legs well enough and would find trouble in the NFL where he won’t be able to sit in the pocket and deliver passes as consistently as he did at Ohio State.
However, Stroud responded to those criticisms by doing exactly what many said he couldn’t do against one of the best defenses in college football in Georgia. Stroud was not only using his legs to scramble and run, but also to avoid what looked like sure sacks, escape the pocket and find receivers downfield multiple times.
This makes Stroud’s evaluation in this area very intriguing. I tend to lean more towards the side that while I’m still concerned with his ability to deal with pressure and create offense outside of structure, I believe he was simply encouraged to avoid using his legs to preserve his health throughout the season.
Edge to Young
QB1 in 2023 NFL Draft: Final Evaluation
We will find out the NFL’s answer to this question very soon, but for now, all we can do is evaluate them ourselves and project. Ultimately, these are two talented quarterbacks and both are very good prospects worthy of very high draft picks. However, if I was the GM on a quarterback-needy team and they were both on the board, I’d take Young, which makes him QB1 in the 2023 NFL Draft for me.
The concerns about his size and how well he’ll be able to take hits and throw over the middle of the field are valid, but with all that Young brings to the table he makes up for it.
For Stroud, I would be concerned about his transition to the NFL. He certainly has all the tools to figure it out, but if he goes to a team that can’t put a good supporting cast around him I’m concerned about how he’ll fare.
Ultimately, these are two talented quarterbacks and both are very good prospects worthy of very high draft picks. Whichever fan base lands them should be excited for what’s to come.
